TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

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jinftl
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#161 Postby jinftl » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:23 pm

from the radar loop it almost looks like the center is southeast of key largo...still over open water....untrained observation of course!
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#162 Postby stormtruth » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:24 pm

So the NHC was wrong calling the movement NW at 8PM? I wonder why they did that?
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#163 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:24 pm

landfall begining in "Key Largo" http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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#164 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:25 pm

it does look like the center dropped south some and is still over water.
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#165 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:26 pm

So is the center over water or making landfall.. I'm all confused now, lol. I do keep hearing more thunder.. looks like we might be getting some nasty bands/squalls coming in..
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#166 Postby jinftl » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:28 pm

could it be that convection is trying to wrap around the somewhat amorphous (and large-looking) center?
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#167 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:28 pm

it was very close to key largo but that center weakend and now a new center formed furthur south.
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#168 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:it does look like the center dropped south some and is still over water.


well its weak and now we can see on radar why they struggle with centers, there is a coc by key largo and one SE so which is dominant, thats the question. we are getting a good lesson this evening.
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#169 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:28 pm

The center will spend more time over water giving Ernesto very little time for some unlikely strengthening.
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#170 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:30 pm

I think they go by a 12 hour track. Not sure.So it could be where you said.
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#171 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:31 pm

Ernesto is pulling out all his tricks right now....amazing he just won't die!!! :grr:
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#172 Postby Bgator » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:31 pm

It would only make sense for the new south one to be the center it is moving north, while the key largo one is moving what looks to be around the new one...
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#173 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:32 pm

BGator... looks like we might get some more squalls coming in soon.. what part of miami are you in? I'm in Kendall..
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#174 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:33 pm

the one to the south looks to be moving North....
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#175 Postby Bgator » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:34 pm

tgenius wrote:BGator... looks like we might get some more squalls coming in soon.. what part of miami are you in? I'm in Kendall..

Im in pinecrest/palmetto bay...Some thunder still, and looks like some more are coming our way...not a lot of wind though..
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#176 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:34 pm

your all right! new center forming!
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#177 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:35 pm

I think Ernesto decided to wait until it gets dark to pull out some tricks....lets see what new surprises he has in store.
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#178 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:36 pm

I am 99% sure the new center has formed about 75 miles south of key largo....interesting and it appears to be moving N
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#179 Postby the_winds_that_sheared_me » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:36 pm

It looks like in this radar that the center is Due east of Marathon moving due West.

http://tinyurl.com/old2f
Last edited by the_winds_that_sheared_me on Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#180 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:36 pm

heavy rains entering plantation (broward county)
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