TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[gtalum]

I'd love to know where some of you are getting W or WNW from. Ernie's moving NW-NNW to the right of the forecast track, and I'm willing to bet the 5 PM advisory shifts east.

[tampastorm]

Funny how some ppl think it is going to the gulf and some see E going to the east coast. How come no one is seeing it go where it suppose to,lol?

[rnbaida]

isnt it getting better organized? it looks way better than it did about 6 hours ago... nice convection and looks very nice on visible sat.

[gtalum]

isnt it getting better organized? it looks way better than it did about 6 hours ago... nice convection and looks very nice on visible sat.

As of 45 minutes ago, there was no pressure drop or windspeed increase from the past 6 hours.

[Javlin]

A nice WV loop of the SE.The ULL to NW seems to be playing with the front.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Javlin,

That's what I was trying to point out. I think that front will be a little delayed in its arrival.

[gtalum]

Funny how some ppl think it is going to the gulf and some see E going to the east coast. How come no one is seeing it go where it suppose to,lol?

Recon has several times now located the center, east and north of where the NHC track has predicted it will be. Thus I predict a track move to the east, though only a small one.

Any westward movement observation is an illusion.

[CronkPSU]

can't tell what direction it is going but the rain nearly is all around the center now

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... raprod=n0z

[storms in NC]

You can tell by the loops hour by hour it is east of forecast path.

[SunnyThoughts]

nice radar loop
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[rnbaida]

isnt it getting better organized? it looks way better than it did about 6 hours ago... nice convection and looks very nice on visible sat.

As of 45 minutes ago, there was no pressure drop or windspeed increase from the past 6 hours.

I dont believe that the winds are still 45mph and pressure is rising... It doesnt make sense. I just want this thing to make landfall so we can get over it.

[gtalum]

I just want this thing to make landfall so we can get over it.

On that, at least, we can agree.

[LanceW]

As for motion (from the last two VDM's):
16:39 23.39N
79.21W

1742: 23.55N
79.55W

That equates to about .16N/.34W, WNW roughly. Just stating the facts, not looking at radar/

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think the center relocations, combined with an unstacked core, has been playing havoc on everyone's eyes. Depending on what radar you prefer, you will see a different center. IR vs. water vapro vs. visible will also play tricks when there isn't a well developed eye to track.

Conclusion: everyone in the cone needs to be prepared and keep up with the updates.

[boca]

Looks like Ernesto is moving WNW to NW and will clip the Southern part of S FL with rain and keep on that path until maybe it gets into the EGOM. So far no rain here in Boca Raton. The reason for my maddness is simply the wholw mass moving that direction roughly 300°.

[THead]

Looks like landfall right near Key Largo on its present course, based on this view.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[dixiebreeze]

I think Ernie is headed for the GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[tampastorm]

I agee not WNW , but not NNW. I dont think it is well east of the forecast point. Bottom line the NHC is pretty much right on.

[rnbaida]

I think Ernie is headed for the GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

the radar and sat would make it look like ernie would go into the gulf but I pormise you it will curve into FL...Just wait and see.

[feederband]

Looks like landfall right near Key Largo on its present course, based on this view.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

Depends on which swrill...There is another one on that radar that makes it look like Marathon...