96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[boca]

Rockyman lets see what 96L looks like tomorrow morning in this high shear.

[GeneratorPower]

What effect would the upper anticyclone have on the shear? (Beginner's question)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow look at that shear form at 50 to 55 west...But upper level Anticyclone is centered right over it with 5 to 10 knot shear. Lets see if its strong enough to protect the system.

[SouthFloridawx]

What effect would the upper anticyclone have on the shear? (Beginner's question)

Doesn't an anti cyclone cause upper level divergence thus creating favorable conditions for development?

[canegrl04]

It will be very interesting to see if this wave can hold up thru tomorrow.If it does,I say we have ourselves a player

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The gfs earlier today was showing the Anticyclone moving with the system. The cmc kills the Anticyclone. But the gfs has been for the last 5 runs about the same.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What effect would the upper anticyclone have on the shear? (Beginner's question)

Doesn't an anti cyclone cause upper level divergence thus creating favorable conditions for development?

Yes, it causes air to move away from the developing surface low pressure at the upper levels. So air can rise=pressures to lower at the surface. Also protects the system from upper level shear.

[SouthFloridawx]

What effect would the upper anticyclone have on the shear? (Beginner's question)

Doesn't an anti cyclone cause upper level divergence thus creating favorable conditions for development?

Yes, it causes air to move away from the developing surface low pressure at the upper levels. So air can rise=pressures to lower at the surface. Also protects the system from upper level shear.

How does it keep it protected from upper level shear and at what level in the atmostphere is an anti cyclone typically found. 500mb?

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS organizes it a little and then kills it off in the caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

GFS organizes it a little and then kills it off in the caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Let's see what the 00z run will show shortly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

200 to 300 milibars or around around Jet stream level. Which is from 27k to as high up as 60k(Top of the tropical Tropsphere) above the surface(300 millibars 27k,200 millibars around 36k?). What happens it pushs the Ull/Shear away from the cyclone/distrabance. A Anticyclone is a area of high pressure so the air is divergenging which outside the cyclone the air subsides around the cyclone. Which is why alot of times you can have sunny weather before hurricanes.

So take normal surface highs they push areas' of low pressure or jet streams north/around them. So you got a upper level area of high pressure forcing shear and ULL at the upper levels away. Which also vent to storm. Theres alot more.


The jet stream is normally strongest around 27 to 36k above the surface.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for that explination matt.. I kind of thought that is how it worked but, I wasn't sure about it pushing shear away from the system.

I would imagine the models don't do to well with the anti-cyclones and shear forecasting huh?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They don't do very well, thats there weakest area. The gfs been forecasting the same thing for about 3 or 4 runs.

[SouthFloridawx]

They don't do very well, thats there weakest area. The gfs been forecasting the same thing for about 3 or 4 runs.

That's why we'll have to watch this system. Eventhough high windshear is in front of it... if and ant-cyclone develops in the upper levels the windshear won't be a problem for this system. Of course that is all barring that gfs is correct on it's forecast.

[GeneratorPower]

Why is it that the storm floater infrared images don't update more frequently. I'm still showing a 2:15 UTC frame as the final picture, but it's 3:15 UTC now. I've hit refresh a million times.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is already a Anticyclone over the system. In the Gfs forecasts this to remain over the system. But the cmc knocks it down with this strong shear...While the gfs says no it will hold.

[SouthFloridawx]

[cheezyWXguy]

Yall are probably gonna go against me on this but im actualy looking forward to development...the more it organizes the better chance there is of it staying intact(duh). A previous AFD from houston that was stated earlier this morning in a post farther back in this thread said that theres a chance that the wave may make it to Texas...Im hoping it doesnt get too strong, but strong enough to remain intact until it makes landfall...im hoping to god it makes it to texas so it can bring some much needed rain to our state and hopefully make it up into the dallas area where i live. Remember, im not -removed- anything more than a moderate TS at most for this system...IN no way do I want to see a massive hurricane destroy the Texas coast.
Just some rain that will bring us closer to ending our drought

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Cheezywxman, I will loss my mind if this doe's not develope!

[GeneratorPower]

Drought... I hear ya. Over the past 18 months, North Alabama is some 24+ inches below normal. We usually get about 60" a year.