2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Woofde]

June and July are just not active months. We are still miles ahead of climatology. The angst is understandable given the hype, but the reality is still that even one long tracker major hurricane in this period is extremely unusual. When the MJO returns things will switch back on again.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

[weeniepatrol]

These charts visualize things better than sentences ever could:






EPAC ACE to date is so low that we could increase it by a factor of 158, and it would STILL be below climatology.

In contrast, Atlantic ACE to date is 5.3x above climatology. We could have zero hurricanes and zero tropical storms through 30 August and the Atlantic would STILL be above-average.

Also, current Atlantic ACE is literally 150x higher than current EPAC ACE. Name the last time this has occurred in late July. You can't.

[chaser1]

It's SAL. It's vertical shear. It's dry mid-levels. Aww Hell, it's July. That's why I'm not overly concerned about that convective tropical wave way out in the east Atlantic. No way do I see much chance of it threatening the Lessor Antilles as anything greater then a Cat 3

[Teban54]

These charts visualize things better than sentences ever could:

https://i.imgur.com/EZVaf7e.png


https://i.imgur.com/115kNAp.png

EPAC ACE to date is so low that we could increase it by a factor of 158, and it would STILL be below climatology.

In contrast, Atlantic ACE to date is 5.3x above climatology. We could have zero hurricanes and zero tropical storms through 30 August and the Atlantic would STILL be above-average.

Also, current Atlantic ACE is literally 150x higher than current EPAC ACE. Name the last time this has occurred in late July. You can't.

Oh no, the Atlantic ACE is no longer record high for year-to-date! Season cancel!

[NotSparta]

These charts visualize things better than sentences ever could:

https://i.imgur.com/EZVaf7e.png


https://i.imgur.com/115kNAp.png

EPAC ACE to date is so low that we could increase it by a factor of 158, and it would STILL be below climatology.

In contrast, Atlantic ACE to date is 5.3x above climatology. We could have zero hurricanes and zero tropical storms through 30 August and the Atlantic would STILL be above-average.

Also, current Atlantic ACE is literally 150x higher than current EPAC ACE. Name the last time this has occurred in late July. You can't.

The EPAC stats are kinda nutty. It's actually only at ~4% of the next lowest value for this day of the year. Not a whole lot on the way too it seems

[weeniepatrol]

Oh no, the Atlantic ACE is no longer record high for year-to-date! Season cancel!

Truly, my waves have been broken

[cycloneye]

The NATL is ready to rumble.

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1815713879030366296

[Cyclenall]

The dearth of activity in the Epac is more extreme than the high ACE in the ATL ytd, but the dataset for the Epac is nowhere near what we have for ATL. Compared to recent climo of 50+ years its unique but from a record perspective its hard to gauge.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like some long-range models are starting to perk up in activity early next month near the Florida vicinity.

Just remember guys. Alarm-clock effect.

[toad strangler]

Michael Lowry Update: This could go in the EPAC thread as well but here goes! Pretty sure most of us here have been thinking about the Atlantic possibly taking the brunt of activity due to the dearth of systems in the Pacific and elsewhere really.

What a No-Show Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Could Signal for the Atlantic
The eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to its slowest start on record, which could be a telling sign for what’s ahead in the Atlantic
MICHAEL LOWRY
JUL 2

Tuesday morning enhanced satellite showing a few disturbances dotting the waters of the eastern North Pacific. Credit: NOAA.
There’s a sort of feng shui about the tropics: everything has its place. And like the ancient Chinese practice, one of the guiding principles of the tropics is a yin/yang balance to global hurricane activity. It’s why globally the number of named storms averages around 80 to 90 each year without much variation. It’s also why when the Atlantic is chock full of hurricane activity, the eastern Pacific is usually out to lunch (or vice versa).

Tropical activity to date (as measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE) for the North Atlantic. So far the Atlantic has observed its 3rd most active start to a hurricane season on record. Credit: Deelan Jariwala/cyclonicwx.com. So perhaps it’s no surprise that this year, while the Atlantic has notched its 3rd most active start in modern recordkeeping (since the since the mid 1960s), the eastern Pacific is off to its slowest start in the reliable records (since 1971) – and by a remarkably wide margin.

Tropical activity to date (as measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE) for the eastern North Pacific. So far the east Pacific has observed its least active start to a hurricane season – by a wide margin – in the reliable record books (since 1971). Credit: Deelan Jariwala/cyclonicwx.com. The eastern North Pacific is typically a fast-starter compared to the Atlantic, with activity ticking up in earnest by the second week of July. By the end of July, the eastern Pacific is usually through 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and at least one Category 3 or stronger hurricane. So far, the basin’s managed to eke out only 1 named storm – Aletta at the beginning of the month – that peaked with 40 mph winds and lasted as a named storm for less than 12 hours. That’s it. Eastern Pacific tropical activity is less than 1% of normal through July 22nd.

In a balanced tropical world, something’s seriously off kilter. Or is it? Even when the going’s good, the harvest is scarce. If ever there was a point in the eastern Pacific hurricane season for storm activity, it should be now. To be fair, it’s been trying with several suspect areas identified by the National Hurricane Center this morning. But the 7-day odds for development remain paltry and if recent history is any indication, these areas to watch may vanish just as quickly as they appeared.

The reality for this hurricane season out west (of Mexico) is that the atmosphere isn’t getting any more conducive for development. As we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, La Niña is quickly setting in and that means an environment unfriendly to the formation of eastern Pacific hurricanes. The eastern Pacific has never gone an entire hurricane season without a hurricane, and even in the most muted seasons, we’ve seen a handful of hurricanes. So we’ll see hurricanes there this year, but they’ll be much harder to come by.

Why a dead Pacific is a bad omen for the Atlantic
The feng shui of the tropics spells trouble when there’s an imbalance in hurricane activity. Studies show that while globally the number of named storms hasn’t changed significantly over the past 30 years, some individual basins do show a change, but the change is offset by other basins.

For example, the western North Pacific, on average the most active tropical basin in the world, has observed a significant decline in named storms since the early 1990s, but the north Atlantic has seen a significant increasing trend (unrelated to technological improvements).

Like the long-term trends, when one basin goes down, another must goes up. Every other global tropical ocean basin besides the North Atlantic is running a big deficit so far this season, including the normally busy western Pacific. With such a shortfall, something has to give and the tropics will undoubtedly make up for lost time to get us to the 80 to 90 named storms we should expect by December.

The question is which basin lights up when. Unfortunately for us, it looks like the Atlantic will be the one to pick up the slack left behind by the Pacific this year.

[AnnularCane]

He's kidding about 80 to 90 named storms, right?

[chaser1]

Just a couple of observations. The far east Atlantic is displaying a couple of "discreet" concentrations of convection that stand out if for no other reason than perhaps being isolated from any coherent and broad ITCZ. Looking at the 850mb charts, there clearly appears to be a sharp delineation in terms of precipitable water between the dryer conditions north of 10N, and the anomalously higher conditions south of 10N. It seems that there is a low level monsoonal low that extends southwestward from Africa and this appears to be in part the catalyst for the rich southwesterly low-level flow aiding in these convective features. This monsoonal feature looks to become less stretched out as a broad trough and itself move west into the E. Atlantic as a somewhat more coherent weak low to mid level feature in about 2-3 days. I don't have any misgivings regarding the current dryer air north of 10N and it's likely inhibiting development especially for a large monsoonal type storm to form. What I do think is quite possible is for a TD to develop from some smaller area of vorticity on the south (or southwest) side of this broader weak monsoonal low. The broader area surface pressures will have dropped a bit, I think there will be a further enhancement of low level moisture pulling up from the West to the south, and this season has proven to have a penchant for low latitude development when adequate low level convergence exists. Despite no model support, I'd keep an eye out between the 26th -28th for a possible quick development out there.

[ScottNAtlanta]

These charts visualize things better than sentences ever could:

https://i.imgur.com/EZVaf7e.png


https://i.imgur.com/115kNAp.png

EPAC ACE to date is so low that we could increase it by a factor of 158, and it would STILL be below climatology.

In contrast, Atlantic ACE to date is 5.3x above climatology. We could have zero hurricanes and zero tropical storms through 30 August and the Atlantic would STILL be above-average.

Also, current Atlantic ACE is literally 150x higher than current EPAC ACE. Name the last time this has occurred in late July. You can't.

Oh no, the Atlantic ACE is no longer record high for year-to-date! Season cancel!

Please proceed to E. Pacific thread where they are taking all season cancel posts

[ScottNAtlanta]

Dust in the Wind
All we are is dust in the wind



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=tH2w6Oxx0kQ

[toad strangler]

He's kidding about 80 to 90 named storms, right?

Globally as he stated? Nah

[chaser1]

Dust in the Wind
All we are is dust in the wind

https://youtu.be/tH2w6Oxx0kQ?si=2wr1I9kGxxdkObh5

Wins the award for "Classic Post of the Week"

[chaser1]

He's kidding about 80 to 90 named storms, right?

Globally as he stated? Nah

Well, ya gotta figure that the WPAC will get their 10 or so. I'd cap the Atlantic at around 60 or so. I mean you have to leave a few for the other basins

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1815897304873779252

[aspen]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1815897304873779252

I’ve noticed that the expected date for the Atlantic’s return to activity has kept getting pushed back. First it was late July, then early August, now mid-late August (around the typical bell ringing time). Seems like we’re going to end up with another long early season drought despite Beryl’s existence and a more favorable SSTA/ENSO setup than 2021, 2022, or 2023. Another tweet mentioned how Africa’s unusually high temps this summer are fueling more SAL than normal, likely helping to keep this drought going.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1815897304873779252

I’ve noticed that the expected date for the Atlantic’s return to activity has kept getting pushed back. First it was late July, then early August, now mid-late August (around the typical bell ringing time). Seems like we’re going to end up with another long early season drought despite Beryl’s existence and a more favorable SSTA/ENSO setup than 2021, 2022, or 2023. Another tweet mentioned how Africa’s unusually high temps this summer are fueling more SAL than normal, likely helping to keep this drought going.

Latest ECMWF ensembles beg to differ; pattern flips and models being slow to catch on until the mid range can do wonders