INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[cheezyWXguy]

thats not 93L...thats the other system...93L is at 7N 47W...I think the one at 10N 45 W could become 94L before it reaches the islands in 2 days or so or maybe even a TD after it hits the islands...I see more potential with that storm than 93L...its also bigger

cheezywxman, that is still part of the same tropical wave. we would generally consider it all together.

Oh! I couldve sworn those were two different systems...In that case I think the dominant center is probably going to end up with 10N 45W, IMO

[bvigal]

If they would just say "development is not expected" instead of "significant development is not expected", then I would quit watching it right now! But, even some development has great effect upon mariners and tourism, so we here in the islands watch this stuff closely, even if it isn't something we expect to be an official "storm".

WHERE IS LUIS TODAY???? I miss him!!! Is he OK, does anyone know??

[DESTRUCTION5]

who has a good Sat view if this system? Its in the middle of my typical views...

[bvigal]

who has a good Sat view if this system? Its in the middle of my typical views...

System is on float #2 at SSD Tropical page,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

who has a good Sat view if this system? Its in the middle of my typical views...

System is on float #2 at SSD Tropical page,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Thks

[gatorcane]

Nice spin to it and some deeper reds are showing up. Looks somewhat promising for this time of year.

[bvigal]

here is this morning's scatterometer. Look at far left-hand side of pic.
Also try 112 and 100
Ship and buoy reports - rising pressure!
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi 8th ft ft sec ° ft sec ° Acc Ice
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
41041 B 1250 14.53 -46.00 296 337 90 19.4 21.4 8.2 8 - - 30.04 +0.03 80.2 80.1 74.5 - - - - - - - - - ---- -----
SHIP S 1200 9.20 -49.50 329 262 40 19.4 - - - - - 29.97 - 80.6 - 73.0 12.4 4 - - - - - - - ---- -----
SHIP S 1200 6.80 -48.50 329 235 50 15.5 - 3.3 2.0 - - 29.97 +0.03 77.9 81.5 74.1 6.2 8 - 6.6 4.0 50 - - - ---- -----
SHIP S 1200 3.40 -47.60 450 209 120 15.5 - 1.6 3.0 - - 29.92 +0.01 79.3 81.9 73.6 12.4 7 - 4.9 4.0 100 - - - ---- -----
4 observations reported for 1200 GMT

[wxman57]

Here's a new GARP visible shot with surface plots. The area to watch is NOT the little eddy down by 6N-7N but the crest of the wave to the east (in the yellow square). That's where to watch for possible development - the crest of the wave that may break off and start spinning.

For now, it's just a wave. There is no LLC at all. Convection is minimal, and I don't expect any development for the next 4-5 days until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

[bvigal]

Thanks for posting that wxman57. Yes, several of us have mentioned and are watching that area, rather than the one down at 7N.

They haven't run any models on this for over 12 hrs, and I suspect it is dropped for now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

93L still has some pretty deep convection to it, but that system above it looks like it has alot better potential.

[drezee]

116
WHXX01 KWBC 261643
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060626 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060626 1200 060627 0000 060627 1200 060628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 7.8N 46.0W 8.7N 49.3W 9.7N 52.6W 10.8N 55.8W
BAMM 7.8N 46.0W 8.5N 49.8W 9.4N 53.7W 10.3N 57.2W
A98E 7.8N 46.0W 8.3N 48.1W 9.1N 50.5W 10.1N 53.1W
LBAR 7.8N 46.0W 8.3N 48.9W 9.3N 52.5W 10.3N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 23KTS 25KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 23KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060628 1200 060629 1200 060630 1200 060701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 58.9W 14.5N 64.9W 17.8N 69.9W 20.7N 73.7W
BAMM 11.2N 60.7W 13.4N 67.0W 16.0N 72.6W 18.0N 78.1W
A98E 11.1N 55.7W 14.1N 61.3W 17.0N 66.4W 19.9N 70.5W
LBAR 11.2N 59.9W 13.8N 66.1W 17.3N 70.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 31KTS 44KTS 48KTS 49KTS
DSHP 31KTS 44KTS 48KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.8N LONCUR = 46.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 7.5N LONM12 = 44.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.2N LONM24 = 42.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[drezee]

Here's a new GARP visible shot with surface plots. The area to watch is NOT the little eddy down by 6N-7N but the crest of the wave to the east (in the yellow square). That's where to watch for possible development - the crest of the wave that may break off and start spinning.

For now, it's just a wave. There is no LLC at all. Convection is minimal, and I don't expect any development for the next 4-5 days until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Since I just had this conversation with Derek, what makes you believe that the system to the NE is not a LLC?

[Steve H.]

Well excuse my previous sarcasm, but its still relatively early in the season folks, so let's not get too carried away with every swirl out there. However, the area that wxman57 boxed in Yellow (call it what you will - 93/94/102L) may have a window of development if the shear in the Caribbean abates during the next few days. Worth watching so let's see what happens. PS: Currently T'storms on the east coast of Florida as of noon, and a lot of much-needed rain.

[no advance]

Looks to me like this system is trying to organize itself.

[wxman57]

Here's a new GARP visible shot with surface plots. The area to watch is NOT the little eddy down by 6N-7N but the crest of the wave to the east (in the yellow square). That's where to watch for possible development - the crest of the wave that may break off and start spinning.

For now, it's just a wave. There is no LLC at all. Convection is minimal, and I don't expect any development for the next 4-5 days until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Since I just had this conversation with Derek, what makes you believe that the system to the NE is not a LLC?

I don't see any evidence of rotation at the surface on high-res satellite loops. And it's still attached to the wave. Generally, watch for the "blob" to detach from the crest of the wave and then begin spinning.

[drezee]

Here's a new GARP visible shot with surface plots. The area to watch is NOT the little eddy down by 6N-7N but the crest of the wave to the east (in the yellow square). That's where to watch for possible development - the crest of the wave that may break off and start spinning.

For now, it's just a wave. There is no LLC at all. Convection is minimal, and I don't expect any development for the next 4-5 days until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Since I just had this conversation with Derek, what makes you believe that the system to the NE is not a LLC?

I don't see any evidence of rotation at the surface on high-res satellite loops. And it's still attached to the wave. Generally, watch for the "blob" to detach from the crest of the wave and then begin spinning.

I also have access to the high res loops. PLease look at the visible loops from the last two days until now. You can clearly see two LLC's, unless you mean it has opened up in the last few hours. I expect the two to become one. In order to do that, they must both "open" up to a point(neither seems to be dominant).

It is not going to develop in the next 12 hours. The LLC that is Invest 93L is now elongating to the north in response to the low pressure from to the immediate NE. They will come together to make one elogated low tonight. By tomorrow, the low pressure should begin to tighten in response to the ever increasing heat content and gain in latitude. It should be a bonifide tight LLC again in less than 48 hours. At that time, I would guess that if the environment has softened a bit...it should further develop right before or going through the islands.

[wxman57]

I also have access to the high res loops. PLease look at the visible loops from the last two days until now. You can clearly see two LLC's, unless you mean it has opened up in the last few hours. I expect the two to become one. In order to do that, they must both "open" up to a point(neither seems to be dominant).

On the high res loops, I can see some evidence of a circulation aloft but not at the surface. It's a little tricky, you need to focus only on the very lowest cloud elements and ignore the mid and upper-level clouds that appear to be rotating. When I focus on the tiny cumulus clouds just above theh surface, I don't see any evidence of an LLC.

[canegrl04]

Lots of invests but so far nothing developing significantly This is a weird way to start out a cane season.Wake me when a td finally forms

[no advance]

# 57wxman What do you think? 8.5N 47W

[no advance]

I am sorry it is more north like you said. Lookin for something to spin off the ITZ