TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[Brent]

Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Yep. NHC is now on the far right of all of those tracks. They are going to have shift west at 11.

maybe but they said they expected it to resume a more NW movement shortly...so they may not shift that far if at all.

Oh I don't think it'll be a major shift, maybe Upper Keys and then up into the Peninsula.

[Patrick99]

If it doesn't resume a more NW movement, it will be the death of it.

[JonathanBelles]

If it doesn't resume a more NW movement, it will be the death of it.

dont jump the gun it is half on-half off the coast

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Yep. NHC is now on the far right of all of those tracks. They are going to have shift west at 11.

maybe but they said they expected it to resume a more NW movement shortly...so they may not shift that far if at all.

ive never seen this much agreement inbetween all of these tracks!

[Stratosphere747]

This would be fitting....

Ernie continues westward making all present forecasts void, and resuming the orginals -- and we start all over.

[gtalum]

Remember, the models have very little recon data, as recon hasn't gone into the center in a long time.

[Trugunzn]

[gatorcane]

definitely a pretty good WNW turn.....great news continues to come in for south florida

[Trugunzn]

holding up alot better then I thought it would.

[TampaFl]

Here is a better radar view from Camaquey, Cuba. also notice what appears to be the weak upper level low north of Ernesto.


http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

[ALhurricane]

Ernie is about as sick as a tropical storm could be. Each hour that goes by that Ernesto moves west, the less chance this has of a significant impact to S FL. The inner core of this storm has taken a severe beating and sometimes they simply don't recover (i.e. Hurricane Isidore in 2003.)

Ernesto has a lot of recovering to do and he is not doing himself any favors wasting time looking for Cuban cigars on his way out.

[johngaltfla]

Our local met here said that their Vipir forcast thing said that it would go west of the NHC and go mostly up the West of FL and then cross over inland of Charleston.
http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/new ... -0017.html
Click on the link to the last forcast.
Infact, it was much like the models are showing now.

I did not care for that model run at all. Where it crosses the Florida coast, I can walk to. And danged if the VIPIR isn't pretty good in a 72 hour window...

[Frank P]

Ernie is about as sick as a tropical storm could be. Each hour that goes by that Ernesto moves west, the less chance this has of a significant impact to S FL. The inner core of this storm has taken a severe beating and sometimes they simply don't recover (i.e. Hurricane Isidore in 2003.)

Ernesto has a lot of recovering to do and he is not doing himself any favors wasting time looking for Cuban cigars on his way out.

this IR loop paints that picture quite well as his convection warms near the center.... he needs to get off land and quick..

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... &type=mbir

[gatorcane]

Ernie is about as sick as a tropical storm could be. Each hour that goes by that Ernesto moves west, the less chance this has of a significant impact to S FL. The inner core of this storm has taken a severe beating and sometimes they simply don't recover (i.e. Hurricane Isidore in 2003.)

Ernesto has a lot of recovering to do and he is not doing himself any favors wasting time looking for Cuban cigars on his way out.

I agree, the WNW jog I think has really decreased the chances of a CAT 1+ hurricane into South Florida...

I honestly have no idea where Ernesto is going. He continues to puzzle me....

[TampaFl]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

now look at this...The ULL and Ernie are moving in tandom at the moment to the WNW.

Watch the track of the upper low. Will it follow a similar track that is forecast for Ernesto?? IMHO I would think which ever way it goes that will be the path Ernesto takes. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

[ConvergenceZone]

Ernie is about as sick as a tropical storm could be. Each hour that goes by that Ernesto moves west, the less chance this has of a significant impact to S FL. The inner core of this storm has taken a severe beating and sometimes they simply don't recover (i.e. Hurricane Isidore in 2003.)

Ernesto has a lot of recovering to do and he is not doing himself any favors wasting time looking for Cuban cigars on his way out.

I agree, the WNW jog I think has really decreased the chances of a CAT 1+ hurricane into South Florida...

I honestly have no idea where Ernesto is going. He continues to puzzle me....

I agree, a cat 1 possibility of a hurricane is just about over and the percentage is dropping by the hour. Like the Mets on here said, the inner core is being torn apart and it's going to be like watching a wave start from scratch and try to get itself together. I still think a tropical storm up to maybe 55 mph is possible before landfall, but if it doesn't get off land soon, even that may be overdoing it.

[gatorcane]

Ernie is about as sick as a tropical storm could be. Each hour that goes by that Ernesto moves west, the less chance this has of a significant impact to S FL. The inner core of this storm has taken a severe beating and sometimes they simply don't recover (i.e. Hurricane Isidore in 2003.)

Ernesto has a lot of recovering to do and he is not doing himself any favors wasting time looking for Cuban cigars on his way out.

I agree, the WNW jog I think has really decreased the chances of a CAT 1+ hurricane into South Florida...

I honestly have no idea where Ernesto is going. He continues to puzzle me....

Looking at more SAT pics it is quite a bit of a sharp WNW turn that we are seeing now and it almost looks like it is beelining WNW in tandem with the UL to the northwest of it (as somebody else mentioned)....

I think a shift left to the tracks at 11:00 is in store with the line over SW Florida (near naples)....however....Ernesto is quickly running out of time to become anything.....he is dying right now.

I agree, a cat 1 possibility of a hurricane is just about over and the percentage is dropping by the hour. Like the Mets on here said, the inner core is being torn apart and it's going to be like watching a wave start from scratch and try to get itself together. I still think a tropical storm up to maybe 55 mph is possible before landfall, but if it doesn't get off land soon, even that may be overdoing it.

Looking at more SAT pics it is quite a bit of a sharp WNW turn that we are seeing now and it almost looks like it is beelining WNW in tandem with the UL to the northwest of it (as somebody else mentioned)....

I think a shift left to the tracks at 11:00 is in store with the line over SW Florida (near naples)....however....Ernesto is quickly running out of time to become anything.....he is dying right now.

[wxman57]

I just checked the "significant" 00Z model plots (ignoring the climo plots and BAM models). There is a slight west shift. Most significant, look at the new CONU track taking Ernesto inland west of the upper Keys (blue line). I bet the NHC nudges the track 30-40 miles west across the FL peninsula at 10pm.

But as has been mentioned, this thing is so poorly organized that I don't think it'll have more than about 60 mph winds in squalls when it reaches FL, and that may be generous. Looking more like a heavy rainfall threat.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who wants to be the 1st to say Ernesto is done? As in Cuba got him...

[Thatsmrhurricane]

11PM W shift in track. Weaker storm = 35MPH. Will this thing ever exit Cuba? Is there an LLC?