Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Weatherfreak14]

NW movement, HMMMM that is interesting.

it looks more west on the sat.. maybe alittle WNW but not NW.

[Blown Away]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 011400Z AUG 07//
WTNT 01 KNGU 011400
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/301130Z JUL 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 301200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 58.0W TO 15.6N 70.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 011400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 58.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10KNOTS.

NW?

[Ivanhater]

This is NOT moving NW...most likely an error

[Derek Ortt]

the GOM could possibly weaken the ridge a little, allowing for a slightly more north of west track in the WC

[HURAKAN]

Certainly a very interesting TWO at 1130 AM. Could this mean we will have RECON today?

[punkyg]

woooooooooooooo.

[Weatherfreak14]

Certainly a very interesting TWO at 1130 AM. Could this mean we will have RECON today?

I think most likely we will have a RECON today. the way it looks now, Oh yea.

[Ivanhater]

the GOM could possibly weaken the ridge a little, allowing for a slightly more north of west track in the WC

Derek..I keep hearing about a weakness between the high over Florida and high over texas..is there indications of this closing soon?

[windstorm99]

I cant pull up 99L on NRL?

[Derek Ortt]

I'll need to look, though as long as there is that troughing in the GOM... thatw eakness cannot close

[bbadon]

the GOM could possibly weaken the ridge a little, allowing for a slightly more north of west track in the WC

Thank you Derek I was think the same thing. Interesting setup unfolding. IMO

[Cyclone1]

I cant pull up 99L on NRL?

Neither can I.

[Ivanhater]

I'll need to look, though as long as there is that troughing in the GOM... thatw eakness cannot close

Thanks Derek...

[TexWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

I see a WNW to NW heading...
unless that's just a little flare up, making it appear to be NW.

[windstorm99]

Can someone explain to me if i have to clear out something on my PC to view 99L on the navy site?Thanks Adrian

[boca]

Does everyone remember Ernesto track last year cutting thru Eastern Cuba then hitting Florida around Key Largo. Since the Bermuda high is put on hold and trough coming into Florida forecasted by Tampa NWS from the ENE will that create a weakness to pull 99L if it develops northward towards Florida?

[tailgater]

12.0N 58.0W, I would have thought it would closer to 13.0N

[windstorm99]

Does everyone remember Ernesto track last year cutting thru Eastern Cuba then hitting Florida around Key Largo. Since the Bermuda high is put on hold and trough coming into Florida forecasted by Tampa NWS from the ENE will that create a weakness to pull 99L if it develops northward towards Florida?

Boca i was just thinking the same thing....

[SouthFloridawx]

Does everyone remember Ernesto track last year cutting thru Eastern Cuba then hitting Florida around Key Largo. Since the Bermuda high is put on hold and trough coming into Florida forecasted by Tampa NWS from the ENE will that create a weakness to pull 99L if it develops northward towards Florida?

As of right now, looking at the 500mb from GFS... I would say that a track to the west then, across the Yuck and into Mexico would probably be prudent. Not sure what upper level features, or disturbances may break down the ridge, but it does look like a case for a westward moving system.

[skysummit]

Where are all the "it's dead posts"...."stick a fork in it"...."next"? Come on, I really want to know.