TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[AtlanticWind]

While everybodys looking at models take a look at a loop , either the storm is getting sheared or there is quite a bit of a northerly componet.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I am curious if that is still their opinion's? They have been quiet the last
many pages. I really would like to get their ideas right about now..

By the way, the 18z UKMET has the system tightly under the cuban coast, really only about 75 miles south of the GFS solution. Even the official NHC position at 72 hours is only 125 miles off the GFS. I really don't see why people think this is such a radical model right now.

[AJC3]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I am curious if that is still their opinion's? They have been quiet the last
many pages. I really would like to get their ideas right about now..

I don't think the 12Z GFS solution of the center moving NNW over eastern Cuba will verify, hence I see the threat of potential effects to peninsular south FL as minimal right now. Of course, that doesn't mean anyone in south FL should cease to keep track of the system.

While still several days away, the consensus of a northward turn into the eastern GOMEX landfall looks reasonable. Still a long way off though.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

While everybodys looking at models take a look at a loop , either the storm is getting sheared or there is quite a bit of a northerly componet.

Extremely astute observation.

[Furious George]

As models trend east (and I somewhat suspect another slightly eastern shift by the NHC at 11 pm), it looks like the track may really spend some time along Cuba. Look at the 3 day cone. If it rides the northern section it could spend upwards of 1 day over Cuba. Probably not enough to kill it, but any thoughts on how fast it could re-intensify over the GOM? Looking at SST's and heat content, I'd say pretty fast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

[Bailey1777]

A ridge, is a ridge, is a ridge.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow new GFS just off Tampa!!!!

Unbelievable folks....I love the tropics they are so suspenseful!!!

well having it be off of the Tampa coast is much better than it plowing into Tampa anyway, so that's good news.

[AJC3]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I am curious if that is still their opinion's? They have been quiet the last
many pages. I really would like to get their ideas right about now..

By the way, the 18z UKMET has the system tightly under the cuban coast, really only about 75 miles south of the GFS solution. Even the official NHC position at 72 hours is only 125 miles off the GFS. I really don't see why people think this is such a radical model right now.

I don't think the 12Z GFS was "radical". It simply made a change and became a right outlier with IMO little chance of verifying within the first 60 hours. UKMET looks pretty reasonable to me.

[canetracker]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I read absolutely nothing in the NHC discussion where they said they were discounting the gfs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2105.shtml

Well to be fair:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.

That doesn't make sense and won't happen.

Well that would indicate that the low level and mid level circulation will decouple. However they did NOT say they were toally discounting the GFS.

By mentioning the word dubious (of doubtful promise or outcome; questionable or suspect as to true nature or quality .....source Meriam Webster Dictionary) I think they meant that they are discounting the GFS.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like a Panhandle to Big Bend hit to me, for now. It's within driving range, so I might chase it.

that sounds like fun...I chased a few tornados when I lived in Kansas, what a rush that was...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It still amazes me when people buy into a model (the GFS) when it initializes the system as a 1008mb low! That is nearly 11mb stronger than it actually is. I think the reason we are seeing another crazy path this time is because this is an 18Z run (based off the 12Z)...I will be much more interested in what the 0Z guidance has to say.

[BonesXL]

well having it be off of the Tampa coast is much better than it plowing into Tampa anyway, so that's good news.

Wow..I agree with u your so awesome and caring your the very best man...you are tops in my book...

[Weatherfreak000]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I am curious if that is still their opinion's? They have been quiet the last
many pages. I really would like to get their ideas right about now..

By the way, the 18z UKMET has the system tightly under the cuban coast, really only about 75 miles south of the GFS solution. Even the official NHC position at 72 hours is only 125 miles off the GFS. I really don't see why people think this is such a radical model right now.

I don't think the 12Z GFS was "radical". It simply made a change and became a right outlier with IMO little chance of verifying within the first 60 hours. UKMET looks pretty reasonable to me.

Does the UKMET have a new solution now? Where is it now predicting landfall?

[Scorpion]

It still amazes me when people buy into a model (the GFS) when it initializes the system as a 1008mb low! That is nearly 11mb stronger than it actually is. I think the reason we are seeing another crazy path this time is because this is an 18Z run (based off the 12Z)...I will be much more interested in what the 0Z guidance has to say.

The GFS always will initialize much higher than the actual pressure. I would think the GFS is actually pretty close here with its current intensity.

[Bailey1777]

AJC3 using your pro eyes what direction is E. moving right now?

[AJC3]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I am curious if that is still their opinion's? They have been quiet the last
many pages. I really would like to get their ideas right about now..

By the way, the 18z UKMET has the system tightly under the cuban coast, really only about 75 miles south of the GFS solution. Even the official NHC position at 72 hours is only 125 miles off the GFS. I really don't see why people think this is such a radical model right now.

I don't think the 12Z GFS was "radical". It simply made a change and became a right outlier with IMO little chance of verifying within the first 60 hours. UKMET looks pretty reasonable to me.

Does the UKMET have a new solution now? Where is it now predicting landfall?

Dunno, but the idea of a close pass underneath Cuba is what looks reasonable to me. I've been trying to focus on what I think will happen in the next 2-3 days.

[Opal storm]

Have you guys even looked at the NHC cone,it extends all the way to western LA.Why are so many people sold on a FL landfall?

[ConvergenceZone]

Stratosphere -- sorry, didn't mean to offend you... however, I was just saying that if Convergence could make that conclusion about Floridians, then I could do the same about Texans... see, there's only one or two Floridians that are "hyping" a Florida hit.

I didn't mean that in a bad way. I"m just saying that it's easy to have a bias if you live in a specific area, only because you focus on the model depicting it coming your way moreso than the models that say it's not going to come your way. ..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Have you guys even looked at the NHC cone,it extends all the way to western LA.Why are so many people sold on a FL landfall?

and if their cone was extended further, then it would likely go further west than that. This is still anyones ball game IMO.

[storms in NC]

AJC3 using your pro eyes what direction is E. moving right now?

LOL I had to read it 4 times before I know what E was for Ernesto. was thing East LOLOLOL So sorryhad to laugh