System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[skysummit]

Uhh...the 12z CMC now takes that little piece of energy and moves it due west, but now develops an area near south Florida and moves it to the Keys:

[Aric Dunn]

Uhh...the 12z CMC now takes that little piece of energy and moves it due west, but now develops an area near south Florida and moves it to the Keys:

lol .. thats pretty funny... but again its not the details that need to be paid attention to.. its the fact that 3 models are showing something so im just going to watch and not write it off yet.

[Sanibel]

Caribbean convection above Venezuela now starting to thicken slightly (very slightly).

[storms in NC]

unless things change in the Caribbean I don't think any thing will develop. But it can change but not any time real soon. JMO

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't really think we should be looking at the exact centers of the areas of low pressure these models are showing. Instead, I think we should look at it more in the sense that overall pressures will be lower than normal in the NW Caribbean and GOM next week...which could spell trouble. The exact details will come later, for now we should just know that something might try to form in that general region within 7 days.

[gatorcane]

I don't really think we should be looking at the exact centers of the areas of low pressure these models are showing. Instead, I think we should look at it more in the sense that overall pressures will be lower than normal in the NW Caribbean and GOM next week...which could spell trouble. The exact details will come later, for now we should just know that something might try to form in that general region within 7 days.

Folks over in the Western GOM are getting closer to the general time of year where troughiness blocks them from tropical threats. You've got about 4 weeks or so if we go with climatology (and that is a BIG if because stranger things have happened), then we will start focusing on threats in the eastern and central GOM.....

[Wx_Warrior]

It's like going to the horse races and placing a bet on every horse in the race! I'm going to win!

[Opal storm]

I don't really think we should be looking at the exact centers of the areas of low pressure these models are showing. Instead, I think we should look at it more in the sense that overall pressures will be lower than normal in the NW Caribbean and GOM next week...which could spell trouble. The exact details will come later, for now we should just know that something might try to form in that general region within 7 days.

Folks over in the Western GOM are getting closer to the general time of year where troughiness blocks them from tropical threats. You've got about 4 weeks or so if we go with climatology (and that is a BIG if because stranger things have happened), then we will start focusing on threats in the eastern and central GOM.....

I don't know, the moisture flow has really been over Texas so far this season. Right now with this ridge in place anything that does enter the Gulf (for the short term at least) will threaten Mexico/Texas.

[Normandy]

I don't really think we should be looking at the exact centers of the areas of low pressure these models are showing. Instead, I think we should look at it more in the sense that overall pressures will be lower than normal in the NW Caribbean and GOM next week...which could spell trouble. The exact details will come later, for now we should just know that something might try to form in that general region within 7 days.

Folks over in the Western GOM are getting closer to the general time of year where troughiness blocks them from tropical threats. You've got about 4 weeks or so if we go with climatology (and that is a BIG if because stranger things have happened), then we will start focusing on threats in the eastern and central GOM.....

Thats true, but really I don't know if you can use that same kind of thinking for the rest of this season. The SW LA, Upper Texas, and Central Texas coasts have been victim of troughiness and upper level disturbances the whole first half of summer (most of july, part of late june). I would hedge my bets on the pattern holding for a while (ridging with less troughiness a) a bit longer into the season (say sept 30) rather than the WGOM shutting down late august. IMO, a Rita or Allen like track into late mid-to-late is possible this year (of course given a storm forming).

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't really think we should be looking at the exact centers of the areas of low pressure these models are showing. Instead, I think we should look at it more in the sense that overall pressures will be lower than normal in the NW Caribbean and GOM next week...which could spell trouble. The exact details will come later, for now we should just know that something might try to form in that general region within 7 days.

Folks over in the Western GOM are getting closer to the general time of year where troughiness blocks them from tropical threats. You've got about 4 weeks or so if we go with climatology (and that is a BIG if because stranger things have happened), then we will start focusing on threats in the eastern GOM.....

4 weeks? Rita hit us in late September (which is closer to 6-7 weeks from now)...and Jerry in 1989 hit Texas in mid October (over 2 months from now). I am not going to let my guard down until at least mid October.

BTW: Most of Texas' worst storms have hit in September...Carla, Rita and The Galveston storm of 1900 all being examples.

However, I hope climatology does win out this year. It would be nice to stop having to worry in 4 weeks..but with this ridge looking to stick around over the eastern U.S., I am not sure if this year will follow climatology. Only time will tell..

[Derek Ortt]

the fact that the models are not developing the SAME FEATURE in consecutive runs means that it is likely bunk

[vaffie]

I think the main thing is not what exactly will form or where exactly it will form and go--because these are all 5+ day forecasts--hardly worth debating when there's nothing even to track yet. The main take-home message is that multiple models are showing that conditions in the northwest Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico are going to be conducive to tropical development. Whether that occurs near Jamaica, Nicaragua, the Yucatan, the Keys, or in the southern Gulf is a completely open question and will simply depend upon the vagaries of where the most convection and pressure-falls happen to occur over time--something very hard to predict and changable by the hour. It is definitely worth watching though.

[Sanibel]

If that wave north of Venezuela continues to deepen it could force something to the surface. Let's see what it does.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It's like going to the horse races and placing a bet on every horse in the race! I'm going to win!

Trust me as a horse racing fan you will lose everytime.

[Portastorm]

I don't really think we should be looking at the exact centers of the areas of low pressure these models are showing. Instead, I think we should look at it more in the sense that overall pressures will be lower than normal in the NW Caribbean and GOM next week...which could spell trouble. The exact details will come later, for now we should just know that something might try to form in that general region within 7 days.

Folks over in the Western GOM are getting closer to the general time of year where troughiness blocks them from tropical threats. You've got about 4 weeks or so if we go with climatology (and that is a BIG if because stranger things have happened), then we will start focusing on threats in the eastern and central GOM.....

Actually, it's more like a solid 6 weeks if we're going to use climatology. The first significant cold front that impacts south Texas usually happens around the first day of autumn (Sept. 20-22). Once that occurs, obviously reflecting that the westerlies have moved further south, the WGOM threat is significantly reduced.

Regardless, I find it humorous that we've used 9 pages on a threat that doesn't even exist right now! I guess it shows how eager folks are to actually follow something worth following in the tropics!

[Aric Dunn]

the fact that the models are not developing the SAME FEATURE in consecutive runs means that it is likely bunk

or simply that there is more than one feature and the models are not sure what to do with then .. which in reality there is more than one system. So i will not discount something possibly trying to get going over then 2- 3 days as i have said. and like extreme,vaffie and myself have been saying its not anyone particular area its a general Idea or an overall favorable environment, that should develop over the next few days

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm doing everything I can...I went thru Rita and dont NITA another...

[Wx_Warrior]

Destruc...

Big time racing fan/handicapper/owner here....I also write for BloodHorse magazine...I love the ponies!! Especially the 10-cent supers!

[Normandy]

If that wave north of Venezuela continues to deepen it could force something to the surface. Let's see what it does.

Ideally i'd agree with you because really thats probably the most faborable area as far as the upper air environment is concerned, but looking a visibles the lower level flow is screaming eastward much like the situation with 99L....gonna be hard for something to get going there.

But honestly, that area has just as good of a shot (which is hardly no shot imo) in the near term (2-3 days mind you) as the area Aric pointed out near Jamaica.

[astrosbaseball22]

if a storm gets kickin next week will be a week for texas and mexico to watch