Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 221508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF
BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WWWW

[Aric Dunn]

The very weak surface circulation that Aric and I had noticed yesterday north of DR has moved NNE during the night, still very weak, located this morning near 25N/70W, at 12z ship reports to the SSW of where broad weak circulation is, reported a SW wind.

yeah its still there.. and the gfs still keeps that area seperate from the rest of the mess... although i do now see a small circulation near Bermuda.. but i still will my money on the one further south... since out of the two .. its seems to have the best chance .(which does not say much at all )

[cycloneye]

Aric,Just southeast of Bermuda is where aparently the area of interest has shifted per TWO.Edited accordinly title.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,Just southeast of Bermuda is where aparently the area of interest has shifted per TWO.Edited accordinly title.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF
BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.

[Aric Dunn]

still to the south .. im sure they see both areas.. the models do ..

[cycloneye]

THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

[Aric Dunn]

THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

ok .. ok .. but its still both area..

i dont mind really..

[windstorm99]

Even if this area becomes better organized the odds of it affecting the united states are slim.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is recon still planning on going into this thing?

[NDG]

Yes, the area SE of Bermuda looks better, structural wise, but at the surface I don't see anything organized, with very high surface pressures of 1018mb, at least the area east of The Bahamas has lower pressures and signs of a circulation and inflow going into the area of convection.

[cycloneye]

Is recon still planning on going into this thing?

NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 22 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE.
3. THE INVEST SCHEDULED FOR 22/1800Z WAS CANX BY NHC AT 22/0100Z.
THE FIX MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 23/0600Z WAS CANX BY NHC AT
22/1400Z.

Nada.

[Stormavoider]

Bermuda radar looks interesting.

[wxman57]

THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

I cannot see anything that's become "better organized" out there. That's why any recon has been canceled. The upper low is kicking out to the northeast. No significant convection with it. Any micro eddy southwest of there is insignificant, as there is no convergence associated and wind shear is too high. This system is dead.

Oh, and Bermuda radar is showing the circulation around the upper low, nothing at the surface. Pressures there are 1020mb.

[cycloneye]

THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

I cannot see anything that's become "better organized" out there. That's why any recon has been canceled. The upper low is kicking out to the northeast. No significant convection with it. Any micro eddy southwest of there is insignificant, as there is no convergence associated and wind shear is too high. This system is dead.

Oh, and Bermuda radar is showing the circulation around the upper low, nothing at the surface. Pressures there are 1020mb.

To clarify that I didn't wrote that as I took an excerpt from the 11:30 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

[wxman57]

THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

I cannot see anything that's become "better organized" out there. That's why any recon has been canceled. The upper low is kicking out to the northeast. No significant convection with it. Any micro eddy southwest of there is insignificant, as there is no convergence associated and wind shear is too high. This system is dead.

Oh, and Bermuda radar is showing the circulation around the upper low, nothing at the surface. Pressures there are 1020mb.

To clarify that I didn't wrote that as I took an excerpt from the 11:30 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

Right, I knew that cycloneye. Don't know what the NHC is looking at. Maybe they're bored?

[Aric Dunn]

its ok its going to be a cat 7

[Cyclone1]

its ok its going to be a cat 7

Aric, that's just dumb! It'll be a category four, tops.

[Aric Dunn]

its ok its going to be a cat 7

Aric, that's just dumb! It'll be a category four, tops.

oh sorry.. i forgot.. yeah .. its not hollywood.. yeah so maybe cat 5

[NDG]

So does the topic has to be changed back again or start a new one, since there coud be two different systems coming out of this?

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB SFC LOW
CENTERED IN THE WEST ATLC NEAR 34N73W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N65W IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N61W SW
TO 24N71W. TWO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS EXIST BELOW THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE FIRST IS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA...AND THE
SECOND IS AT THE FAR SOUTH END NEAR 25N70W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 24N-27N AND 67W-71W
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
1034 MB SFC HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 39N42W. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A AREA OF 20 TO 25
KT NELY WINDS FROM 20N TO 30N EAST OF 45W.

[Aric Dunn]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB SFC LOW
CENTERED IN THE WEST ATLC NEAR 34N73W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N65W IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N61W SW
TO 24N71W. TWO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS EXIST BELOW THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE FIRST IS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA...AND THE
SECOND IS AT THE FAR SOUTH END NEAR 25N70W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 24N-27N AND 67W-71W
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
1034 MB SFC HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 39N42W. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A AREA OF 20 TO 25
KT NELY WINDS FROM 20N TO 30N EAST OF 45W.

see told you.. lol ..