INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

[wxman22]

TD3 later tonight???.........

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow......I can't believe i'm saying this but.....that is a depression...no doubt about it.

[shaggy]

will be interesting to see what the models do with it if it does decide to develop! Anyone have any links steering currents if the system gains strentgh?

[Air Force Met]

Wow......I can't believe i'm saying this but.....that is a depression...no doubt about it.

Not yet. Still has certain criteria to meet by NHC standards.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow......I can't believe i'm saying this but.....that is a depression...no doubt about it.

Not yet. Still has certain criteria to meet by NHC standards.

If that were in the Gulf it would be a depression. I think any of you Pro mets here can admit to that

[drezee]

I hate these pescky little systems that just beat the odds and fight like H*ll. These are the ones that we always go back and talk about...the ones that man it almost died off but...then...if this system finds a piece of a good environment then I would not bet your money let alone mine against it

[Cyclenall]

If that were in the Gulf it would be a depression. I think any of you Pro mets here can admit to that

Nope. It still would have certain criteria to meet by NHC standards.

[Air Force Met]

Wow......I can't believe i'm saying this but.....that is a depression...no doubt about it.

Not yet. Still has certain criteria to meet by NHC standards.

If that were in the Gulf it would be a depression. I think any of you Pro mets here can admit to that

If it were in the GOM, the plane would have flown into it and we would have a real good idea what is happening. Bottom line though, according to the definition!...it is not a well defined center. NOw...if it were in the GOM...the chances of an upagrade B/W normal advisory times would be much higher...for sure.

[seaswing]

I hate these pescky little systems that just beat the odds and fight like H*ll. These are the ones that we always go back and talk about...the ones that man it almost died off but...then...if this system finds a piece of a good environment then I would not bet your money let alone mine against it

Like say Katrina or Wilma?

[Weatherfreak000]

What certain criteria needs to be met now?

[wxman57]

Y'all can continue your argument, I'll just post a few observations.

It does appear that 99L has a weak LLC located west of the convection. Winds on the west and southwest side appeat to be 15 kts or less. About 20-25 kts east of the center.

Movement appears to be to the WNW at about 15 kts.

The disturbance is located in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low, a region that tends to cause a flare-up of thunderstorms, as we've seen today.

Once the disturbance moves a bit more to the west-northwest, the enhanced lifting caused by the upper low will diminish. The big question is whether or not the upper low was able to jump-start the disturbance enough to keep the storms going after the enhanced lifting diminishes. That remains to be seen.

If not, then we'll have a weak swirl of clouds out there for a day or two until it encounters the 2nd upper low over the SE Bahamas. Once there, storms should flare up again.

If the convection maintains itself after passing the axis of the upper level trof tonight, then shear will briefly drop and a TD could form. It would move WNW and eventually interact with the stronger upper low over the SE Bahamas. Wind shear there is fairly strong. Could rip it apart.

Making it to the southeas or south-central Gulf as a TD/TS will be a difficult trek.

End of observations. Carry on with the arguments.

[wxman57]

What certain criteria needs to be met now?

Generally, the NHC won't upgrade a disturbance if there is no convection over the center.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Jeff Masters, of The Weather Underground, has a model image on his blog entry:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607

Quite a spread in 'em, thus far.

[AJC3]

Wow......I can't believe i'm saying this but.....that is a depression...no doubt about it.

Not yet. Still has certain criteria to meet by NHC standards.

If that were in the Gulf it would be a depression. I think any of you Pro mets here can admit to that

If it were in the GOM, the plane would have flown into it and we would have a real good idea what is happening. Bottom line though, according to the definition!...it is not a well defined center. NOw...if it were in the GOM...the chances of an upagrade B/W normal advisory times would be much higher...for sure.

Speaking of recon, I think I read that the discussion from Keesler stated that a Herc was already sent to the islands. If that's the case then I presume CARCAH would have them scramble up a flight before the next one that's scheduled in the TCPOD.

[Toadstool]

What happened to the GFDL model??

[Extremeweatherguy]

Y'all can continue your argument, I'll just post a few observations.

It does appear that 99L has a weak LLC located west of the convection. Winds on the west and southwest side appeat to be 15 kts or less. About 20-25 kts east of the center.

Movement appears to be to the WNW at about 15 kts.

The disturbance is located in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low, a region that tends to cause a flare-up of thunderstorms, as we've seen today.

Once the disturbance moves a bit more to the west-northwest, the enhanced lifting caused by the upper low will diminish. The big question is whether or not the upper low was able to jump-start the disturbance enough to keep the storms going after the enhanced lifting diminishes. That remains to be seen.

If not, then we'll have a weak swirl of clouds out there for a day or two until it encounters the 2nd upper low over the SE Bahamas. Once there, storms should flare up again.

If the convection maintains itself after passing the axis of the upper level trof tonight, then shear will briefly drop and a TD could form. It would move WNW and eventually interact with the stronger upper low over the SE Bahamas. Wind shear there is fairly strong. Could rip it apart.

Making it to the southeas or south-central Gulf as a TD/TS will be a difficult trek.

End of observations. Carry on with the arguments.

I agree wxman. It will be a difficult track for sure. The thing that scares me though is that if it can reach the Gulf, this thing might explode over the loop current like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, or Alberto did.

[WindRunner]

Actually, it's the discussion from Eglin, but yeah, if the danger was imminent enough, a plane would be out there now for sure.

[AJC3]

Y'all can continue your argument, I'll just post a few observations.

It does appear that 99L has a weak LLC located west of the convection. Winds on the west and southwest side appeat to be 15 kts or less. About 20-25 kts east of the center.

Movement appears to be to the WNW at about 15 kts.

The disturbance is located in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low, a region that tends to cause a flare-up of thunderstorms, as we've seen today.

Once the disturbance moves a bit more to the west-northwest, the enhanced lifting caused by the upper low will diminish. The big question is whether or not the upper low was able to jump-start the disturbance enough to keep the storms going after the enhanced lifting diminishes. That remains to be seen.

If not, then we'll have a weak swirl of clouds out there for a day or two until it encounters the 2nd upper low over the SE Bahamas. Once there, storms should flare up again.

If the convection maintains itself after passing the axis of the upper level trof tonight, then shear will briefly drop and a TD could form. It would move WNW and eventually interact with the stronger upper low over the SE Bahamas. Wind shear there is fairly strong. Could rip it apart.

Making it to the southeas or south-central Gulf as a TD/TS will be a difficult trek.

End of observations. Carry on with the arguments.

Chris, one minor point to pick. The TUTT low is actually pinching off due N of the system, hence the NNW shear - I think there's pretty strong divergence aloft nonetheless. As I mentioned in another post, I think this will allow it to sneak past and ahead of the TUTT low begins before it begins to retrograde WWD.

I'll go out on a limb and say this will have no trouble maintaining at lest some convection, although it will remain in a pretty parched air mass for the next 24 hours or so. From then on, I think it will intensify.

[senorpepr]

Speaking of recon, I think I read that the discussion from Keesler stated that a Herc was already sent to the islands. If that's the case then I presume CARCAH would have them scramble up a flight before the next one that's scheduled in the TCPOD.

A recon mission must have 24 hours lead time before take off. When they canx the mission this morning, the lead time begins all over.

(The crew is required 24 hours of rest before takeoff.)

[destro34]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/images/sm ... on_eek.gif
Surprised

they decide to give it more time..but it is a td....to me..luis please need help on this one..

000
ABNT20 KNHC 312116
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT JAMAICA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME