TS Aletta,Sat. Images,Comments,Models,Advisories,Etc. Thread

[HURAKAN]

ALETTA SAYS BYE TO THIS CRUEL WORLD!

[NONAME]

na na na na, na na na na hey hey hey goodbye.

[Epsilon_Fan]

lol, the thing looks like it is spinning the wrong way now... Aletta is being shredded

[JonathanBelles]

time to change the title: its a TD




000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300229
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
800 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006

ALETTA IS STRUGGLING FOR SURVIVAL. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. AN AMSR-E IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS POORLY DEFINED. THE
SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...AS WELL AS THE
CURRENTLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALETTA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT TREND...WOULD APPEAR TO
MITIGATE AGAINST RE-STRENGTHENING. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ALETTA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE LATTER
EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY WESTWARD...270/3. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 16.0N 102.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 15.8N 103.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 15.7N 104.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 15.6N 105.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$

[HURAKAN]

I bet the last advisory will be issued at 5 AM EDT if a miracle doesn't happen!!!

[JonathanBelles]

just looking at satellite and i cannot find aletta.

question: is it alright to post advisories or is that for moderators only?

[HURAKAN]

just looking at satellite and i cannot find aletta.

question: is it alright to post advisories or is that for moderators only?

If you find the advisories earlier than anyone else, post it. Our duty here is to bring the lastest information as early as possible no matter if you are a moderator, a pro-met, amateur, or weather watcher.

[JonathanBelles]

thanx hurakan

[wxmann_91]

I bet the last advisory will be issued at 5 AM EDT if a miracle doesn't happen!!!

They'd probably wait for visibles to downgrade it.

[StormScanWx]

This is StormScanWx, saying a final good bye to Aletta. (until the name is used again in the year 2012!)

[whereverwx]

Before:


After:


Ouch. lol

[CrazyC83]

I think this thing is dead. Next advisory should be the last.

[Epsilon_Fan]

I bid Aletta adieu... the first of many storms in the Western Hemisphere this summer... if only all of them could be like her

[Ivan14]

It looks like its a goner.

[Brent]

Bye-bye Aletta.

[P.K.]

30/0545 UTC 16.3N 102.5W T1.0/2.0 ALETTA -- East Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

30kts still despite the above estimate.

WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
0900Z TUE MAY 30 2006


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.3N 106.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 111.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 300857
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006

DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN ABSENT FROM ALETTA FOR ABOUT EIGHT HOURS
UNTIL IT RESUMED AROUND 04Z THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RECENT BURST HAS
PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS... THE CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT WELL
ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PASSING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... INDICATIVE OF
THE INCREASING SHEAR THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS
SMALL CYCLONE SINCE YESTERDAY... AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAIRLY
STABLE AND DRY. GIVEN HOW MUCH ALETTA HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST THESE
CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND SINCE WESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ROUGHLY DOUBLE IN MAGNITUDE DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS... A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY
SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.0N 102.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.2W 25 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/0600Z 15.3N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[HURAKAN]

Convection is back and Aletta keeps going!

[CHRISTY]

ALETTA wont be around for to long because shear is forcast to double in magnitude during the next 24-36 hours.