Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[ROCK]

JB thinks this will be in the SE bahamas later this week.

I think that might be the case, as I look at some of the globals. They don't see it as a closed low right now but you can make it out heading in that direction.

[SouthFloridawx]

JB thinks this will be in the SE bahamas later this week.

I think that might be the case, as I look at some of the globals. They don't see it as a closed low right now but you can make it out heading in that direction.

EWG, did he say why he thought that?

[Patrick99]

back to the subject as it appears from reading about the H-box, that if a storm passes through the area, then it will most likely be a concern to Fla......that's if I'm understanding it correctly....

guess we just have to watch the speed of 93L.....I'm gathering that if it's forward speed stays slow, then it will mostly track west.....is this correct?

I think the H-Box is more of a prerequisite....it's more that if a storm passes north of the H-Box, then FL can pretty much forget about it (with rare exception).

Many storms have gone through the H-Box and not hit SE FL.

[SouthFloridawx]

Exerpt from the 205TWD from TPC

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 1KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO
21N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks this will be in the SE bahamas later this week.

I think that might be the case, as I look at some of the globals. They don't see it as a closed low right now but you can make it out heading in that direction.

EWG, did he say why he thought that?

He said it is using the ridging behind Florence to track west and that it will be able to develop once Florence moves far enough away. He thinks it will move 4-5 degrees west each day and eventually end up in the SE bahamas. so basically it will be the ridge between it and Florence that helps it to not turn out to sea right away.

[MetroMike]

Well if they don't see a closed low there they had better get some recon in there fast..It looks very impressive not to be classified as at least a depression.

[NONAME]

93L. is starting to get even more impressive TWO should hint at more chance of devlepment this time I would say then next set of T-numbers will be 2.0

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 102107
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[Brent]

Gordon??? Is that you???

[GeneratorPower]

Tonight? That means within the next six hours or so. Impressive. We might see advisories beginning at the 11pm cycle.

[NONAME]

I was right on i thing this will end up being Gordon by tommorow due to increasingly favorable atmosphere cause by Flo leaving and and increasing distance between the two.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Hmm must be why they didnt move the floater along with Flo. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html I guess Florence is making a baby LOL. Really cause this came from Flo didnt it. Good thing the models show this following its Mama Flo and not the US coast. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif One must feel bad for the folks in Bermuda though with 2 storms now that may come there way

[fci]

Tonight? That means within the next six hours or so. Impressive. We might see advisories beginning at the 11pm cycle.

If it is anything like the others this season there won't be a TD until at least 11 AM tomorrow.

[WindRunner]

Predictions on formation time now? I'm going with 11am on 9/11, as I always say the NHC likes to wait for visibles before classifying a system.

[CrazyC83]

Currently a TD, just needs Recon confirmation. That is my view. They should send the Recon in there after they are done with the current run with Florence and refueled.

[Bgator]

Even though the models take it to sea, why do mnay humans think it will continue west...?

[fci]

Even though the models take it to sea, why do mnay humans think it will continue west...?

What are the "non-humans" thinking???

[rainstorm]

if it should develop there is a big ridge.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[Bgator]

Even though the models take it to sea, why do mnay humans think it will continue west...?

What are the "non-humans" thinking???

They think that it will follow flo and go to sea...lol...

[Extremeweatherguy]

the models that take it out to sea are all the models that pro mets say not to look at: