2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[cycloneye]

Good summary here.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507252294844847




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507254014533691




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507255465849218

[Category5Kaiju]

Good summary here.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507252294844847

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507254014533691

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507255465849218

This is a great example of why homebrew systems that pop up near land are arguably scarier than powerful MDR systems.

[LarryWx]

Good summary here.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507252294844847

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507254014533691

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1703507255465849218

Exactly what I’ve said. Whereas ACE has been far above average for a solid El Niño, the tracks have been very Ninoish with a mere one TC moving W or WNW W of 74 W.

[Category5Kaiju]

With the 2 new AOIs, there is a decent chance that the Atlantic reaches 17 nameable storms by the end of this month. In fact, we are currently ahead of the WPAC and EPAC named storm-wise. This is quite an impressive feat.

[WalterWhite]

With the 2 new AOIs, there is a decent chance that the Atlantic reaches 17 nameable storms by the end of this month. In fact, we are currently ahead of the WPAC and EPAC named storm-wise. This is quite an impressive feat.

17 nameable storms by the end of this month is not particularly impressive, though. That would mean that September produced only 6 storms, which is below the average for these past few seasons. 2018 and 2019 produced 7, 2020 produced 10, 2021 produced 9, and 2022 produced 6. That is an average of 8 storms in September.

[Category5Kaiju]

With the 2 new AOIs, there is a decent chance that the Atlantic reaches 17 nameable storms by the end of this month. In fact, we are currently ahead of the WPAC and EPAC named storm-wise. This is quite an impressive feat.

17 nameable storms by the end of this month is not particularly impressive, though. That would mean that September produced only 6 storms, which is below the average for these past few seasons. 2018 and 2019 produced 7, 2020 produced 10, 2021 produced 9, and 2022 produced 6. That is an average of 8 storms in September.

August tells quite a different story though. And the other years where the Atlantic beat the WPAC and EPAC in NS count: 2005, 2010, and 2020. 2021 for a bit also had the Atlantic leading.

[Teban54]

I'm not sure why people are already downcasting on September 19, tbh.

[ElectricStorm]

In what world is 17 NS by the end of September not impressive? Average for the entire season is 14 so getting to 17 by Oct 1 especially during an El Niño year is pretty dang good

[CyclonicFury]

With the 2 new AOIs, there is a decent chance that the Atlantic reaches 17 nameable storms by the end of this month. In fact, we are currently ahead of the WPAC and EPAC named storm-wise. This is quite an impressive feat.

17 nameable storms by the end of this month is not particularly impressive, though. That would mean that September produced only 6 storms, which is below the average for these past few seasons. 2018 and 2019 produced 7, 2020 produced 10, 2021 produced 9, and 2022 produced 6. That is an average of 8 storms in September.

The past few seasons is not enough time to take an average. 2020 was the exception, not the norm. The long term average for September is closer to 4-5 storms. ACE is a better metric for evaluating activity than named storms. For instance, 2007 had 8 storms in September with well below average ACE while 2017 had only 4 storms and the highest ACE on record for the month.

[psyclone]

Maybe it's too soon to ask but for the Gulf and Caribbean regions... Are we done? It's been quiet in those areas and while this year has been crazy active...it's time to wonder if the late season Nino shutdown may actually still happen.

[WalterWhite]

Maybe it's too soon to ask but for the Gulf and Caribbean regions... Are we done? It's been quiet in those areas and while this year has been crazy active...it's time to wonder if the late season Nino shutdown may actually still happen.

Not necessarily. You can still get major hurricanes in the Western Atlantic in October and November during El Niño years. Hurricane Michael (2018) is a perfect example of that.

[Woofde]

With the 2 new AOIs, there is a decent chance that the Atlantic reaches 17 nameable storms by the end of this month. In fact, we are currently ahead of the WPAC and EPAC named storm-wise. This is quite an impressive feat.

17 nameable storms by the end of this month is not particularly impressive, though. That would mean that September produced only 6 storms, which is below the average for these past few seasons. 2018 and 2019 produced 7, 2020 produced 10, 2021 produced 9, and 2022 produced 6. That is an average of 8 storms in September.

The past few seasons is not enough time to take an average. 2020 was the exception, not the norm. The long term average for September is closer to 4-5 storms. ACE is a better metric for evaluating activity than named storms. For instance, 2007 had 8 storms in September with well below average ACE while 2017 had only 4 storms and the highest ACE on record for the month.

You can tell expectations have been changed a lot. We've been on a hot streak since 2016 with above average seasons and highly impactful storms. People seem to act like that's the norm now. So far this season, we already have had a major impact the US, above normal ACE and storms. In the past during an El nino year that would've been described as insanity. El ninos usually average 76 ACE, with Nigel we are headed towards 115 already, and that's not counting what happens in October and November.

[IcyTundra]

Maybe it's too soon to ask but for the Gulf and Caribbean regions... Are we done? It's been quiet in those areas and while this year has been crazy active...it's time to wonder if the late season Nino shutdown may actually still happen.

Depends what part of the gulf you’re at. The further east you are the higher chance of a hurricane strike in October. It is very rare for places like Texas to get hit in October for example.

[chaser1]

Maybe it's too soon to ask but for the Gulf and Caribbean regions... Are we done? It's been quiet in those areas and while this year has been crazy active...it's time to wonder if the late season Nino shutdown may actually still happen.

Shushhhh, don't let the tropics even hear you. As far as i'm concerned, i'm on Cold Front watch (fine but, i'll take slightly milder and lower dp for now)!

[Ianswfl]

Maybe it's too soon to ask but for the Gulf and Caribbean regions... Are we done? It's been quiet in those areas and while this year has been crazy active...it's time to wonder if the late season Nino shutdown may actually still happen.

Shushhhh, don't let the tropics even hear you. As far as i'm concerned, i'm on Cold Front watch (fine but, i'll take slightly milder and lower dp for now)!

Gfs ensembles say otherwise

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704146760510181394

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704146760510181394?t=vC-Dc12-X0HvpWvZ8V7zYA&s=19

I don't know what I'm looking at.

[ThunderForce]

Here's the current Global Tropics Outlook from the CPC.

Oddly, they dropped the >20% formation chance for tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean and Gulf in Week 2 from the last outlook (it was Week 3 there).

[Ianswfl]

Here's the current Global Tropics Outlook from the CPC.
https://i.imgur.com/gENGSzp.png
Oddly, they dropped the >20% formation chance for tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean and Gulf in Week 2 from the last outlook (it was Week 3 there).

With that map they still think it's mid September! The gefs is hinting at western Atlantic action at the end of sept into oct

[Woofde]

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704146760510181394?t=vC-Dc12-X0HvpWvZ8V7zYA&s=19

I don't know what I'm looking at.

It's showing rising motion in the Atlantic and America's starting in October. Generally that would be favorable and not El ninoish. It seems pretty reasonable considering the absolute warmth of the Atlantic right now. The basin has finally started cooling (In large part thanks to all the Hurricanes taking a chunk out), but we are crazily enough currently still warmer than any other season's peak warmth.