98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mike815]

anybody see the GFDL its crazy and scary all at the same time!

[cycloneye]

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NAMELESS 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.5 77.2 300./ 7.0
6 18.2 77.6 234./ 3.9
12 17.9 78.0 230./ 5.2
18 18.0 78.4 284./ 3.9
24 18.1 79.0 274./ 6.2
30 18.2 79.6 283./ 6.0
36 18.2 79.9 270./ 2.4
42 18.4 80.1 304./ 3.1
48 18.3 80.6 262./ 4.2
54 18.0 80.7 207./ 3.0
60 17.8 80.7 176./ 3.0
66 17.6 80.8 217./ 2.0
72 17.5 80.9 215./ 1.2
78 17.3 81.1 232./ 2.8
84 17.0 81.6 242./ 5.3
90 16.9 82.1 251./ 5.2
96 16.6 82.5 239./ 4.6
102 16.4 82.9 234./ 4.1
108 16.2 83.1 237./ 3.0
114 16.2 83.4 266./ 3.0
120 16.4 83.7 314./ 3.0
126 16.5 83.9 301./ 2.6




18z GFDL.

Wow it has it crawling all the way thru 126 hours.

[cycloneye]

14/2345 UTC 18.4N 77.6W OVERLAND 98 -- Atlantic Ocean


Still is inside Jamaica so no TD at 11 PM.

[wzrgirl1]

what you think is going to affect this storms path a few days from now?

I see a Michelle 99 type Scenario....Front pushing system NE no further west than Tampa and missing FL to the SE and E Is not impossible..I do see a Major Cane though...

I think Michelle was in 2001....correct me if I am wrong

[x-y-no]

anybody see the GFDL its crazy and scary all at the same time!

All the way down to 910mb ... Ouch!

[Derek Ortt]

it can still be classified as a TD even if it is overland. Some TC's have formed over land

[Noah]

Not one person responded to what i asked

Does anyone have an idea where this thing will head if it forms into anything????

[Brent]

:hmm: Not one person responded to what i asked

Does anyone have an idea where this thing will head if it forms into anything????

Nowhere for a few days.

[LarryWx]

If the Euro track was right though Florida wouldn't be threatened.

Actually, this Euro run fwiw then recurves it so abruptly that after it having moved WNWerly on FRI morning, it is already moving ENEward by SAT evening 10/22. It then crosses the W FL coast near Ft. Myers while continuing to move ENEward as a strengthening 983 mb hurricane SUN AM 10/23 while accelerating to over 20 mph. By SUN evening, it has already passed ENEward offshore via Melbourne and then it moves well out to sea.

[curtadams]

I'm glad the GFDL pretty reliably overestimates storms - because that is one terrifying track. A large Cat 5 slowly grinding ashore on Honduras - man, it doesn't get worse than that. It looks like the convection is S of Jamaica, though, and the GFDL starts it N.

[Brent]

I'm glad the GFDL pretty reliably overestimates storms - because that is one terrifying track. A large Cat 5 slowly grinding ashore on Honduras - man, it doesn't get worse than that. It looks like the convection is S of Jamaica, though, and the GFDL starts it N.

Not another Mitch...

[LAwxrgal]

I'm glad the GFDL pretty reliably overestimates storms - because that is one terrifying track. A large Cat 5 slowly grinding ashore on Honduras - man, it doesn't get worse than that. It looks like the convection is S of Jamaica, though, and the GFDL starts it N.

Not another Mitch...

Ugh. That area's still recovering from Stan. That would be horrible if that pans out.

[cat_6]

it appears as if the GFDL is forecasting a category 5 storm brushing or heading into Honduras. Has anything like this ever happened?

[x-y-no]

If the Euro track was right though Florida wouldn't be threatened.

Actually, this Euro run fwiw then recurves it so abruptly that after it having moved WNWerly on FRI morning, it is already moving ENEward by SAT evening 10/22. It then crosses the W FL coast near Ft. Myers while continuing to move ENEward as a strengthening 983 mb hurricane SUN AM 10/23 while accelerating to over 20 mph. By SUN evening, it has already passed ENEward offshore via Melbourne and then it moves well out to sea.

I've never seen Euro runs beyond 7 days. Where are you getting this from?

[Brent]

it appears as if the GFDL is forecasting a category 5 storm brushing or heading into Honduras. Has anything like this ever happened?

It wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall... but it pounded the coastline for 2 days before finally moving inland. Killed at least 9,000...

and it was in Late October.

[LarryWx]

If the Euro track was right though Florida wouldn't be threatened.

Actually, this Euro run fwiw then recurves it so abruptly that after it having moved WNWerly on FRI morning, it is already moving ENEward by SAT evening 10/22. It then crosses the W FL coast near Ft. Myers while continuing to move ENEward as a strengthening 983 mb hurricane SUN AM 10/23 while accelerating to over 20 mph. By SUN evening, it has already passed ENEward offshore via Melbourne and then it moves well out to sea.

I've never seen Euro runs beyond 7 days. Where are you getting this from?

Actually, the averaged days 8-10 are and have been available for free. For day by day 8-10, you have to pay for it. That's why I can't show them here. There are various vendors out there that sell them, but I don't think any are cheap. ECMWF, itself, may very well offer it directly.

[mtm4319]

The max 950mb wind on the GFDL animation page are subject to a 75-85% reduction -- meaning GFDL is not forecasting a cat 5, but a 108-122kt cat 3 or cat 4.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL982005) ON 20051015 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051015 0000 051015 1200 051016 0000 051016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 76.5W 17.9N 77.1W 18.2N 77.6W 18.7N 77.8W
BAMM 17.7N 76.5W 18.0N 77.2W 18.5N 77.9W 19.0N 78.4W
A98E 17.7N 76.5W 17.8N 76.7W 18.2N 77.2W 18.6N 77.6W
LBAR 17.7N 76.5W 18.1N 77.2W 19.1N 77.7W 20.6N 77.5W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051017 0000 051018 0000 051019 0000 051020 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 77.6W 18.1N 77.7W 17.8N 78.8W 18.4N 80.1W
BAMM 19.3N 78.5W 18.2N 79.3W 17.0N 81.6W 16.2N 85.0W
A98E 18.4N 77.9W 18.2N 79.5W 17.7N 81.2W 17.8N 83.0W
LBAR 22.1N 76.5W 25.3N 72.2W 30.9N 64.5W 34.9N 50.6W
SHIP 61KTS 72KTS 71KTS 64KTS
DSHP 46KTS 57KTS 57KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 76.1W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 76.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Model Guidance.

[wxmann_91]

The max 950mb wind on the GFDL animation page are subject to a 75-85% reduction -- meaning GFDL is not forecasting a cat 5, but a 108-122kt cat 3 or cat 4.

Pressure is indicative of a Cat 5 though, down to 910 mb at the second to last frame.

[x-y-no]

The max 950mb wind on the GFDL animation page are subject to a 75-85% reduction -- meaning GFDL is not forecasting a cat 5, but a 108-122kt cat 3 or cat 4.

Never quite understood how the reduction is supposed to work in a case like this where the sea level pressure is 40mb lower than the reference pressure.

What's the rule, really, if there is one?