Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[windstorm99]

From the 11:30am-NHC Outlook

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[tailgater]

There's a little circ./eddy moving west over the Isle of Youth, the ULL to the north @ Fla. straits is moving west also, so there will be lots of shear for a while if the circ. does hold together. This circ./eddy may be rotating around a larger broad low to the SW. Just a little something to watch closer to home.

[HouTXmetro]

Notice the NHC now says the sytem is moving NW into the Southern GOM. Yesterday they said what ever is out there should move over the Yucatan Penn. My guess is by staying over open water, that should help any development and increase the chance of a U.S. strike in the event something should get going.

[srainhoutx]

AFD's from TX Coastal areas are "hinting" at more northerly movemnet than earlier stated. Yet NHC/TPC motion was interesting considering past movement was WNW...

Brownsville
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Courpus Christi
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP

Houston Galveston
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[tailgater]

Does anybody know what the forecast is for the ULL over the SE GOM. Here's the latest 850mb vorticity.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4Z.GIF

[srainhoutx]

KEYW take on ULL from AFD this afternoon. Snipet...



000
FXUS62 KKEY 121931
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWEST 10-15MPH ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER FLORIDA BAY AND
UPPER KEYS. THE UPPER CYCLONE HAS NOW SHIFTED WEST OF THE KEYS..SO
CIRRUS IS NOW FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE AREA RATHER THAN
SOUTHWARD. AVAILABLE DATA STILL SUGGEST A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH/VORTICITY ZONE FROM BAHAMAS TO NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT BACKED AS PREDICTED BY THE GFS -- THE UKMET HAD
A BETTER DEPICTION.
Seems to be moving W.

[HouTXmetro]

Just a hunch, but I think we have something brewing off the southern cuban coast. 21N, 81W

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This system may very well develop and effect S. Texas.

[tailgater]

The question is, are the ULL and the Low level circ. near the Isle of Youth, moving west at the same speed.

[Portastorm]

Satellite presentation looks good again (just like yesterday at this time) but nothing really to get excited about in terms of vorticity. Plenty of moisture around, that's for sure!

Like others have said in this thread ... this one's a slow cooker.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Hard to see a Low Level Center.

[srainhoutx]

Good radar view from Southern Cuba...

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

a little old though

[tailgater]

Thanks srain, I was looking for that site

[srainhoutx]

Thanks srain, I was looking for that site

no problem. one of my old stand bys

[lrak]

with that radar and the daylight satellite loop a swirl looks to be forming real close to the S/E ULLs periphery? Another illusion I suppose.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[teal61]

Yep Houtx, there does seem to be something going on just west of the Isle of Youth. Interesting

[tailgater]

Hello

There's a little circ./eddy moving west over the Isle of Youth, the ULL to the north @ Fla. straits is moving west also, so there will be lots of shear for a while if the circ. does hold together. This circ./eddy may be rotating around a larger broad low to the SW. Just a little something to watch closer to home.

Does anybody know what the forecast is for the ULL over the SE GOM. Here's the latest 850mb vorticity.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4Z.GIF

[Nimbus]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

[ronjon]

18z GFS now develops a 1008 mb low in the western GOM.

[robbielyn]

I am interested in 82W and 17.5N.