Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

#161 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:19 pm

WxMan, what are the chances of the big mess in the Caribbean developing - looks suspicious, its there because of last weekend's big front.

#162 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:An old frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean with tropical waves moving through is a prime source of late-season storms. Better keep watching this area for the next few weeks. The later formation occurs, the sharper a northeast track it'll take.

what do you mean? would this be good for the US particularly FL since it would curve out quicker before impacting us?

<RICKY>

#163 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 2:03 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
wxman57 wrote:An old frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean with tropical waves moving through is a prime source of late-season storms. Better keep watching this area for the next few weeks. The later formation occurs, the sharper a northeast track it'll take.

what do you mean? would this be good for the US particularly FL since it would curve out quicker before impacting us?

<RICKY>

That's correct. The later any NW Caribbean system develops, the better the chance that it'll turn northeast quickly enough to miss the FL Peninsula.

#164 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 3:16 pm

I can see something trying to organize in the NW Caribbean and GOH, on the tail end of that front.

#165 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:20 pm

I was just looking back at some satellite imagery and model data/NHC statements that I'd saved from last October (Wilma). The NHC wasn't even mentioning possible development until 24 hours before it developed (Oct. 15th at 5pm). Two days before Wilma developed there was just a frontal boundary extending across the DR to just north of Panama. By the next day (Friday, Oct 14th), a "blob" had separated on the tail end of the front and it became an invest.

So development can occur very quickly in this area. Don't count on much warning from the NHC until it's about to develop. Thunderstorms are beginning to cluster around 17.5N/84.8W this afternoon. As always, the key will be PERSISTENCE.

Here's the shot of Wilma 36 hours before it was named. It consisted of an elongated area of thunderstorms along a decaying frontal boundary. Note the 1008mb pressure in the Caribbean. Pressures there now are 1008-1009mb. I'm not saying another Wilma will form, just that the potential for TS development exists.

#166 Postby **fci** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:48 pm

With Wxman57's response I feel several; "Here we go folks", "October surprises" and " :eek:

"s on their way.
This thread will remain alive even if the Tropics don't!

Sanibel · #167 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 5:10 pm

The 2006 effect will probably prevail here, but I'll be watching this curved cluster until it dissipates.

Kerry04 · #168 Postby **Kerry04** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:17 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST MON OCT 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/LANDSEA

Josephine96 · #169 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:55 pm

Sounds like the NHC thinks it may still have a shot with the "slow development may occur" lol

#170 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:21 pm

yes and the area is becoming even more concentrated this evening since they released that TWO - note the remnants of 93L are getting going now again just west of Jamaica. Cold front remnants and 93L finally meet up and now lets see what happens. I'm keeping an eye on it for climatological reasons.

WxMan, thanks for putting things in perspective, the area right now does look better than Wilma did when she first got going.

#171 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:42 pm

fci wrote:With Wxman57's response I feel several; "Here we go folks", "October surprises" and " "s on their way.
This thread will remain alive even if the Tropics don't!

Boy, I'm glad you're here to pop everyone's bubble, fci. Yeah, the hype is corny but it's worth it and I think it's fun. ;-)

#172 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:44 pm

fci wrote:With Wxman57's response I feel several; "Here we go folks", "October surprises" and " "s on their way.
This thread will remain alive even if the Tropics don't!

There ya go...

#173 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:47 pm

convection looking pretty impressive still south of cuba and east of Jamaica and it would appear this area is "breaking off" from the old frontal boundary. Persistence is always key here........

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #174 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:11 pm

Nothing is coming out of this system, also don't look for anything to develop intill 2007. What I think of this season is getting old here, so I won't say it. Sorry.

:lol:

This season reminds me of 1997, a little.

#175 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:15 pm

One intersesting observation from this recent discussion is that the GFS is more bullish on developing lows along this frontal boundary. I think South Florida is in for some good rains and t-storms minimally with the area developing in the NW Caribbean with the activity starting Wed and persisting for a few days into the beginning of the weekend.

Also the pressure gradient from the strong high to the north and the lower pressure across the NW Caribbean is causing some very high winds across the East Coast and Southeast coast of Florida.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 310041
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 PM EST MON OCT 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...BIG WX PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHETHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SE OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AND WHEN? BOTH
GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS WITH GFS BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS,
HOWEVER, HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET. NEWEST RUN OF THE GFS
DRAMATICALLY INCREASES POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT TRIES TO
DEVELOP...NO ONE...BUT SEVERAL LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE BOTH MODELS HAVE A GOOD
INITIALIZATION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS (T. WAVE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY) BELIEVE GFS MAY BE OVERDOING IT WITH EXAGGERATED
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AND WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY WHEN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE NOT INDICATING THIS AT
ALL. OUR INCLINATION IS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BOTH POPS/CLOUDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE GFS MAY GIVE A BETTER
INDICATION...IF THEY ARE CONSISTENT...OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT UNTIL THEN WILL GO WITH POPS MUCH LOWER THAN
GFS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THE NAM.

#176 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:26 pm

Notice also the NHC added a 1008MB low now to the area just East of the Yucatan:

Click fronts
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Latest TWO:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310320
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST MON OCT 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND EXTEND ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/LANDSEA

#177 Postby **fci** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:One intersesting observation from this recent discussion is that the GFS is more bullish on developing lows along this frontal boundary. I think South Florida is in for some good rains and t-storms minimally with the area developing in the NW Caribbean with the activity starting Wed and persisting for a few days into the beginning of the weekend.

Let's hope that we get rains from this.
We're at about the end of the rainy season and any we get now will be real beneficial as we get into the dry, fire, drought season. Unless we get El Nino rains this winter which would be quite fine with me.

Epsilon_Fan · #178 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:34 pm

its teasing us, if nothing else...

#179 Postby **fci** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:34 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
fci wrote:With Wxman57's response I feel several; "Here we go folks", "October surprises" and " "s on their way.
This thread will remain alive even if the Tropics don't!

Boy, I'm glad you're here to pop everyone's bubble, fci. Yeah, the hype is corny but it's worth it and I think it's fun.

Ah yes... just call me your party pooper!!

I am just so glad that this season is apparently coming to a quiet end as we celebrate Halloween anniversarying last year's curfews, darkness and a "trick or treat" that did not happen due to Wilma.

Anytime you need me to pop the "impending doom" bubble... just ask!!!!!!

:beam:

SouthFloridawx wrote:
fci wrote:With Wxman57's response I feel several; "Here we go folks", "October surprises" and " "s on their way.
This thread will remain alive even if the Tropics don't!

There ya go...

Thanks Nathan... I needed that!!!!

#180 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:49 pm

thunderstorm activity continues to blossum in the W. Caribbean tonight and I believe we are seeing some of the coldest cloud tops all season as the wave from 93L interacts with the old frontal boundary

Its a perfect recipe for something tropical to get going. All we need now is persistence. Will it just go poof by tomorrow AM as 99% of everything has West of 60W or will it still be there and even more concentrated?

Trick or treat basically to start Halloween??? :eek:

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