TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

JamesFromMaine2 · #161 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:23 pm

Matt your really driving me crazy! Would you please explain why you say very slow development is likely and nothing more?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #162 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:24 pm

Damar91 wrote:Anyone see this?

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Caymans

The chairman of the Cayman Islands' National Hurricane Center, Donovan Ebanks, said authorities had been monitoring the weather for several days.

"Because of where it is, and the fact that it is projected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow and possibly a hurricane in a couple of days, we've decided to go ahead and issue a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch," he said.

link:http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=1102850&tw=wn_wire_story

Ok

Weatherfreak14 · #163 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:24 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There doe's not seem to be a central core. In the cirualtion is still broad...Convection has formed in bands away from the LLC. Very slow development is likely...But no more.

TWC is calling for rapid development.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #164 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:26 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:Matt your really driving me crazy! Would you please explain why you say very slow development is likely and nothing more?

Its a broad cirualtion. It would need time to tighten a central core. In which deep convection needs to form over it to do so. Once it gets that then this may bomb into a Mitchelle or stronger.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #165 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:27 pm

To give credit where credit is due:

Congrats to Joe Bastardi for Nailing this system days in advance
(last Wednesday).

CalmBeforeStorm · #166 Postby **CalmBeforeStorm** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There doe's not seem to be a central core. In the cirualtion is still broad...Convection has formed in bands away from the LLC. Very slow development is likely...But no more.

I disagree because other then concentrated convection at the center, overall organization is excellent with very good outflow showing a very evident anticylone aloft and banding features clearly forming. Once convection concentrates around the center I think this could intensify very quickly. I am not aware of a single negative factor for intensification.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #167 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:29 pm

Congrats Joe Bastardi

Website · #168 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:31 pm

Damar91 wrote:Anyone see this?

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Caymans

The chairman of the Cayman Islands' National Hurricane Center, Donovan Ebanks, said authorities had been monitoring the weather for several days.

"Because of where it is, and the fact that it is projected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow and possibly a hurricane in a couple of days, we've decided to go ahead and issue a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch," he said.

link:http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=1102850&tw=wn_wire_story

It's probably true... 11pm advisory anytime. The 5pm stated it could be issued later tonight.

Stratosphere747 · #169 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:33 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:To give credit where credit is due:

Congrats to Joe Bastardi for Nailing this system days in advance
(last Wednesday).

If the NHC and a good bit of their forecasters could take their "gloves off" so to speak, they would have "nailed" this as well....

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #170 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:36 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:To give credit where credit is due:

Congrats to Joe Bastardi for Nailing this system days in advance
(last Wednesday).

If the NHC and a good bit of their forecasters could take their "gloves off" so to speak, they would have "nailed" this as well....

Oh Yes NHC is the master no doubt
Joe Bastardi also ranks high, but not as high as NHC.
Congrats to both NHC and JB this season :wink:

fasterdisaster · #171 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:37 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There doe's not seem to be a central core. In the cirualtion is still broad...Convection has formed in bands away from the LLC. Very slow development is likely...But no more.

I disagree because other then concentrated convection at the center, overall organization is excellent with very good outflow showing a very evident anticylone aloft and banding features clearly forming. Once convection concentrates around the center I think this could intensify very quickly. I am not aware of a single negative factor for intensification.

Matt, seriously, it's organizing, it is better looking than earlier today, and the pressure is estimated lower, and I agree with that estimate.

Website · #172 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:47 pm

NHC says "slowly organizing" on the 11pm advisory. :wink:

fasterdisaster · #173 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:47 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There doe's not seem to be a central core. In the cirualtion is still broad...Convection has formed in bands away from the LLC. Very slow development is likely...But no more.

I disagree because other then concentrated convection at the center, overall organization is excellent with very good outflow showing a very evident anticylone aloft and banding features clearly forming. Once convection concentrates around the center I think this could intensify very quickly. I am not aware of a single negative factor for intensification.

Matt-how about this from the 11:00 advisory:

SLOWLY MOVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN

fasterdisaster · #174 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:48 pm

Brent wrote:NHC says "slowly organizing" on the 11pm advisory.

Actually they say gradually organizing!!! :eek:

texasweatherwatcher · #175 Postby **texasweatherwatcher** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:49 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #176 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:49 pm

I agree it is slowly organizing...But only slowly at the time. I expect durning the next 12 hours a ball of convection to form over the LLC. Then the action should start.

fasterdisaster · #177 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:52 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I agree it is slowly organizing...But only slowly at the time. I expect durning the next 12 hours a ball of convection to form over the LLC. Then the action should start.

That is not what you said. You said that it very slowly develop, and in my book, strengthening considerably in the next 24 hours is not very slow.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #178 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:53 pm

The quastion is when will it form a central core=central core of convection. With out it most likely will be slow development but with it things get interesting.

DESTRUCTION5 · #179 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:55 pm

Slow, not slow..WTF? Bottom Line is we will most likely be looking at a Cat 3 + in 4 days ...No more questions asked..There is nothing that will Impede strengthening here..

fasterdisaster · #180 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:56 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The quastion is when will it form a central core=central core of convection. With out it most likely will be slow development but with it things get interesting.

Yes, but if you are predicting a core of convection to flare up, then why did you predict it would develop very slowly?

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