With a 90% reduction it's 140 MPH
The formula is (Windspeed in kts * .9) * 1.15 = windspeed in MPH
Depending on the altitude of the aircraft the reduction changes but for most AF flights it will be .9.
Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
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mf_dolphin
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miamicanes177
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
I thought it should be 140mph too, however the NHC has upped the winds to 145mph. They must have more data than we do.mf_dolphin wrote:With a 90% reduction it's 140 MPH
The formula is (Windspeed in kts * .9) * 1.15 = windspeed in MPH
Depending on the altitude of the aircraft the reduction changes but for most AF flights it will be .9.
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JtSmarts
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
After 2006 I had forgotten what it was like to see a hurricane just bomb out. 
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wxmann_91
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
miamicanes177 wrote:I thought it should be 140mph too, however the NHC has upped the winds to 145mph. They must have more data than we do.mf_dolphin wrote:With a 90% reduction it's 140 MPH
The formula is (Windspeed in kts * .9) * 1.15 = windspeed in MPH
Depending on the altitude of the aircraft the reduction changes but for most AF flights it will be .9.
I think this is their logic:
1) Winds were in NE Quad. Strongest quad in this case is NW.
2) New burst of strong, deep convection in NW Quad might be bringing stronger gusts down to the sfc.
3) Strong pressure gradient b/t High to north and Dean.
Personally I believe it might be 130 kt now, especially w/ the new burst of convection seen from JUA 248nm BR.
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mf_dolphin
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
The 145 came from the 138kt VDM.
(138 * .9 * 1.15) = 142.83 MPH (rounded up to 145
(138 * .9 * 1.15) = 142.83 MPH (rounded up to 145
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craptacular
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:Um...strongest winds are in the NE quadrand
If Dean was moving north, sure, but it is moving west, making the NW quad the forward-right quad.
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timeflow
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
Well then it has a ways to go before it can be crowned a Cat 5... it's got something like a 16 mile wide eye, looks small but I suppose that is average. It looked a bit like a "dreaded pinhole" in the full Atlantic WV, which tricked my eyes at first. The winds may have not caught up to the pressure though, perhaps 145 MPH is not out of the question. Charley was around 941 MB with 145 MPH at the surface in short order. It was far more compact though.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
It appears that RECON continues to fly in and around Dean... How late will they be flying tonight?
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
Swimdude wrote:Wow... Late into the night. Thanks!
They are usually in the system 6-7 hours.
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vacanechaser
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Re: Re:
craptacular wrote:RL3AO wrote:Um...strongest winds are in the NE quadrand
If Dean was moving north, sure, but it is moving west, making the NW quad the forward-right quad.
in general terms that is correct... in this case, the strongest winds were found in the NE quad...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
RL3AO wrote:Swimdude wrote:Wow... Late into the night. Thanks!
They are usually in the system 6-7 hours.
this mission was planned for 6+00 means.... roughly 6 hours. So RL3AO, you are correct.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
Swimdude wrote:Wow... Late into the night. Thanks!
that's average.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion
timeflow wrote:I'm watching the plotted progress on Google Earth, under the Blue Marble and Global Cloud maps, what an incredible awesome thing it is that we have all this technology that puts all of us right there in the action, in near real time. I remember shadowing at the Westchester County Airport back in 1985 in 8th grade. Just getting a good radar print outs was exceptional at the time... and connection somewhat costly. It's hard to ever take Google Earth and this Forum for granted, all of this is just so incredibly cool. Particularly the memories of '05 when Wilma bombed overnight, and many of us were up watching the recon reports come in, jaws dropping. As for Dean reminds me most of Ivan (of course), the growing epic satellite presentation, size and depth. Ivan formed way out around 10 degrees north there abouts.
Anyhow, I was going to ask, when is the plane going to turn around?...then I just looked back at GE and see they are heading in for a stab at the NE eyewall... here we go!
that's how we show the public WHAT track we actually take. Its called an Alpha pattern (it looks like a giant X)...
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