TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Sanibel]

Florence is caught in a general tropical flow headed into the southerly flow induced by the trough which is like a brick wall as far as steering.

Just came back from the visible loops. Florence is really starting to wrap now. We should see some strengthening soon.

[wxman57]

Here's an interesting new McIDAS image. I thnk the center may be tucked up under the convection farther to the north than the 12Z satellite estimates, possibly near 23.1N/59.3W. In fact, I can see wha almost looks like an eyewall forming. I did say almost...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence26.gif

[Scorpion]

Finally she might get her act together.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

central atlantic WV shows big trough digging reaching as far south as 18n 40W and it also appears to my untrained eyes that the front associated with this trough is interacting with flo on the east or at least the source of the convective trail that goes about 1000 miles from her north east side is partly from the front and partly from the old invest almost caught up.

its like flo has all these little parasites following it / attatched to it that it can't shake off.

[cycloneye]

NOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS
ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION.
IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE
PREVAILED.

Interesting last words of the 11 AM discussion from Lixon Avila.

[wxman57]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

central atlantic WV shows big trough digging reaching as far south as 18n 40W and it also appears to my untrained eyes that the front associated with this trough is interacting with flo on the east or at least the source of the convective trail that goes about 1000 miles from her north east side is partly from the front and partly from the old invest almost caught up.

its like flo has all these little parasites following it / attatched to it that it can't shake off.

The trof is digging south well east of Florence. Florence had been attached to the front, but no more. Upper low southwest of Florence is no longer producing significant wind shear, as evidence in the cirrus outflow developing southwest of Florence's center. Excellent anticyclone aloft. Could be a little over 24 hours from hurricane strength now.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking hurricane within 18 hours now. The dry air is gone too.

[wxman57]

NOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS
ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION.
IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE
PREVAILED.

Interesting last words of the 11 AM discussion from Lixon Avila.

That sounds just like Lix. I saw those last two images and said "WHOA!" Center is now right beneath the convection and outflow is great.

[wxman57]

Here's a hot-off-the-press McIDAS image of Florence.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence27.gif

[KWT]

If that center fix you've got there Wxman57 is correctr then I think we may have given Florence abit of dis-service so far today but if it is then actually it looks styronger then 50mph, i'd guess looking at that image you've got there probably somewher ein the 60-70mph is closer. Can see some banding as well quite evident in some parts of the system.

[gatorcane]

Here's a hot-off-the-press McIDAS image of Florence.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence27.gif

Thanks WxMan, looking like its really getting organized.

[cpdaman]

it seems people are confused about the terms wnw and nw and dont understand what this exactly means

flo is moving wnw right now but wnw means anywhere within 11.25 degrees of 292.5 on the arc of 360

since there are 16 movement positions n nw nnw nne ne ene e ese se sse s ssw sw wsw w wnw and 360 degrees in a circle than 360/16 = 22.5

than each motion has a variable of the radius of the total degrees included in that movement window or 11.25 degrees from the TRUE movement degree

ex. 180 is due south this means due south encompasses any movement within 11.25 on either side of 180 thus south ( 180 +/-11.25 degrees) or 168.75- 191.25


so basically flow moving WNW means it is moving between 303.75 and 281.25 degrees

so at 300 degress wnw it is only 4 degrees away from being considered NW movement

[Zardoz]

...looking like its really getting organized.

Definitely:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[Brent]

Here's a hot-off-the-press McIDAS image of Florence.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence27.gif

It's about time it got organized.

[CrazyC83]

Here's a hot-off-the-press McIDAS image of Florence.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence27.gif

Thanks WxMan, looking like its really getting organized.

Now all she has to do is wake up to her better self.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's a hot-off-the-press McIDAS image of Florence.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence27.gif

It's about time it got organized.

Tell me about it... Hopefully we'll get to track a cane here soon.

[gatorcane]

it seems people are confused about the terms wnw and nw and dont understand what this exactly means

flo is moving wnw right now but wnw means anywhere within 11.25 degrees of 292.5 on the arc of 360

since there are 16 movement positions n nw nnw nne ne ene e ese se sse s ssw sw wsw w wnw and 360 degrees in a circle than 360/16 = 22.5

than each motion has a variable of the radius of the total degrees included in that movement window or 11.25 degrees from the TRUE movement degree

ex. 180 is due south this means due south encompasses any movement within 11.25 on either side of 180 thus south ( 180 +/-11.25 degrees) or 168.75- 191.25


so basically flow moving WNW means it is moving between 303.75 and 281.25 degrees

so at 300 degress wnw it is only 4 degrees away from being considered NW movement

good explanation thanks

[kenl01]

Doubt it's 50mph. Latest discussion indicated 35knots. That's minimal TS strength. I would agree with 35 Knots based on the overall structure and organization so far.

"THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHAPELESS WITH VERY ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTION...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 35 KNOTS."

I don't see how 35 Knots equates to 50mph, as of this morning that is.

[Scorpion]

Doubt it's 50mph. Latest discussion indicated 35knots. That's minimal TS strength. I would agree with 35 Knots based on the overall structure and organization so far.

"THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHAPELESS WITH VERY ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTION...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 35 KNOTS."

I don't see how 35 Knots equates to 50mph, as of this morning that is.

A little late for that statement. Might have made sense early this morning. Now it's probably 50 kts.

[gatorcane]

thank the troughs. If there were a 2004-like ridge Florida would be in big trouble:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html