GFS continues to develop African wave

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is something forming...or is it just models right now?

[skysummit]

Is something forming...or is it just models right now?

Just models right now, but the wave in question should be moving off of Africa within 24 - 30 hours.

[gtalum]

It's clearly going to become a Katrina-sized Cat 5 heading right up Tampa Bay.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That won't happen I'll use voodoo...

[ronjon]

Wow, look at the super deep convection from the wave over Africa.

[gatorcane]

Yep, here comes the start of the 2007 season folks.

Are you ready??

(you didn't think it was going to be quiet through October did you?)

[gatorcane]

Here is another shot:

[gatorcane]

Water vapor loop showing the dry air is retreating into the Northern Sahara.

I'd have to say that suddenly things are coming together out there...as the models have been insisting...

Notice the dry air migrating NE in this motion loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

One thing different about this wave is that it seem to have a buffer ahead of it of moist air and moderate to scattered showers.....that will help it shield off the SAL and dry air in my opinion.

This one means business folks. It's also exiting at the perfect 10N lattitude just south of the big SAL envelope.

[gatorcane]

[Aric Dunn]

Water vapor loop showing the dry air is retreating into the Northern Sahara.

I'd have to say that suddenly things are coming together out there...as the models have been insisting...

Notice the dry air migrating NE in this motion loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

One thing different about this wave is that it seem to have a buffer ahead of it of moist air and moderate to scattered showers.....that will help it shield off the SAL and dry air in my opinion.

This one means business folks. It's also exiting at the perfect 10N lattitude just south of the big SAL envelope.

actually it rained over the area where a lot of the dust comes from the other day .. which is rare..

[storms in NC]

Just wait and see if it holds up after it hit the water. Remember last year they looked good over land but as soon as it came off it went poof.

[Weatherfreak000]

Agreed, need to sit another 24 hours on this wave so it can get outshore.

[Blown Away]

Do the models this far out typically move the systems to fast or to slow across the Atlantic. Let's say the GFS says a wave leaving the African coast will landfall in SFL in 14 days, does it normally end up being more or less days??

[Brent]

WOW.

I think we're going to have a parade of storms.

[dwg71]

I've heard for three weeks now "things are coming together and its about to blowup", or something along those lines. Large waves have been coming off the African coast for 6 weeks now. None have developed.

Everything is just speculation at this time. We are still 5 weeks from peak of season. Lets hope nothing forms any time soon.

[Scorpion]

I've heard for three weeks now "things are coming together and its about to blowup", or something along those lines. Large waves have been coming off the African coast for 6 weeks now. None have developed.

Everything is just speculation at this time. We are still 5 weeks from peak of season. Lets hope nothing forms any time soon.

This is a tropical weather message board, of course we want storms to form.

[Hurricaneman]

I've heard for three weeks now "things are coming together and its about to blowup", or something along those lines. Large waves have been coming off the African coast for 6 weeks now. None have developed.

Everything is just speculation at this time. We are still 5 weeks from peak of season. Lets hope nothing forms any time soon.

This is a tropical weather message board, of course we want storms to form.

Hes right, but we just dont want these storms to hit land and destroy all our stuff

[Cyclone1]

Miss Cleo says this is gonna be a biggie, but she also said my cat would die today. I don't have a cat....

[hial2]

Miss Cleo ....

You're dating yourself,Cyclone....better stick with "Harry Potter"....

[Cyclone1]

Miss Cleo ....

You're dating yourself,Cyclone....better stick with "Harry Potter"....

I hate everything to do with Harry Potter.