Atlantic INVEST 94L

[CrazyC83]

All this over a cloudless invest.....I can just imagine what the meat of the season is going to be like around here.

Yeah, imagine another Katrina-like storm...

Lets hope things remain out to sea this season and hopefully folks living in hurricane prone areas have taken advantage of these quite times and have gone out and gotten there supplies and created an emergency plan for there familys.Adrian

Yeah, a Category 5 fish-spinner would be a rare event in itself - there hasn't been one in the Atlantic in nearly 50 years...

Then again, think of all the poor creatures out in the mid-Atlantic if a Katrina-like storm decided to go for a trip...

[windstorm99]

All this over a cloudless invest.....I can just imagine what the meat of the season is going to be like around here.

Yeah, imagine another Katrina-like storm...

Lets hope things remain out to sea this season and hopefully folks living in hurricane prone areas have taken advantage of these quite times and have gone out and gotten there supplies and created an emergency plan for there familys.Adrian

Yeah, a Category 5 fish-spinner would be a rare event in itself - there hasn't been one in the Atlantic in nearly 50 years...

Its been a while since a cat5 has struck a major city and as we know katrina's intensity dropped of to cat3 before landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

a hurricane landfall in NC

According to that the pressure would be around 990mb, which is still most likely a high-end tropical storm. Still, I'm thinking dissipation.

i was just stating that i find the gfdl way off... and 990 is plenty.. for a hurricane we have had 996 hurricanes... recently the pressure wind ratio has come under more scrutiny since 04 05 season because multiple storms seemed to have very very low pressure but winds were'nt that high... and then there is the intesifying factor .. winds may go up then the pressures finally come down.. its no longer a world of pressure wind ratios.. and besides the gfdl says it would have 66kt ... so that a hurricane..


but again i think the gfdl it way off. a development is not likely

[RattleMan]

All this over a cloudless invest.....I can just imagine what the meat of the season is going to be like around here.

Yeah, imagine another Katrina-like storm...

Lets hope things remain out to sea this season and hopefully folks living in hurricane prone areas have taken advantage of these quite times and have gone out and gotten there supplies and created an emergency plan for there familys.Adrian

Yeah, a Category 5 fish-spinner would be a rare event in itself - there hasn't been one in the Atlantic in nearly 50 years...

Then again, think of all the poor creatures out in the mid-Atlantic if a Katrina-like storm decided to go for a trip...

List of Cat 5 fishspinners:

Hurricane Dog (1950)
Hurricane Easy (1951)
Hurricane Cleo (1958)

[ronjon]

a hurricane landfall in NC

Extremely unlikely but IF this were to develop, it would have to be in the GFDL run position (off the NE tip of Yucatan) to do so. This is the most likely spot for future development. Unless the upper level winds relax though, there isn't a chance it will happen.

[Weatherfreak000]

somehow I highly doubt this will happen!!!!!!

Lol.



The GFDL is forecasting a Category One/70MPH TS to impact the Carolinas and I cannot believe that this is a current GFDL run. If the Wind Shear graphic i'm seeing is correct I can assume 94L would be over the Loop Current somewhere about 96 to 110 hours from now, and shear is forecasted to be at or around 20 knots at that time.

I can see maybe development but THAT development is insane. What a screwy run.

[Aric Dunn]

a hurricane landfall in NC

Extremely unlikely but IF this were to develop, it would have to be in the GFDL run position (off the NE tip of Yucatan) to do so. This is the most likely spot for future development. Unless the upper level winds relax though, there isn't a chance it will happen.

i guess i going to have to change that post because everyone seems to think.. that i think its going to be hurricane... i was just more or less laughing at the GFDL

[Cyclone1]

A lot of convection has blown up recently to the east of this thing. I'm not giving up on it.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Aric Dunn]

somehow I highly doubt this will happen!!!!!!




Lol.



The GFDL is forecasting a Category One/70MPH TS to impact the Carolinas and I cannot believe that this is a current GFDL run. If the Wind Shear graphic i'm seeing is correct I can assume 94L would be over the Loop Current somewhere about 96 to 110 hours from now, and shear is forecasted to be at or around 20 knots at that time.

I can see maybe development but THAT development is insane. What a screwy run.

it says 66kts(which is a hurricane) at the landfall .. but yeah .... not likely .. at all ....

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of convection has blown up recently to the east of this thing. I'm not giving up on it.

please read previous post .. on what that convection is to the "EAST"

it IS THE ULL AND THERE IS NOTHING THERE AT THE SURFACE

just sse winds

[Aric Dunn]

here is the 66kts.......

just offshore..

[Cyclone1]

A lot of convection has blown up recently to the east of this thing. I'm not giving up on it.

please read previous post .. on what that convection is to the "EAST"

it IS THE ULL AND THERE IS NOTHING THERE AT THE SURFACE

just sse winds

I know there is nothing there. Which is why I said, to the east of the actual INVEST.

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of convection has blown up recently to the east of this thing. I'm not giving up on it.

please read previous post .. on what that convection is to the "EAST"

it IS THE ULL AND THERE IS NOTHING THERE AT THE SURFACE

just sse winds

I know there is nothing there. Which is why I said, to the east of the actual INVEST.

but you said "im not giving up on it" !!!

[chadtm80]

A lot of convection has blown up recently to the east of this thing. I'm not giving up on it.

please read previous post .. on what that convection is to the "EAST"

it IS THE ULL AND THERE IS NOTHING THERE AT THE SURFACE

just sse winds

I know there is nothing there. Which is why I said, to the east of the actual INVEST.

but you said "im not giving up on it" !!!

You must not be either seeing you have made several posts in this thread.. no?

[Aric Dunn]

I dont even think any of the models are even running .. anymore on the invest.......

[windstorm99]

Iam not buying the GFDL forcast with a hurricane up in the carolina's.The GFDL has a history of over doing things sometimes.

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of convection has blown up recently to the east of this thing. I'm not giving up on it.

please read previous post .. on what that convection is to the "EAST"

it IS THE ULL AND THERE IS NOTHING THERE AT THE SURFACE

just sse winds

I know there is nothing there. Which is why I said, to the east of the actual INVEST.

but you said "im not giving up on it" !!!

You must not be either seeing you have made several posts in this thread.. no?

huh?

[Cyclone1]

A lot of convection has blown up recently to the east of this thing. I'm not giving up on it.

please read previous post .. on what that convection is to the "EAST"

it IS THE ULL AND THERE IS NOTHING THERE AT THE SURFACE

just sse winds

I know there is nothing there. Which is why I said, to the east of the actual INVEST.

but you said "im not giving up on it" !!!

Because according to the lates WV loop, it seems to be moving westward (the convection) Alberto's convection remaind largley displaced to its east through most of its lifetime.

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of convection has blown up recently to the east of this thing. I'm not giving up on it.

please read previous post .. on what that convection is to the "EAST"

it IS THE ULL AND THERE IS NOTHING THERE AT THE SURFACE

just sse winds

I know there is nothing there. Which is why I said, to the east of the actual INVEST.

but you said "im not giving up on it" !!!

Because according to the lates WV loop, it seems to be moving westward (the convection) Alberto's convection remaind largley displaced to its east through most of its lifetime.

this is way different than alberto... and barry...