TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[whereverwx]

Weird storm....

[WxGuy1]

I think some people today may just be surprised that Ernesto's wind field seems to be getting stronger and is very persistent, not like Wilma where she was gone in just 6 hours or so - look at some of the gusts across south florida (40mph at PBI in the Palm Beachs Intl Airport)

W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 83 73 72 S23G40 29.72R
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 78 73 84 S21G36 29.76R
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 82 S21G31 29.78R
POMPANO BEACH LGT RAIN 82 72 71 SW26G36 29.76R
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 77 74 90 S21G29 29.80R
OPA LOCKA RAIN 77 74 90 S21G28 29.81S
MIAMI RAIN 77 73 87 S15G23 29.82R
WEST KENDALL RAIN 76 73 91 SW17G24 29.82R FOG
HOMESTEAD LGT RAIN 75 75 100 SW15G23 29.84S

Are those wind speeds?

Not what you are looking at.

LOCATION SKY/PRECIP TEMP DEWPOINT RH WIND PRESSURE

The S21G31, for example, is southerly winds at 21 gusting to 31. I assume you were looking at the temp, dewpoint, and RH (the ones in the 70s). The winds are all inline with a tropical depressions or less.

[HurricaneBelle]

I think some people today may just be surprised that Ernesto's wind field seems to be getting stronger and is very persistent, not like Wilma where she was gone in just 6 hours or so - look at some of the gusts across south florida (40mph at PBI in the Palm Beachs Intl Airport)

W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 83 73 72 S23G40 29.72R
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 78 73 84 S21G36 29.76R
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 82 S21G31 29.78R
POMPANO BEACH LGT RAIN 82 72 71 SW26G36 29.76R
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 77 74 90 S21G29 29.80R
OPA LOCKA RAIN 77 74 90 S21G28 29.81S
MIAMI RAIN 77 73 87 S15G23 29.82R
WEST KENDALL RAIN 76 73 91 SW17G24 29.82R FOG
HOMESTEAD LGT RAIN 75 75 100 SW15G23 29.84S

Are those wind speeds?

First 3 are tempatures, then is the wind direction and speed and then gusts followed by the pressures.

Some strong gusts there, but all the pressures seem to be steady or rising.

The first three numbers are temperature, dew point, and relative humidity.

[cpdaman]

what is going on with the clouds on the northern side of the system in between 1400 and 1700 utc on this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

where is this going now still nne 10-15

[SCMedic]

I'm expecting to see a strong tropical storm starting sometime tomorrow afternoon here on the Charleston Coast... Cat 1 wouldn't be a whole lot different, but it sure would shut up all the "ernesto is dead" people.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I must say though, Ernesto is better organized and he appears to be trying to form an eye-like feature on Radar.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg
http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0Z/MLB_loop.gif

[O Town]

The first three numbers are temperature, dew point, and relative humidity.

My point was they are NOT wind speeds.

[HurricaneBelle]

I am in agreement with SouthFLTropics....I'm glad this didn't turn out terrible for Florida..

BUT!

The Weather Channel did just mention at the 2:50 Tropical Update that they were VERY suprised that it has held together as well as it has. They said it has a very distinct LLC still and that the strong convection has them a little more suspicious of what the Carolina's might see.. Even made mention of a possible Cat1.

Also, the LLC is currently just west of Vero Beach, and slated to move offshore just north of Vero beach in the next 4 hours...

Well, it shouldn't be too shocking as to how it's held together...aside from the frictional effects of land tightening up the circulation, it has inflow from both the Atlantic and the Gulf.

As it's passed north of Lake Okechobee now, the convection is almost completely wrapping around the center. Also, some fast-moving cells are popping up over Hernando/Pasco/Hillsborough counties (just north of Tampa) dropping south which should produce brief squalls, finally giving the Tampa Bay area a taste of the storm.

[BensonTCwatcher]

thought ( and posted) it would exit btwn WPB and Ft Pierce, that was perhaps a little too aggressive, but there a few here that thought I was just plain silly saying it could re-stregthen, we shall see. The NE feeder bands are not a good sign this point

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

P.S. turn off the Topo

[curtadams]

I've seen and heard several suggestions that he's going subtropical. He looks that way to me too, now, and it could explain a lot of things - the large wind field, assymetrical convection, persistance with no local temp gradient, persistence over land, etc. Means he's less likely to dissipate but also less likely to generate hurricane winds. Shear seems to be picking up and he's in serious trouble if he's not partially subtropical.

[Trugunzn]

Wow just got jhome and seeing this!



If that convection and outflow holds well by the time it leaves land it has a good chance of develope into hurricane.

[storms in NC]

It will be in the water in 4 hours. the edge is just about there

[mettski]

where's the center located ?

[AnnularCane]

Ernie has always been quite energetic. Imagine if he had made it over the loop current.

I bet if anybody had said at the beginning that Ernie would be an East Coast storm, he would have been laughed off the forum!

[Trugunzn]

Check out the 0Z WRF

10M Wind Speeds:

[storms in NC]

where's the center located ?

Vero Beach

[HurricaneHunter914]

I thought the center was several miles west of Fort Peirce.

[WxGuy1]

I thought the center was several miles west of Fort Peirce.

Looking at radar, I'd put it about 35 miles west of Vero Beach or Fort Peirce. It's still a little ways inland, and it looks like the solid convection surrounding the west and south side of the circulation is expanding but becoming less defined. Curved bands to the east look pretty good, but I'd say the 'inner core' looks less defined than it did a couple hours ago. It really doesn't look like Ernesto has moved any to the east lately, with either a due northerly or slightly just west of due northerly motion this afternoon.

[Trugunzn]

WOW, check this out


[img]ftp://gp16.ssd.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/volcano/bh/Tom/Ern-G10-zm-vis.gif[/img]

[Hurricanevideo]

The center is near central and northern Okeechobee county. Im located on the northern end of the lake and my winds just went south here.

Strong convective band to the west is producing flooding per 2m radio. Never heard so much thunder in a tropical cyclone before.