TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[westmoon]

With the westward trend I'am shocked that the watches & warnings were not changed at 8am.

[Normandy]

Long Range Radar CANNOT be used to dictate Center of Circ accurately...

yes it can.
This is not a naked low level swirl, it has some vertical stacking.

Add to the fact that the radar center I see matches the NHC advisory center.

[rnbaida]

I think we may have a new west track at 11am..

[storms in NC]

if you look at this loop you can see it going NW right on the forcast path

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[decgirl66]

OMG! I have seen drunks walk a straighter line than Ernesto!! LOL....where he goes no one knows!

[gtalum]

if you look at this loop you can see it going NW right on the forcast path

That's what I was thinking too, but I am having a hard time spotting the center for sure.

[Canelaw99]

Here's a good water vapor loop of the US/Gulf/Atlantic.
Sure looks like the high pressure to the north is holding steady:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7

To my untrained eye, it looks like the high off the mid-Atlantic coast is shifting to the east, which is what it was supposed to do I think....

[Normandy]

if you look at this loop you can see it going NW right on the forcast path

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

If you dont believe me, look at the VDM and movement... .2N .4W.

[stormtruth]

Whever he goes it looks like there will be some flooding. Ernesto looks like a very wet system.

[Tropics Guy]

From this central Cuba radar site you can now see the COC moving NW towards the Fl Peninsula.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Stormavoider]

Long Range Radar CANNOT be used to dictate Center of Circ accurately...

yes it can.
This is not a naked low level swirl, it has some vertical stacking.

Add to the fact that the radar center I see matches the NHC advisory center.

AFM posted a calculator link weeks ago. I don't have it. If I recall, the radar is probably looking at about 45K ft. at 200mi range.

[THead]

if you look at this loop you can see it going NW right on the forcast path

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Exactly. And if you click on the forecast points check box you can see the path is clearly laid out thru a "highway" riding the western boundary of the ridge. I really think the NHC has it nailed now. You can see it on the vis loop too very well.

[wjs3]

You can't go by the Radar. I wish a pro met would come in and tell you why. I was told that last year. If they would ring in here it would help you understand why not to use Radar.

The radar beam gets higher up the further away form the radar site you get (becasue of the curvature of the earth). By the time its 100 miles away (like it is now with the center of Ernesto) you are not looking at the low level reflectivity at all, only higher levels. Later today as it approaches the Keys that'll change.

[Normandy]

No i understand u are not looking at the Low level center....that being said, you can still view the rough "center" of tropical systems (mid level centers)using long range radar, its just not as accurate.

[Bane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

take a look at the visible loop here. ernesto does look to be getting better organized. the overall circulation looks pretty strong.

[storms in NC]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

take a look at the visible loop here. ernesto does look to be getting better organized. the overall circulation looks pretty strong.

I just seen that he is growing

[gatorcane]

Is this thing still alive?!!!? I just got up and looks like he is strengthening

[ronjon]

Latest 06Z GFDL has a Naples landfall along the SW FL coast.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

757
WHXX01 KWBC 291217
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060829 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060829 1200 060830 0000 060830 1200 060831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 79.3W 24.0N 81.0W 25.3N 82.4W 27.1N 83.0W
BAMM 22.9N 79.3W 24.1N 80.9W 25.4N 82.2W 26.9N 82.6W
A98E 22.9N 79.3W 24.3N 81.1W 25.9N 82.3W 28.1N 82.7W
LBAR 22.9N 79.3W 24.3N 81.0W 25.7N 82.3W 27.3N 82.8W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS 63KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 39KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060831 1200 060901 1200 060902 1200 060903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 82.7W 34.7N 81.1W 40.1N 79.8W 45.0N 75.8W
BAMM 28.9N 82.0W 33.1N 79.5W 37.9N 77.8W 43.1N 74.8W
A98E 31.0N 81.9W 35.4N 80.9W 40.5N 78.8W 45.1N 74.0W
LBAR 28.9N 82.7W 32.2N 81.0W 37.1N 78.0W 42.3N 71.4W
SHIP 69KTS 78KTS 79KTS 70KTS
DSHP 38KTS 30KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.9N LONCUR = 79.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 21.4N LONM12 = 77.4W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 75.5W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$

[gtalum]

Strengthening is part of the NHC forecast. It's not a surprise.