Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 16.2N 173.4E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 17.5N 170.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 310600UTC 19.3N 167.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 010600UTC 21.4N 164.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT

[r_u_stuck2]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/29/w ... index.html

HONOLULU, Hawaii (AP) -- The U.S. military has evacuated 200 people from Wake Island before the arrival of Typhoon Ioke, the strongest Central Pacific hurricane in more than decade.

Classified as a Category 5 "super typhoon," Ioke is expected to extensively damage the U.S. territory when it hits Wednesday with 155-mph winds, said Jeff Powell, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

"This is going to roll up a storm surge that will probably submerge the island and destroy everything that's not made of concrete," Powell said.

The evacuees, mostly American and Thai contractors, on Monday were flown to Hickam Air Force Base on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, said Maj. Clare Reed, a spokeswoman for the 15th Airlift Wing.

The contractors work at a civilian base, Reed said. No other permanent residents live on the tiny island, she said.

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 16.5N 171.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 17.9N 169.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 311800UTC 19.7N 166.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 011800UTC 21.6N 161.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT

[whereverwx]

Wow, with out a doubt this is a cat 5.

[CentralFlGal]

is there web sites that show data from Wake Island?

I've been trying to find Internet media (radio and webcams) that may carry real-time coverage, but I've been unsuccessful. I didn't hold much hope for webcams as some atolls are partly submerged during the year, and the other areas are classified for military use.

Live365.com's player is not working for me - but if it works for others, this is what I came across:
http://www.pacificislandsradio.com/index.htm

Hawai'i Internet radio stations that ran on RealPlayer for me have only carried music as I've listened for the last 2 hours.

I also saw on a Dept of Defense site (which I don't believe I'm allowed to quote or link here according to their policy) that the Wake Island Airfield will be unavailable for trans-Pacific emergency landings until Sept 3. I wonder what will be left when the contractors return to the island because this is a devastating storm.

[Brent]

Wow, with out a doubt this is a cat 5.

http://img48.imageshack.us/img48/4109/iokehugeje6.gif

WOW.

[curtadams]

A boggling storm. What an eye! But CIMSS does have it as a Cat 4, though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That looks to me with that perfect eye in cdo. To be at least 150 knots. I hope theres something to measure it at wake island.

[WmE]

I found this!

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PWAK.html

[WxGuy1]

I found this!

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PWAK.html

'

That would work very well, except the last transmission appears to have been near 15z yesterday

[P.K.]

The last thing I can see they released was.

291115 291111 02012KT 9999 FEW020 BKN250 QNH2972INS BECMG 1415 02015G25KT 9999 SCT020 BKN250 QNH2968INS BECMG 2021 03022G35KT 8000 -SHRA BKN020 BKN080 BKN250 QNH2963INS BECMG 0809 02028G40KT 8000 -SHRA BKN020 BKN080 OVC250 QNH2958INS T30/03Z T26/18Z LIMITED METWATCH 2911 TIL 2922=

The station is only 5 metres above sea level.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 171.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 171.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.0N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.8N 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.9N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.2N 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.4N 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.9N 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.0N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 171.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND
302100Z.//

NNNN

So thats 5 meters=15 feet. The ob/station meteorologist, this could be a record by the looks of this storm. Its his or her job is to stay in keep record.

[HurricaneBill]

So thats 5 meters=15 feet. The ob/station meteorologist, this could be a record by the looks of this storm. Its his or her job is to stay in keep record.

Personally, I'd say get them out of there and to safety.

[CrazyC83]

Back up to Category 5? This is the FOURTH stint there, correct?

[WmE]

Back up to Category 5? This is the FOURTH stint there, correct?

No, it's the third.

[P.K.]

I thought they already evacuated everyone though Matt? Would have been interesting to leave an automatic station running but how long it would have been able to transmit data is another question, and it would of course have been destroyed.

[WmE]

So, we will never know how strong it really was.

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 16.5N 171.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 18.1N 168.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
45HF 311800UTC 19.7N 166.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
69HF 011800UTC 21.6N 161.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT =

[WindRunner]

The eye has looked phenomenal for the past 18 hours now, if you look at the last MODIS pass from about 02Z this morning, you can see the beginning of three Isabelish vortices. Next MODIS should (hopefully) come in another couple hours, and even on the 1km resoultion images it looks astounding, so I can't wait.

Personally, I'd have to say that both JMA and JTWC are underestimating this one. I'd go with 110kts on the JMA advisory and 145kts (not quite 150) on the JTWC. Of course we all know that will never happen without a 7+ Dvorak, but sometimes you have to wish meteorologists would use their heads over their computers sometimes.

[wxmann_91]

The eye has looked phenomenal for the past 18 hours now, if you look at the last MODIS pass from about 02Z this morning, you can see the beginning of three Isabelish vortices. Next MODIS should (hopefully) come in another couple hours, and even on the 1km resoultion images it looks astounding, so I can't wait.

Personally, I'd have to say that both JMA and JTWC are underestimating this one. I'd go with 110kts on the JMA advisory and 145kts (not quite 150) on the JTWC. Of course we all know that will never happen without a 7+ Dvorak, but sometimes you have to wish meteorologists would use their heads over their computers sometimes.

Agree WR. The eye has continued to warmed considerably. Only caveat is the not super-strong convection. Maybe that's what's bringing Dvorak and the forecast strength down.