TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Vortex]

Ernesto has all the ingredients in the days to come necessary to become a major hurricane. As the ULL continues moving to the sw the environment aloft will become very conducive for development. In fact, what has been holding Ernesto back from strengthening will aide in ventilating the system in 2-3 days. A low-shear environment, high oceanic heat content, and late August is the perfect set-up for the development of a severe hurricane in the GOM next week. IMO residents of NE Texas and LA may be faced with a cat 3-4 around Thursday. All resident of the Gulf Coast really need to pay close attention to Ernesto.

[temujin]

EWG
little to no effect on the FINAL strength of the system so right now it is being sheared but this will be a mute point and just DELAY the inevitable (hurricane)

That's what I keep thinking.

[whereverwx]

Ernesto seems to be trying to establish an upper level anticyclone. I hope I have the terminology correct, but his outflow does appear to be improving.

Any comments on this statement would be appreciated.

Well, I haven't been following the satellite evolution...but when I evaluate upper level outflo I like to take a look at the upper level winds at CIMSS and look for anticyclonic winds over the storm:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

And divergence:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Not a clear upper level anticyclone yet, I'd say...and though ther eis some upper level divergence, the best is located to the west of the convection (shear?)

EDIT--sorry, I meant EAST of the convection!

Thanks. It will be interesting to see what the next graphic looks like since that was from 0000Z.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For the sake of those in Beaumont and SW Louisiana, I really hope this does not come to them again.

The best scenario would be for it to get close to TX. Stall. Bring us some rain and a nice cool 20mph breeze, and then die.

If only I had a weather machine..

[wjs3]

Calamity:

No problem. By the way, your terminology was correct. Nice job.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Although I'm having an LBAR like year making forecasts, I'll try anyways, I got nothing better to do tonight. Mind you I made it this morning.


I had a good year in 2004, an ok year in 2005, and I'm having an awful year this year. I've made one correct prediction and that was TS at 5pm... just this afternoon. So don't even hold me to this, I beg you.

I like your forecast. It isn't over the top and is reasonable.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a Cat 3 though.

Thanks. And about being a cat 3. I wouldn't be shocked ether. This track is only assuming it makes it through the sheer. I'd much rather see it get slaughtered by sheer then strike the gulf coast.

Oh, me too. Last year was enough for me for a long time.

Which one got you?

Katrina. And then Rita..
You?

[Jagno]

Rita...................................amazingly we were hoping to be finished rebuilding the last room by Labor Day...........then start on the two garages

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG
little to no effect on the FINAL strength of the system so right now it is being sheared but this will be a mute point and just DELAY the inevitable (hurricane)

That's what I keep thinking.

oh, I know. That is why the local met said the shear should have little to no affect on the system, meaning it would probably allow it to strengthen over the next 24-48 hrs.

[jwayne]

anyone seen any kfdm thoughts lately?

[Jagno]

All We Know Is Falling, How did you get hit by both unless you moved after Katrina only to meet Rita as some new neighbors had happen here in Lake Charles?

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Although I'm having an LBAR like year making forecasts, I'll try anyways, I got nothing better to do tonight. Mind you I made it this morning.


I had a good year in 2004, an ok year in 2005, and I'm having an awful year this year. I've made one correct prediction and that was TS at 5pm... just this afternoon. So don't even hold me to this, I beg you.

I like your forecast. It isn't over the top and is reasonable.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a Cat 3 though.

Thanks. And about being a cat 3. I wouldn't be shocked ether. This track is only assuming it makes it through the sheer. I'd much rather see it get slaughtered by sheer then strike the gulf coast.

Oh, me too. Last year was enough for me for a long time.

Which one got you?

Katrina. And then Rita..
You?

Nobody, just the Remnents of Cindy, Tammy, and STD 22.

[Weatherfreak000]

As I have alot of respect for everyone's forecasting, i'd like to add it appears as if the perpihery of the high may place itself near NOLA. I assume at some point because of the high the system may have the dynamics to have some recurvature to it.


And (i'm sure i'm gonna recieve some for this..but) I just can't see this thing passing perhaps Mobile.


If I had to place my probabilities i'd say....perhaps...Galveston to Mobile.


Landfall I think may be somewhere near Lake Charles.

[rockyman]

Has anyone else noticed that the western edge has suddenly become "feathery" instead of a solid line of demarcation? This could mean that the westerly shear is easing up a good bit:

[Extremeweatherguy]

ATM, I think the area between Freeport, TX and Cameron, LA has the greatest risk of a hit (based on the latest track), but everyone from Brownsville to Tallahassee should continue to watch this closely.

[LAStorm01]

Recent post by New Orleans Met:

The environment that Ernesto will be moving into over the next couple of days is relatively harsh for tropical cyclones. If you look at a satellite image or water vapor image, you can see that the western side of the storm is being affected by dry air and shear in the central Caribbean Sea. This is the same scenario as what was ahead of T.S. Chris earlier this season. If you remember, Chris rapidly disintegrated over Puerto Rico after encountering some shear in the upper levels. Shear is essentially very strong upper level winds that blow the storm apart, and keep the thunderstorms from wrapping around the center. Strong shear can dissipate a storm in a matter of hours.

[curtadams]

The burst of convection that caused the -80 cloud tops was (and maybe still is) INTENSE. Poking around at the Navy site almost every imagery is showing convection about as intense as the imagery can show. Like this:

Off the charts. And, apparently, all focused in the convective chimney.
This is not going to be a 45 knot storm when recon goes in.

[jasons2k]

Local TV met said he just talked to the NHC and they said the shear will have little to no affect on this system.

That does surprise me a bit because I've been looking at the water vapor and there still appears to be some incredible SW winds/shear south of Haiti. But I can't disagree with the NHC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Recent post by New Orleans Met:

The environment that Ernesto will be moving into over the next couple of days is relatively harsh for tropical cyclones. If you look at a satellite image or water vapor image, you can see that the western side of the storm is being affected by dry air and shear in the central Caribbean Sea. This is the same scenario as what was ahead of T.S. Chris earlier this season. If you remember, Chris rapidly disintegrated over Puerto Rico after encountering some shear in the upper levels. Shear is essentially very strong upper level winds that blow the storm apart, and keep the thunderstorms from wrapping around the center. Strong shear can dissipate a storm in a matter of hours.

When was this written? That area of shear has lessened some tonight and should move west tomorrow.

[Brent]

Recent post by New Orleans Met:

The environment that Ernesto will be moving into over the next couple of days is relatively harsh for tropical cyclones. If you look at a satellite image or water vapor image, you can see that the western side of the storm is being affected by dry air and shear in the central Caribbean Sea. This is the same scenario as what was ahead of T.S. Chris earlier this season. If you remember, Chris rapidly disintegrated over Puerto Rico after encountering some shear in the upper levels. Shear is essentially very strong upper level winds that blow the storm apart, and keep the thunderstorms from wrapping around the center. Strong shear can dissipate a storm in a matter of hours.

That sounds old.

I think it's pretty obvious this is not a repeat of Chris. Just look at the satellite.

[Jim Cantore]

I wouldn't be suprised to wake up to a slightly stronger storm tommorow morning.