ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[HURAKAN]

Just to compare, look how fast has the temperature decreased in the Equatorial Pacific in just over a month. La Niña is coming and fast.

[hurricanetrack]

I think it is funny how at about this time last year they were saying we were already in a La Nina and that it could lead to more Atlantic hurricanes in 2006.

Not so much La Nina in 2006 as it was a rather modest El Nino.

2006 was a tough year for us hurricane watchers- but excellent, just excellent for those who suffered so much in 04/05.

[hurricanetrack]

This was issued in early Feb. 2006:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2572.htm

Funny how THAT turned out. Beware the El Nino!

Who knows? We will just have to wait and see, but it looks for real this time.

[cycloneye]

This was issued in early Feb. 2006:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2572.htm

Funny how THAT turned out. Beware the El Nino!

Who knows? We will just have to wait and see, but it looks for real this time.

"It is too early to say with confidence what effects this La Niña event will have on the 2006 hurricane season."

The above sentence from the 2006 outlook that Mark Sudduth posted.A difference from that 2006 statement from the 2/28/07 one is that the sentence above is not there.Time will tell what will occur in the next few months with this.

[AussieMark]

the POAMA model has it strengthening in short term and moderating thereafter

Mar: -0.94
Apr: -0.77
May: -0.65
Jun: -0.56
Jul: -0.49
Aug: -0.43
Sep: -0.35
Oct: -0.24

if it follows this pattern it could be a neutral pattern by the time the peak of the hurricane season arrives

[AnnularCane]

All these rapid changes from La Nina to neutral to El Nino to neutral to La Nina, etc. in the space of a year are making me dizzy! What gives? I don't remember it being like this before.

[AussieMark]

here is the last 6 weeks with Nino 3, 3.4 and 4

Nino 3
2007011520070121 0.77
2007012220070128 0.64
2007012920070204 0.49
2007020520070211 0.34
2007021220070218 0.15
2007021920070225 0.08

Nino 4
2007011520070121 0.67
2007012220070128 0.57
2007012920070204 0.52
2007020520070211 0.49
2007021220070218 0.65
2007021920070225 0.53

Nino 3.4
2007011520070121 0.57
2007012220070128 0.43
2007012920070204 0.32
2007020520070211 0.20
2007021220070218 0.20
2007021920070225 0.05

[cycloneye]

Here she comes,from the subsurface.

[Category 5]

Other then the SST cooling, are there any other signs of La Nina surfacing?

[AussieMark]

fromthe last BOM ENSO statement had this

The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the SOI has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average.

All of these you could say are indicative of a developing La Nina

[Jim Hughes]

Jim Hughes,you were sticking with your La Nina forecast from a long time ago saying what now NOAA confirms in their statement on 2/28/07 (Read NOAA Statement at post above this one) .Now,what remains to be seen is if the La Nina event will stick during all the 2007 Hurricane Season,or it will be a short episode and Neutral or even El Nino trys to come back late in 2007.

The EL Nino is not coming back Luis. The only question that remains is how strong the La Nina gets and what type of an effect it will have upon the upcoming season. This depends upon the time line and the overall strength.

[AussieMark]

Jim the models have it moderating by the Aug-Oct period do u agree with this?

i.e

Aug: -0.42
Sep: -0.33
Oct: -0.22

[Jim Hughes]

Jim the models have it moderating by the Aug-Oct period do u agree with this?

i.e

Aug: -0.42
Sep: -0.33
Oct: -0.22

Not at this time. Those numbers do not even show a weak La Nina present by NOAA's standard.

[OURAGAN]

LA NINA IS COMING:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

LA NINA IS COMING:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

Well... it looks like it's coming faster than we thought. Although last year La Nina threatend, but never developed. Although as discussed on this thread previously, it seems as though conditions are different now.

[Jim Hughes]

LA NINA IS COMING:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

Well... it looks like it's coming faster than we thought. Although last year La Nina threatend, but never developed. Although as discussed on this thread previously, it seems as though conditions are different now.

I think you are mixed up a little SouthFloridawx. The last La Nina started to develop in the fall of 05' and it lasted into early 06. The EL Nino was forming in the spring of 06' and it put a damper on the 06 hurricane season and it lasted into the winter before rapidly weakening. The La Nina was never a factor last year and not to many people thought that it ever would be.

[SouthFloridawx]

LA NINA IS COMING:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

Well... it looks like it's coming faster than we thought. Although last year La Nina threatend, but never developed. Although as discussed on this thread previously, it seems as though conditions are different now.

I think you are mixed up a little SouthFloridawx. The last La Nina started to develop in the fall of 05' and it lasted into early 06. The EL Nino was forming in the spring of 06' and it put a damper on the 06 hurricane season and it lasted into the winter before rapidly weakening. The La Nina was never a factor last year and not to many people thought that it ever would be.

Ah yes, I think you are correct sir. The past few hurricane seasons possibly have seem to run together. But, I do remember talk around the boards after the 05 El Nino faded and the waters cooled a little bit, before El Nino surfacing as you mentioned.



[web]http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.14.2006.gif[/web]

[Jim Hughes]

LA NINA IS COMING:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

Well... it looks like it's coming faster than we thought. Although last year La Nina threatend, but never developed. Although as discussed on this thread previously, it seems as though conditions are different now.

I think you are mixed up a little SouthFloridawx. The last La Nina started to develop in the fall of 05' and it lasted into early 06. The EL Nino was forming in the spring of 06' and it put a damper on the 06 hurricane season and it lasted into the winter before rapidly weakening. The La Nina was never a factor last year and not to many people thought that it ever would be.

Ah yes, I think you are correct sir. The past few hurricane seasons possibly have seem to run together. But, I do remember talk around the boards after the 05 El Nino faded and the waters cooled a little bit, before El Nino surfacing as you mentioned.



[web]http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.14.2006.gif[/web]

Well this board has a habit of leaning toward what they want to see, like the majority forecasting year's hurricane season to be considerably above average, instead of listening to what the variables were telling them.

Plus the SST maps are nice but they only tell part of the story. The SST's right now barely show signs of a La Nina but a couple of other things, like the subsurface, and the extreme negative AAM say otherwise.

[SouthFloridawx]

LA NINA IS COMING:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

Well... it looks like it's coming faster than we thought. Although last year La Nina threatend, but never developed. Although as discussed on this thread previously, it seems as though conditions are different now.

I think you are mixed up a little SouthFloridawx. The last La Nina started to develop in the fall of 05' and it lasted into early 06. The EL Nino was forming in the spring of 06' and it put a damper on the 06 hurricane season and it lasted into the winter before rapidly weakening. The La Nina was never a factor last year and not to many people thought that it ever would be.

Ah yes, I think you are correct sir. The past few hurricane seasons possibly have seem to run together. But, I do remember talk around the boards after the 05 El Nino faded and the waters cooled a little bit, before El Nino surfacing as you mentioned.
[web]http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.14.2006.gif[/web]

Well this board has a habit of leaning toward what they want to see, like the majority forecasting year's hurricane season to be considerably above average, instead of listening to what the variables were telling them.
Plus the SST maps are nice but they only tell part of the story. The SST's right now barely show signs of a La Nina but a couple of other things, like the subsurface, and the extreme negative AAM say otherwise.

Well... I'm not quite as an knowledgeable in ENSO as you are. Perhaps if you have any educational material on El Nino/La Nina that you could share with me to learn the basics?

[Jim Hughes]

Well... I'm not quite as an knowledgeable in ENSO as you are. Perhaps if you have any educational material on El Nino/La Nina that you could share with me to learn the basics?

I think you probably know more than what you give yourself credit for. I just think you had the dates mixed up of when they formed / peaked.

I do not have links to any tutorials on the El Nino or La Nina but I am sure a google search would come up with some websites about it.