Hurricane Ioke thread
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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whereverwx
- Category 5
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277
WHXX01 KMIA 211917
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE IOKE (CP012006) ON 20060821 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 1800 060822 0600 060822 1800 060823 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 165.9W 14.6N 168.1W 16.4N 169.7W 17.7N 170.6W
BAMM 12.6N 165.9W 14.5N 168.2W 16.0N 169.9W 17.2N 171.1W
SHIP 100KTS 114KTS 114KTS 105KTS
DSHP 100KTS 114KTS 114KTS 105KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 1800 060825 1800 060826 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 171.0W 18.9N 172.3W 19.2N 174.3W 18.7N 176.9W
BAMM 17.9N 171.8W 18.7N 173.6W 19.4N 175.4W 19.1N 177.8W
SHIP 98KTS 82KTS 68KTS 53KTS
DSHP 98KTS 82KTS 68KTS 53KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 165.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 164.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 161.7W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 960MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 130NM
$$
18z Models initialized at 100kts. This may be a major hurricane at 5pm.
WHXX01 KMIA 211917
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE IOKE (CP012006) ON 20060821 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 1800 060822 0600 060822 1800 060823 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 165.9W 14.6N 168.1W 16.4N 169.7W 17.7N 170.6W
BAMM 12.6N 165.9W 14.5N 168.2W 16.0N 169.9W 17.2N 171.1W
SHIP 100KTS 114KTS 114KTS 105KTS
DSHP 100KTS 114KTS 114KTS 105KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 1800 060825 1800 060826 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 171.0W 18.9N 172.3W 19.2N 174.3W 18.7N 176.9W
BAMM 17.9N 171.8W 18.7N 173.6W 19.4N 175.4W 19.1N 177.8W
SHIP 98KTS 82KTS 68KTS 53KTS
DSHP 98KTS 82KTS 68KTS 53KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 165.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 164.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 161.7W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 960MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 130NM
$$
18z Models initialized at 100kts. This may be a major hurricane at 5pm.
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Here's the Dvorak estimate from CPHC...apparently the basis for upping the intensity up to 100 knots.
TXPN40 PHFO 211845
TCSCP
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1850 UTC MON AUG 21 2006
HURRICANE IOKE LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 165.9W AT 21/1730 UTC BASED ON
GOES-11 2 KM VISIBLE AND 4 KM IR RESOLUTION SECTORS AND ANIMATION.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND
SPEED 102 KT. MOVEMENT TOWARDS 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24 HOURS
REMARKS...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE WAS USED FOR CENTER POSITION. IR
IMAGERY INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATED
EYE POSITION...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF MID AND/OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE EYE WHICH SKEWS THE IR TEMPERATURE
DETERMINATION. IR EYE PATTERN YIELDS 5.0 VIA A SURROUNDING LG SHADE
THAT SATISFIES THE MINIMUM WIDTH REQUIREMENT OF .4 DEGREES. B SHADE
COMPLETELY ENCIRLES THE EYE BUT DID NOT MEET THE MINIMUM WIDTH
REQUIREMENT OF .5 DEGREES. EYE ADJUSTMENT OF .5 YIELDS DT OF 5.5.
MET IS 4.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT. FINAL T IS BASED ON DATA T
AND SATISFIES CONTRAINTS.
$$
TANABE
TXPN40 PHFO 211845
TCSCP
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1850 UTC MON AUG 21 2006
HURRICANE IOKE LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 165.9W AT 21/1730 UTC BASED ON
GOES-11 2 KM VISIBLE AND 4 KM IR RESOLUTION SECTORS AND ANIMATION.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND
SPEED 102 KT. MOVEMENT TOWARDS 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24 HOURS
REMARKS...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE WAS USED FOR CENTER POSITION. IR
IMAGERY INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATED
EYE POSITION...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF MID AND/OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE EYE WHICH SKEWS THE IR TEMPERATURE
DETERMINATION. IR EYE PATTERN YIELDS 5.0 VIA A SURROUNDING LG SHADE
THAT SATISFIES THE MINIMUM WIDTH REQUIREMENT OF .4 DEGREES. B SHADE
COMPLETELY ENCIRLES THE EYE BUT DID NOT MEET THE MINIMUM WIDTH
REQUIREMENT OF .5 DEGREES. EYE ADJUSTMENT OF .5 YIELDS DT OF 5.5.
MET IS 4.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT. FINAL T IS BASED ON DATA T
AND SATISFIES CONTRAINTS.
$$
TANABE
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
CrazyC83 wrote:My guess for 11 am HST: 100 mph based on better formation. Marginal Category 2.
Wow. You're usually very bullish. Only 100 mph?
That Dvorak estimate was made earlier this morning. I expect further intensification throughout the day. If I were CPHC, 120 mph.
This is undoubtedly the most organized hurricane in the CPAC since the 1994 season.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34009
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
000
WTPA32 PHFO 212058
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006
...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JOHNSTON ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS...
ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 795 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU.
IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...13.0 N...166.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/R BALLARD
WTPA32 PHFO 212058
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006
...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JOHNSTON ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS...
ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 795 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU.
IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...13.0 N...166.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/R BALLARD
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145950
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TCDCP2
HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006
HURRICANE IOKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH AN IMPROVED EYE PRESENTATION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE AGENCY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 90 KT TO 102 KT AND THE AODT ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 110 KT. AS A RESULT...HURRICANE IOKE HAS BEEN PUSHED UP TO 100 KT...OR CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WHICH MAKES IT A MAJOR HURRICANE.
IOKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT SOUTHWEST OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS...AND ALL OF THE DYNAMIC ONES...KEEP IOKE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5. WITH THE INITIAL LOCATION OF IOKE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH SLIGHTLY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS PEAKING AT 115 KT...WHICH IS STRONGER AND SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTERWARD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIP AND ICON.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.0N 166.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.3N 167.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.0N 169.4W 115 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.2N 170.7W 110 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 173.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.3N 175.4W 80 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 22.8N 177.8W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006
HURRICANE IOKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH AN IMPROVED EYE PRESENTATION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE AGENCY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 90 KT TO 102 KT AND THE AODT ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 110 KT. AS A RESULT...HURRICANE IOKE HAS BEEN PUSHED UP TO 100 KT...OR CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WHICH MAKES IT A MAJOR HURRICANE.
IOKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT SOUTHWEST OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS...AND ALL OF THE DYNAMIC ONES...KEEP IOKE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5. WITH THE INITIAL LOCATION OF IOKE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH SLIGHTLY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS PEAKING AT 115 KT...WHICH IS STRONGER AND SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTERWARD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIP AND ICON.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.0N 166.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.3N 167.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.0N 169.4W 115 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.2N 170.7W 110 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 173.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.3N 175.4W 80 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 22.8N 177.8W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34009
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.
It is quite different than the CPHC/NHC prediction, taking it westward and also intensifying it even more. Yes, I am now predicting a Category 5 hurricane - and it will make it across to become Super Typhoon Ioke. It is a bit farther north than the original prediction.
Current - 13.0/166.3 - 960mb - 115mph
12 hrs - 13.5/167.8 - 941mb - 145mph
24 hrs - 14.3/171.3 - 928mb - 160mph
36 hrs - 15.1/174.4 - 927mb - 150mph
48 hrs - 15.8/177.2 - 929mb - 150mph
60 hrs - 16.5/179.8E - 924mb - 155mph
72 hrs - 17.9/176.9E - 930mb - 150mph
96 hrs - 19.4/170.4E - 941mb - 140mph
120 hrs - 21.2/164.8E - 963mb - 115mph
It is quite different than the CPHC/NHC prediction, taking it westward and also intensifying it even more. Yes, I am now predicting a Category 5 hurricane - and it will make it across to become Super Typhoon Ioke. It is a bit farther north than the original prediction.
Current - 13.0/166.3 - 960mb - 115mph
12 hrs - 13.5/167.8 - 941mb - 145mph
24 hrs - 14.3/171.3 - 928mb - 160mph
36 hrs - 15.1/174.4 - 927mb - 150mph
48 hrs - 15.8/177.2 - 929mb - 150mph
60 hrs - 16.5/179.8E - 924mb - 155mph
72 hrs - 17.9/176.9E - 930mb - 150mph
96 hrs - 19.4/170.4E - 941mb - 140mph
120 hrs - 21.2/164.8E - 963mb - 115mph
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Iniki of 1992 was the strongest central pacific storm to form in at least the last 30 years...If not 100 years. It topped out at 125 knots=145 mph.
Looking at this system I would go with 105 knots now....What would make me say cat4? I will say that when the reds form a ring around the eye...In the 85h data closes off a full ring of convection around the eye. This still gots some work.
I say 120 knots by 24 to 30 hours.
Looking at this system I would go with 105 knots now....What would make me say cat4? I will say that when the reds form a ring around the eye...In the 85h data closes off a full ring of convection around the eye. This still gots some work.
I say 120 knots by 24 to 30 hours.
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WindRunner
- Category 5
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HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
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- Location: College Station, TX
HOLY COW!! THE TROPICS ARE HEATING UP ALL OVER THE WORLD!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Derek Ortt
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