Global Models for 90L

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ronjon
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#161 Postby ronjon » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:48 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Joe Bastardi just posted on his pay per view site and wonders if GFS hasn't been tweaked to correct previous right bias. He suspects 90L/Dean is further North than GFS, and probably recurves near Longitude of Florida. He says storm likely intense at closest approach/landfall to US, and while he hasn't picked a landfall location, suggested the hundred year solution that hits North Florida or Georgia from the SSE.


Well the GFS right-hand bias correction is interesting. I haven't heard about that one - perhaps some PRO METs might want to chime in on that one. I did agree with KFDM MET that this cyclone seemed to past by at least two troughs in the 12Z GFS run without the even slightest pull northward. Unusual for a strong cyclone to me.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#162 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:49 pm

the 12Z Euro loses the system
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#163 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:50 pm

Wake up and still need some SANE pills to help fix this mess!

JB loves the Euro, i do know that!
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#164 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:51 pm

It does seem unusal. Now there were some tweaks to the GFS last year that was supposed to make it a better Tropical model. We'll see what the new EURO shows.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#165 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:52 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:the 12Z Euro loses the system



Link?
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#166 Postby Pearl River » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:53 pm

JB states that the GFS has a Cleo like system in 64 as far as Caribbean while Euro has a Dora like 1 in 400 year storm on the north coast of Florida in 64. He was not talking about 90L being like Dora, he was mentioning the second wave following 90L.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#167 Postby windstorm99 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:54 pm

I have not seen the the 12z come out yet?
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#168 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:54 pm

12z ECMWF initializes it too weak (1009.5mb) and with the surface low substantially displaced from the mid-level low to its SW ... (wonder if the mid-level low is what the UKMET is initilizing on?)

24 hours it's weakened considerably and the mid-level low is gone

pictures soon.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#169 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:55 pm

Last edited by canetracker on Sun Aug 12, 2007 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#170 Postby clfenwi » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:56 pm

ronjon wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Joe Bastardi just posted on his pay per view site and wonders if GFS hasn't been tweaked to correct previous right bias. He suspects 90L/Dean is further North than GFS, and probably recurves near Longitude of Florida. He says storm likely intense at closest approach/landfall to US, and while he hasn't picked a landfall location, suggested the hundred year solution that hits North Florida or Georgia from the SSE.


Well the GFS right-hand bias correction is interesting. I haven't heard about that one - perhaps some PRO METs might want to chime in on that one. I did agree with KFDM MET that this cyclone seemed to past by at least two troughs in the 12Z GFS run without the even slightest pull northward. Unusual for a strong cyclone to me.


At points in the past the GFS had been extremely notorious for underestimating the extent and persistence of high pressure rides. One prominent example of this was its forecasts for Ivan, where it just kept on wanting to recurve it way to soon. First it had it going up the east coast of Florida, a day or so later it would forecast for it to go up the peninsula, later on the big bend, etc.

That was the reason why when the GFS was the first to forecast Ernesto to go north to Florida (while everything else was forecasting it to get into the Gulf of Mexico), everyone familiar with this bias reacted the same way and completely discounted that forecast.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#171 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:56 pm

Pearl River wrote:JB states that the GFS has a Cleo like system in 64 as far as Caribbean while Euro has a Dora like 1 in 400 year storm on the north coast of Florida in 64. He was not talking about 90L being like Dora, he was mentioning the second wave following 90L.


Possible I read it wrong, also enjoying a Bud and Watkisn Glen road race...
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#172 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:57 pm

12z ECMWF initial:

Image


24 hours:

Image
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#173 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:58 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Pearl River wrote:JB states that the GFS has a Cleo like system in 64 as far as Caribbean while Euro has a Dora like 1 in 400 year storm on the north coast of Florida in 64. He was not talking about 90L being like Dora, he was mentioning the second wave following 90L.


Possible I read it wrong, also enjoying a Bud and Watkisn Glen road race...


Your not the only one, go Jeff G!
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#174 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:58 pm

Well if the EURO completely loses it that would be really really interesting. What that means is the system really never gets developed or stays weak. Don't think that will happen BUT this system will need to slow down some to gain strength.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#175 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 12, 2007 2:04 pm

12z ECMWF 48 hours:

Image


No sign of a surface low at 3 days either ... I'm not going to bother posting images unless it regenerates later in the run.
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#176 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 12, 2007 2:04 pm

if it slows, that will only increase the easterly shear and the thing will probably dissipate before it gets going.

I believe it needs to accelerate significantly to decrease the relative shear
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#177 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 2:05 pm

x-y-no wrote:12z ECMWF 48 hours:

Image


Amazing the EURO doesn't even have it.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO loses system

#178 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 2:07 pm

12 EURO 72 hours

Image
Image
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z EURO starts at 3:30 PM EDT

#179 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 12, 2007 2:07 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
x-y-no wrote:12z ECMWF 48 hours:

Image


Amazing the EURO doesn't even have it.


If you look at the current sat pix than its possible the euro could be right
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#180 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 12, 2007 2:08 pm

Time to belly up at the bar! Long ride....
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