Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[AussieMark]

I didn't think forward motion was worked into the winds L always thought that theory was pure fiction

maybe I am wrong tho

[clfenwi]

One more piece of data to throw into the bowl... microwave satellite data...
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
Friday 25aug06 Time: 0541 UTC
Latitude: 12.55 Longitude: -63.91
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 26 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 1005 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 35 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.18
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.34 (channel used for estimate)
RMW: 232 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-18
ATCF data for Month: 08 Day: 25 Time (UTC): 0600

[Normandy]

I didn't think forward motion was worked into the winds L always thought that theory was pure fiction

maybe I am wrong tho

No it is worked into the advisories....so this TD has 30 mph winds at the highest....likely in the northern quad since its moving west. The winds in the southern quadrant may be 15-20 mph.


Take Andrew for example..... In its northern Eyewall Tamiami Airport recorded sustained 110 kt winds for 30 mins+ (And it was 9 miles inland), while Andrew's southern eyewall only produced 99 kt ten-minute winds on the coast....while HRD maps have a 153 kt area of wind in their windfield maps for Andrew (updated)...

Basically.....
Andrew's Northern Quad = 175-180 mph
Andrew's Southern QUad = 120? mph+ (The 99 kt reading was 10 mins, so the 1 min sustained wind is unkown that the coast).

FYI Andrew was moving west at 22 mph or something like that.

[Windspeed]

No visible to be 100% sure, but I think the LLC may be running out ahead of the deep convection. IR and shortwave imagery is hinting at this:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v294/Windspeed/180.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v294/Windspeed/ir2.jpg

The LLC has likely strengthened since recon was out there yesterday since convection has been persistant and close or over the center for most of the evening to allow pressures to fall. However, the LLC may not have slowed in forward speed as much as I thought it had last night. With there still being some 10kt westerly flow right into the western side of the storm and somewhat stronger 300mb southwesterly flow over the northwest side, the system is obviously still being hindered by shear:

Mid-level shear has increased since last night:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html

Upper-level shear is still strong on northwest and northern sides of the system:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Ernesto may be a TS now, but it will continue to fight shear on the west side of the circulation until the TUTT cuts off into an ULL and begins to move west faster than Ernesto and some upper ridging can build north out of western Venezuala and Colombia.

[clfenwi]

No visible to be 100% sure, but I think the LLC may be running out ahead of the deep convection. ...

That was the concern of the NHC forecaster given in the discussion as a reason for not upgrading the depression. He thinks that the LLC is on the western edge of the convection, while the estimated positions in the agencies' estimates were under the convection (thereby inflating the estimate).

[Windspeed]

No visible to be 100% sure, but I think the LLC may be running out ahead of the deep convection. ...

That was the concern of the NHC forecaster given in the discussion as a reason for not upgrading the depression. He thinks that the LLC is on the western edge of the convection, while the estimated positions in the agencies' estimates were under the convection (thereby inflating the estimate).

Yes, I also keep making the mistake of calling this Ernesto prematurely. But I think even though the convection may be struggling to fully wrap the LLC, it's had enough bursts to help lower pressures. We may still have a TS when recon gets out there tommorrow. Of course, the shear isn't so intense convection cannot keep firing at or over the center through the morning, even if it continues being displaced eastward. I think this system really has to slow down though if it is going to intensify much before 72 hours. If it gets too far west or wnw too quickly, even if the TUTT breaks into an ULL and begins retrograding, the LLC could get caught under the east side of the ULL and remain in a hostile environment.

[caneman]

Totally diagree with not upgrading to TS. The most impressive TD I have ever seen. Take a look,

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[caneman]

I mean the whole system has intense convection.

[Fego]

A TD???

[AussieMark]

Here is TD #5 at the moment

looks pretty decent

[rnbaida]

look at that huge blod blog of convection.... that is defenitly at a TS

[rnbaida]

the NHC is making a misatake in not upgrading this system. I bet if they had a recon the system would 100% be a TS... All it take it the satellite image to prove that it is a TS

[rockyman]

The center appears to be on the west edge of the convection...based on shortwave IR...If you watch this loop, you can see a persistent notch (using NHC's word) on the west side of system...Shear doesn't look THAT bad, so I'm guessing that the fast forward speed is contributing to the LLC running ahead of the main convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[rnbaida]

The center appears to be on the west edge of the convection...based on shortwave IR...If you watch this loop, you can see a persistent notch (using NHC's word) on the west side of system...Shear doesn't look THAT bad, so I'm guessing that the fast forward speed is contributing to the LLC running ahead of the main convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

well i see that, I am worried that thr shear may play a major role in the system.. The NHC said they would not be suprised if the system dissapated...

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a TS with that deep of convection and maybe an indication that the LLC has tucked under it, we should no more when the visibles come,

Remember that Recon indicated yesterday that there were several competing lows. I would not be at all surprised to find that another low has taken over and is under that deep convection/

[rnbaida]

I am sure it is a TD... I bet 100% that it will be a TS at 11am today...

[Scorpion]

Wow some very deep convection now.

[skysummit]

Wow...up to 50kts of westerly shear now in the Central Carribean. Now, will it be there when this system arrives?

[caneman]

The ULL looks to be retreating NW towards the Gulf now and some models have forecasted. Is this what the GFS< GFDl and now CMC are seeing with more of a turn to the North?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[skysummit]