Area of convection (Former 92L)

[sfwx]

Is this an invest again? Floater #3 says "Invest".

Eric

[cpdaman]

ON second thought!

it appears the turning over abaco is in the mid levels maybe a MLC and that the real low is nw of san salvador

it is where the general broad turning is occuring just NW of 25/75 (25.5 75.1) this would reach s.fl probably late tonite a la 2-3 am. moisture (clouds/showers) appear to be streaming in from the SE toward the center)

on a side note this thing could slide just south of miami tonite and thru the florida keys/straits (while any mlc) goes thru jupiter i'm gonna watch this area for a flare up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

if this storm pops a depression it would be like the ref in a wrestling match doing that long exaggereated (count) one...two....and as he is about to say three, 92L throws his hand up and says, not so fast

[wxman57]

Trof axis is weakening. Pressures in the convection area are up to 1017-1018mb. There's no hint of an LLC, just a wave interacting with an upper low.

I suggest looking down in the SW Caribbean if you're looking for something that might have a chance of devleoping.

[cpdaman]

cmon we (me especially) were starting to get excited

well ......... it is an invest again

[gatorcane]

Trof axis is weakening. Pressures in the convection area are up to 1017-1018mb. There's no hint of an LLC, just a wave interacting with an upper low.

I suggest looking down in the SW Caribbean if you're looking for something that might have a chance of devleoping.

shhhh don't say anything...there was some model that developed something there and moved it north over the FL straits...

do we even have a topic on the SW Caribbean?

[wxman57]

cmon we (me especially) were starting to get excited

well ......... it is an invest again

No, there's no invest.

[vaffie]

Anyway, let's just see what tomorrow brings. Not a whole lot is happening, and there's hardly any model guidance on what will happen. A low could form here or in the SW Caribbean or both. Both areas are showing a lot of vorticity, so we're not imagining cloud rotation--it is there--just not too significant right now. In three days, the Gulf may be very interesting, I think. By then, the models might actually have something to latch on to instead of this diffuse mess.

[wxman57]

Anyway, let's just see what tomorrow brings. Not a whole lot is happening, and there's hardly any model guidance on what will happen. A low could form here or in the SW Caribbean or both. Both areas are showing a lot of vorticity, so we're not imagining cloud rotation--it is there--just not too significant right now. In three days, the Gulf may be very interesting, I think. By then, the models might actually have something to latch on to instead of this diffuse mess.

I'm not saying that anyone is imagining a circulation, just that you're seeing a giant upper-level low spinning from the Bahamas to the SW Caribbean. Conditions are hostile for development around the upper low, but it will tend to enhance convection to its east. As long as the upper-level winds remain strong around the low, development won't occur.

[hiflyer]

please? North of the lake??? pretty please????

That report of no measurable rain at MCO airport for 20 days just shows how bad it is for the Lake O watershed....

Current radar shows that the first portion of this blob that went SW towards Cuba and started blooming is now thinning out but storms are forming on the N Cuban coast. Second portion not flwng in footsteps but going almost due west...EYW radar showing that a cluster of storms coming off the SW FL coast now blooming once they hit the gulf....

if this thing ever does anything it will obviously be in the GOM...may be fun to watch tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a Clear Low level Circulation on satellite
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html
and its not the upper low


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 30N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS SHOWED UP WELL IN RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THAT THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL
TURNING IS JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
71W-78W. BAHAMAS METAR DATA TO THE S OF THIS TURNING ARE STILL
SHOWING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS...SO AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THERE IS
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE A BIT LESS CONCENTRATED THAN THEY
WERE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NOW EXTEND NE FROM WRN CUBA ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLC FOR A FEW HUNDRED NM. THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO PERSISTED WITH THE CARIBBEAN
PORTION OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 73W-77W. THIS SRN BRANCH OF THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE/SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.


and although there may not a closed low yet or not all the way to the surface it is still very much noticeable in satellite


also since the apparent low level circ is not moving very much the upper low may start to slip past it to the west and would possibly bring and improved environment

[alienstorm]

The broad LLC at 25.5N 75.5W has been nearly stationary for the past few hours. Convection is starting to form to the North and Northwest of it as well as the ULL moves on by it is drawing moisture from the Southeast into it. If this continues to move slowly than we may have a different scenario on our hand. If the Upper Level winds become more favorable and it is able to tap some moisture from the carribean (southern end) then we may have a player.

Comments are welcome.

[Aric Dunn]

The broad LLC at 25.5N 75.5W has been nearly stationary for the past few hours. Convection is starting to form to the North and Northwest of it as well as the ULL moves on by it is drawing moisture from the Southeast into it. If this continues to move slowly than we may have a different scenario on our hand. If the Upper Level winds become more favorable and it is able to tap some moisture from the carribean (southern end) then we may have a player.

Comments are welcome.

yeah sorry this is what I wrote in the other thread since I did not see this thread

"just checked some obs from the bahamas but could not find any real sw or west winds.

upper environment would get better if the surface circ stayed in place and allowed the upper to move west .. but chances are still low for anything to form from the old invest ... but its still there so I will keep my eye on it"

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 222114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DEAN...CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES WEST OF
POZA RICA MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WWWW

[Aric Dunn]

A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 29N
MOVING W AT A BRISK 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THAT
THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL TURNING IS JUST E OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER NOTED NEAR 25N76W.
BAHAMAS METAR DATA TO THE S OF THIS TURNING STILL INDICATE LIGHT
NE WINDS...THUS THE FEATURE DOES NOT APPEARS TO BE CLOSED AT THE
SURFACE AT THIS TIME. THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RATHER SPARSE AND NOT ORGANIZED AND NOW
EXTEND NWD FROM ERN CUBA ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE WAVE IS
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER WITH THE CARIBBEAN
PORTION OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 73W-77W HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED.
THIS SRN BRANCH OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN OVER THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

[fci]

Well, high and dry here in Palm Beach County.
A few showers today, nice dark clouds and virtually no rain.

Sure was hope that we would get some lawn-soakers and Lake-O fillers.

Hope is somehow this could find a way to get us West or Southwest winds aloft to get the afternoon sea breeze storms brewing and moving east. How about a frontal trough?????

Or a new Invest?
Or even a TD???

[vaffie]

Sure was hope that we would get some lawn-soakers and Lake-O fillers.

The models appear to be indicating that rain and convection will increase throughout the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean over the next couple weeks, so you guys may get some needed rain.

[HURAKAN]

Nothing much yet. Lets see what DMAX does to this system.

[fci]

Sure was hope that we would get some lawn-soakers and Lake-O fillers.

The models appear to be indicating that rain and convection will increase throughout the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean over the next couple weeks, so you guys may get some needed rain.

Unless the rain and convection run against the prevailing East to West wind flow; the GOM and Western Carib don't help our drought situation.

[kranki]

All that I can say is, 'What a let down!'. I was expecting much more, maybe 2"-4" of rain. Nothing! Well, ok, about 1/4"! After hearing the report of cyclonic rotation, I, too, looked at the infared and vapor loops looking for it, but never quite saw it. I am disappointed. We can take all the rain that you send us. We like some to go to Homestead too! They supply us with water. It is also nice when Lake O gets water, but maybe not Miami (they tend to flood). Anyway, it is very disappointing.

[tgenius]

There has been NOTHING in rain so far from this thing... Grrr I thought it would rain today!