Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[tailgater]

I 've just read the last two pages, so forgive me if I missed something but has the Idea of second center been squashed because it seems as if the naked swirl is rotating CCW, NW, W and now a little Sw. and if so the second center would be still stuck in the ITCZ?

[Berwick Bay]

I wouldn't be too quick to write off 96L. I think the convection (although detached from the center) is way too impressive. This system meets my own definition of Wave-Depression. I expect the convection to remain very persistent, and as 96L moves a little further west to feel less of the N-S shear coming around the E end of the big Bermuda High to the north. I look for another round of organization in about 36 hours or so (perhaps tomorrow night). At that time we may see a permanent upgrade to Depression. Then looking for W to WNW and into the Carribean just south of Barbados. Thinking that it may be a tropical storm at that stage (50-55 mph) or so.

[Aric Dunn]

I 've just read the last two pages, so forgive me if I missed something but has the Idea of second center been squashed because it seems as if the naked swirl is rotating CCW, NW, W and now a little Sw. and if so the second center would be still stuck in the ITCZ?

i dont think so ! but just watch a new center could form

[WeatherEmperor]

I 've just read the last two pages, so forgive me if I missed something but has the Idea of second center been squashed because it seems as if the naked swirl is rotating CCW, NW, W and now a little Sw. and if so the second center would be still stuck in the ITCZ?

i dont think so ! but just watch a new center could form

Defiant until the end arent we Aric? Just kidding bro! Anyways dont worry too much about 96L. We will have plenty of systems to track this season. I guess you can just consider this one a great practice.

<RICKY>

[Aric Dunn]

I 've just read the last two pages, so forgive me if I missed something but has the Idea of second center been squashed because it seems as if the naked swirl is rotating CCW, NW, W and now a little Sw. and if so the second center would be still stuck in the ITCZ?

i dont think so ! but just watch a new center could form

Defiant until the end arent we Aric? Just kidding bro! Anyways dont worry too much about 96L. We will have plenty of systems to track this season. I guess you can just consider this one a great practice.

<RICKY>

huh

[WeatherEmperor]

i was just saying that cause i thought you were trying to not give up on 96L developing. sorry if i misinterpreted.

<RICKY>

[Aric Dunn]

i was just saying that cause i thought you were trying to not give up on 96L developing. sorry if i misinterpreted.

<RICKY>

oh .. but i never say never completely .. there is always chance

[Weatherfreak000]

96L is now gonna enter continually degrading Environmental conditions.


If it isn't a Depression by 10AM tomorrow, it's without a doubt over for this system.


I don't know if I think it can become a TS anymore, it would need to develop quickly.

[Berwick Bay]

Hey Aric, I'm with you on this one (which means you could be in trouble lol). But I think this system will be with us for several days to come. And like you, I think that convection is way too impressive and now consistent (been there for days) to simply write off because of the present shear. Shear in this area is variable, and I think that as the system moves further west, we'll see "marginally" improving conditions for development. Look for an upgrade before entering the Carribean.

[skysummit]

BB and Aric....I'm with both you guys. Didn't I say it last night? I said it'll lose its convection and people will begin writing it off this morning. Look what's happening. There's too many that bounce 180 degrees when convection fires and dissipates. As long as the LLC can maintain itself, it still has a chance down the road. Heck....it's over 1000 miles east of the islands!!! Who knows what'll happen 3 - 5 days from now if it can hold its own.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey Aric, I'm with you on this one (which means you could be in trouble lol). But I think this system will be with us for several days to come. And like you, I think that convection is way too impressive and now consistent (been there for days) to simply write off because of the present shear. Shear in this area is variable, and I think that as the system moves further west, we'll see "marginally" improving conditions for development. Look for an upgrade before entering the Carribean.

well im not writing it off because i know things can change fast.. and not always how the models or current trend can foretell ... as for the convection right now its more associated with the ITCZ .. otherwise i believe that it would be completely naked.. its the iTCZ that is keeping at least some convection near it..

[windstorm99]

Hey Aric, I'm with you on this one (which means you could be in trouble lol). But I think this system will be with us for several days to come. And like you, I think that convection is way too impressive and now consistent (been there for days) to simply write off because of the present shear. Shear in this area is variable, and I think that as the system moves further west, we'll see "marginally" improving conditions for development. Look for an upgrade before entering the Carribean.

Shear is not the problem here at all in my opinion...Its the dry air surrounding this naked swirl its basically running into a microwave.

Very little chance with all this dry air.

[vmax135]

Shear is not the problem here at all in my opinion...Its the dry air surrounding this naked swirl its basically running into a microwave.

I agree with Windstorm99... I'm not necessarily certain that shear is the primary inhibiting factor at the moment. There does appear to be some (maybe slightly more than current shear maps are indicating)... but, in general, it doesn't appear to be excessively strong. For the last 48hrs the LLC has been straddling a rather sharp transition to the drier air mass to the north and west. The diurnal convection that has been firing has been along the "moist" edge of that line, near and just south of the center. A combination of the daily diurnal fluctuation in convection, coupled with the LLC periodically moving into the more stable airmass appears to be having the greatest effect.

Additionally, even drier air to the north and west appears to be expanding southward a bit, to the north of the system, on the last few frames of the WV loop and is encroaching on the low-level center. That said, the LLC is well defined and diurnal flare-ups of convection continue to occur, near and to the south of the center so, for the moment, it seems that the system will just be holding the status quo.

-=Michael=-
http://www.tropmet.com

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is not the problem here at all in my opinion...Its the dry air surrounding this naked swirl its basically running into a microwave.

I agree with Windstorm99... I'm not necessarily certain that shear is the primary inhibiting factor at the moment. There does appear to be some (maybe slightly more than current shear maps are indicating)... but, in general, it doesn't appear to be excessively strong. For the last 48hrs the LLC has been straddling a rather sharp transition to the drier air mass to the north and west. The diurnal convection that has been firing has been along the "moist" edge of that line, near and just south of the center. A combination of the daily diurnal fluctuation in convection, coupled with the LLC periodically moving into the more stable airmass appears to be having the greatest effect.

Additionally, even drier air to the north and west appears to be expanding southward a bit, to the north of the system, on the last few frames of the WV loop and is encroaching on the low-level center. That said, the LLC is well defined and diurnal flare-ups of convection continue to occur, near and to the south of the center so, for the moment, it seems that the system will just be holding the status quo.

-=Michael=-
http://www.tropmet.com

i agreed the little shear that seemed to help blow the convection from last night was temporary ...

[caneman]

Well, looking at the GOM near Texas and the area in the Bahamas, I believe we might outta keep a little closer eye towards home. These areas look interesting and if either pop would have more immediate impact.

[windstorm99]

Shear is not the problem here at all in my opinion...Its the dry air surrounding this naked swirl its basically running into a microwave.

I agree with Windstorm99... I'm not necessarily certain that shear is the primary inhibiting factor at the moment. There does appear to be some (maybe slightly more than current shear maps are indicating)... but, in general, it doesn't appear to be excessively strong. For the last 48hrs the LLC has been straddling a rather sharp transition to the drier air mass to the north and west. The diurnal convection that has been firing has been along the "moist" edge of that line, near and just south of the center. A combination of the daily diurnal fluctuation in convection, coupled with the LLC periodically moving into the more stable airmass appears to be having the greatest effect.

Additionally, even drier air to the north and west appears to be expanding southward a bit, to the north of the system, on the last few frames of the WV loop and is encroaching on the low-level center. That said, the LLC is well defined and diurnal flare-ups of convection continue to occur, near and to the south of the center so, for the moment, it seems that the system will just be holding the status quo.

-=Michael=-
http://www.tropmet.com

Hey micheal did you see the lighting show last night?I got it on video tape.

Hope you have a great 4th watch out for the lighting this afternoon.


Satellite view before my power went out.

[msbee]

For the members who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands I can say that we are in good shape in terms of not having to deal with a Cyclone in our vicinity.Anyway,let's keep watcing the wave in terms of how much rain and some squalls it may bring to some of the islands starting on Sunday.msbee,dont change your travel plans and enjoy your trip.

Thanks Luis
I am starting to feel better about those travel plans now.
Looks more positive for all of us.
But I'll still be watching closely.
Barbara

[storms in NC]

Dry air has been the problem for a few years now. We haven't had a CV storm in a while just the ones that curve on out to sea. How many was there last year at one time. If it wasn't the dry air the shears and the B high. Seem like they are getting to be home made any more.

What are the odds for a CV storm this year? It don't look as dry as it has in the past. But there is still dry air out there.


Deb

[NONAME]

Is the durinal Min right now that wouldn't help it either would it.

[SouthFloridawx]

This system will be fine... We'll see some flare up tonight and then again tomorrow. It's not going to just die off...

There is a definite WNW motion also and the circulation is very well defined on vis. It's not dead, but its certainly nothing to worry about yet. What is probably going to happen is, that it will keep moving WNW and enter the South Caribbean where it will flare up.