Ernesto Remnants

[WindRunner]

Per radar, the center is still inland and located appx. over the Middle Neck of VA, and I notice a slight west of north motion in the last half hour. Not enough to say it's not going out to see, but something to watch.

And on the topic of winds, I stopped caring about what the NHC said when I saw the winds at KWAL (in the northern part of the VA eastern shore) reach 51mph sustained and gusting to 66mph an hour or two ago . . . winds there are down to 43mph as of 20:32Z, and I would say this has weakened from a 50kt TS at 11am to a 35kt storm at 5pm and is continuing to rapidly weaken. Gusts are still potent, as KWAL is still gusting to 54kts, KNHK (in southern MD) is gusting to 47kts, KOXB in Ocean City to 46kts, and several other locations gusting between 40 and 45kts, one even near Fredericksburg, VA (KNYG on the Potomac). The intense convection that was near the center and produced the FFWs in the Norfolk area has dissapated and the intensity of precipitation is still decreasing as it moves up the bay. It is a very cold rain, though, so the ET declaration isn't surprising, it just isn't a TD.

[Trugunzn]

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION...COMPLETELY DISCOUNTING THE NAM.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS SURFACE PRESSURE
CHANGE ANALYSES...IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL
CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST...AND MAY NOT TURN NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ALONG WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND.
MAIN QUESTIONS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE: 1) WHEN DO ERNESTO'S
RAINS ARRIVE, 2) HOW HEAVY WILL THE RAINS BE, AND 3) HOW WINDY DOES
IT GET IN BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

[terstorm1012]

it is indeed a very cold rain.....for a tropical system it's downright miserable outside

I might have to put on the heat tonight, I got myself a chill.

[AnnularCane]

it is indeed a very cold rain.....for a tropical system it's downright miserable outside

I might have to put on the heat tonight, I got myself a chill.

I noticed the same thing when I was in McComb during Katrina. It was rainy and windy and actually felt chilly outside.

Although, considering it was August and we had no air conditioning, that was just fine with me.

[flair]

I'd say, here in VA this was comparable somewhat to Bonnie (98 version), except with a whole lot more rain and flooding with Ernesto. You don't get 350,000 customers without power from a "depression". This was a bona fide tropical storm in VA and there should have been warnings put up yesterday for VA.

[Brent]

Wallops Island has been sustained to TS force since before 1pm, with a peak gust of 61 mph.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KWAL.html

[Thunder44]

HPC 5PM Advisory:

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2006


...Tropical depression gradually losing tropical
characteristics...moving northward through the mid-Atlantic...
Flood warnings are in effect for portions of eastern North
Carolina and Virginia. Flash flood warnings are in effect for
portions of eastern Maryland and eastern Virginia. Coastal flood
warnings are in effect for portions of northern Virginia...the
District of Columbia...and southern and eastern Maryland. Flash
flood watches are in effect for portions of eastern North
Carolina...Virginia...eastern West
Virginia...Maryland...Delaware...New Jersey...Pennsylvania...and
New York. High wind warnings are in effect for portions of
Delaware and New Jersey. Wind advisories are in effect for
portions of Virginia...the District of
Columbia...Maryland...Delaware...and New Jersey.
At 5 PM EDT...21z...the center of Tropical Depression Ernesto was
located near latitude 37.2 north...and longitude 77.1 west or 25
miles to the southeast of Richmond Virginia.
Ernesto has slowed its forward motion over the last several hours
and is now moving north-northeast at 10 mph. A general northward
motion at this speed is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph with higher gusts. Minimum
central pressure is 998 mb or 29.47 inches.
Selected storm total rainfall amounts in inches thru 4 PM EDT
...Florida...
Rock Island 6.74
Immokalee 5.96
Moore Haven 4.74
Kissimmee 4.28
Lehigh Acres 4.16
Lake Wales 3.85
Ochopee 3.78
...South Carolina...
Mt pleasant 6.65
Myrtle Beach 6.20
McClellanville 5.84
Daniel Island 4.50
Surfside Beach 4.05
Conway Marina 4.00
...North Carolina...
Grifton 9.85
Cape Fear river 9.71
Wilmington 9.58
Kinston 9.57
Snow Hill 8.40
New River ncas 8.06
Wallace 8.00
tranters creek 7.57
Longwood 7.23
Greenville 7.13
Richlands 7.06
...Virginia...
Witts Orchard 6.64
Back Bay 6.43
Oriskany 6.19
Concord 5.89
Snow Creek 5.68
Grayson Highland 4.72
Copper Hill 4.36
Rocky Mount 4.29
Norfolk intl Arpt 4.20
...West Virginia...
Ellison Ridge 3.20
Ripley 2.50
Spencer 2.48
Racine 2.43
tornado 2.12
...Maryland...
Caroline 1.68
Riverdale 1.12
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm
totals of 8 inches are possible across the mid-Atlantic states and
the central Appalachians.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...37.2 north...77.1
west...movement toward the north-northeast near 10 mph...maximum
sustained winds at 35 mph...minimum central pressure is 998 mb.
The next advisory on Tropical Depression Ernesto will be issued by
the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center at 11 PM EDT. Refer to
your local forecast office for further information concerning this
system.

Trimarco
Forecast positions
Initial 01/2100z 37.2n 77.1w
12hr VT 02/0600z 38.6n 77.0w
24hr VT 02/1800z 40.5n 77.8w
36hr VT 03/0600z 42.6n 78.4w
48hr VT 03/1800z 44.7n 77.6w
$$

[bjackrian]

Not quite sure how to interpret this, but from LWX's discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
515 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO TRANSITION FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO A
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THIS
TRANSITION...LINEAR EXTRAPOLATIONS OF SATELLITE/RADAR DATA WILL NOT
WORK WELL IN THIS SITUATION.

DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BAROCLINIC
LEAF DEVELOPING ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 18Z SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THE POSITION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
WAKEFIELD VIRGINIA...WITH 3 HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS OF 3+MB ACROSS THE
LOWER DELMARVA. WHILE THE INITIAL BAND OF HIGH RAIN RATES CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PRESSURE FALL CENTER...REGIONAL
RADAR INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SPIRAL BAND FROM NEAR
CHARLOTTESVILLE NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THIS BAND
MAY BECOME THE CENTER POINT FOR HIGH RAIN RATES THIS EVENING AS THE
DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM REACH THE LOCAL AREA.

BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF HIGH RAIN
RATES WILL PIVOT NORTHWEST MOST LIKELY NORTH OF THE DISTRICT...
POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF HAGERSTOWN TO BALTIMORE THIS EVENING.

GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 2" ACROSS THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREAS AT 20Z...WITH THIS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STEADY BY THE GFS MODEL THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY
INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING.

[Thunder44]

HPC Forecast Track:

[CrazyC83]

Perhaps we're seeing a phase a-la Hazel? Just a thought.

I think so, although Hazel was a totally different animal - with her were talking about a Category 2-3 hurricane at the time.

[WindRunner]

Thowing in my two cents here . . . appears to be a slow NNW motion. Measuring the back of the rainband where the center is/should be, I got slightly over 4nm in 80mins, or 3kts, on a heading of 325°. Short term estimation, but the general direction has been persistent for a couple of hours now.

[Trugunzn]

Well center is now over the ocean, but I doubt it will intensify:



http://tinyurl.com/f6rbx

Link edited for looooooooong link

[Rainband]

Well center is now over the ocean, but I doubt it will intensify:

No according to the floater the center is over land. In PA

[Trugunzn]

Well center is now over the ocean, but I doubt it will intensify:

No according to the floater the center is over land. In PA

link?Over PA already?How do u know its over PA?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What I'm wondering is why the Ship Model is showing winds of 55 mph in 120 hr; is some type of extratropical reintensification going to occur?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Trugunzn]

Pro Mets on another bourd says the center of circulation seems to be about 15 miles ssw of Crisfield, MD

[stormtruth]

Upton is warning of 50 mph wind gusts

LOW LEVEL JET GETS CRANKING...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 50-60 KTS OF WIND ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LLJ SPEEDS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP...WHICH COULD ALLOW THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN OR BE DRAGGED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT 25 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND...WITH 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH INLAND. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY STRONG CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RELAX AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ny/discussion.html

[Trugunzn]

All the models busted on the track for Ernesto. Ernesto was a very difficult storm to track. Right now its more subtropical.

[Extremeweatherguy]

All the models busted on the track for Ernesto. Ernesto was a very difficult storm to track. Right now its more subtropical.

I agree. This was one of the worst forecasted storms (by models) that I have ever seen. I still find it amazing how at this point last week it looked like a TX/LA storm, and here we are today with it in New England. Shows you just how unpredictable these things can really be, and you should not get too worried until you are within the 3-day (not 5-day) cone.

Hopefully Florence will be easier to forecast...

[WindRunner]

This is not what I want to hear:

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 34 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO HAS BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL...NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...

I have a 5k to run tomorrow at 9am and it needs to be done by then, or else!