NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

#161 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:58 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 24.1N 126.3E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 190NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 28.3N 124.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 100600UTC 34.3N 123.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 110600UTC 44.3N 124.9E 270NM 70%
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT

#162 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 5:11 am

Model guidance:

FXPQ20 RJTD 080600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME T 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
PSTN 080600UTC 24.1N 126.3E
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 80KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 25.5N 125.8E -003HPA -009KT
T=12 26.9N 125.0E -012HPA -007KT
T=18 27.9N 124.7E -015HPA -001KT
T=24 29.3N 124.7E -013HPA -006KT
T=30 30.6N 124.7E -008HPA -007KT
T=36 32.3N 124.6E -005HPA -008KT
T=42 34.0N 124.7E +002HPA -014KT
T=48 36.1N 124.6E +009HPA -023KT
T=54 38.0N 124.3E +015HPA -028KT
T=60 40.1N 124.3E +022HPA -040KT
T=66 43.3N 125.3E +028HPA -051KT
T=72 47.4N 125.8E +028HPA -058KT
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

WTPQ30 RJTD 080600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 080600 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

#163 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:16 am

WindRunner · #164 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:46 am

JMA track takes it in around the North Korea/China border, probably as a 50-55kt storm.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 24.7N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 190NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 29.2N 124.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 100600UTC 34.3N 123.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 110600UTC 44.3N 124.9E 270NM 70%
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT =
NNNN

#165 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:02 pm

Yes it looks it may make landfall as a Severe Tropical Storm if it hasn't gone extra-tropical by then.

Down to 75kts now.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 25.6N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 90NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 250NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 30.4N 124.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
45HF 101200UTC 36.3N 124.3E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 111200UTC 45.0N 128.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

WindRunner · #166 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:18 pm

Now at 70kts, and forecast to landfall right at the 48hr mark (i.e. as a 40kt TS), still on North Korea/China border. Track.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 27.5N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 90NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 250NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 32.8N 124.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 110000UTC 39.0N 124.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 120000UTC 46.0N 133.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #167 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:19 pm

Looks like its strengthing again. Cold cloud tops with a eye starting to form...I say 75 knots.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #168 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:21 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/090152JUL06//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.6N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.4N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.8N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 125.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z,
091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
05W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

#169 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 2:36 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 29.3N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 35.4N 126.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 110600UTC 41.4N 127.8E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

#170 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 5:20 am

Pressure is up 5hPa to 965hPa.

WTPQ20 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 30.0N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 36.3N 125.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 110600UTC 41.4N 127.8E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

#171 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 5:02 pm

No change.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 32.6N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 38.2N 128.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 111800UTC 43.7N 134.6E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #172 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 5:35 pm

Aloha everyone. Just chiming in... I just returned to America from the Philippines. Thanks to this storm, (it's feeder bands), I missed my connection in Manila, causing me to arrive at my final destination 36 hours late. Joy.

#173 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 6:07 pm

Ah, ran afoul of the typhoon induced monsoon surge you did. It's actually
fairly amazing at how far off to the NE of Luzon a storm can be to kick off one of those. However, they generally end once a storm passes clear of Okinawa. Take a look at the track of STY Rita in 1972 sometime as well as the other storms that occurred at the same time and you will realize how Clark AB got 89.6 inches of rain in 25 days in July of that year (and Clark is in the rainshadow of the Zambales Mountains). As I said last year, the name Rita had a nasty reputation in WPAC going way back (as Katrina did for EPAC).

Steve

#174 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 6:18 pm

Landfall in South Korea isn't too far off. The South Korean radar can be found at http://www.kma.go.kr/eng/wis/wis03_cw04.jsp. The hourly position can be seen at http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0603_l.html?type=2.

WindRunner · #175 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 7:46 pm

And definately taking on an ET look as it does landfall.

#176 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 09, 2006 7:47 pm

senorpepr wrote:Aloha everyone. Just chiming in... I just returned to America from the Philippines. Thanks to this storm, (it's feeder bands), I missed my connection in Manila, causing me to arrive at my final destination 36 hours late. Joy.

Welcome back Mike... hope you had a good time.

#177 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:25 am

Downgraded from a Severe Tropical Storm. The centre of the storm is almost over Seoul now.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 35.5N 126.5E GOOD
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 41.2N 132.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

#178 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:46 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 36.8N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 42.6N 133.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

#179 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:55 am

BYE EWINIAR, SEE YOU IN A FEW YEARS!!!

#180 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:59 am

I forgot to add at least five people have now died in South Korea as a result of this storm. Various news articles can be found here.

NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

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