TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

N/m

[gkrangers]

it is NOT going at 290....take a look at satellite folks , as that is what really is going on

There is a northern component to the movement, thats obvious. How much, not sure. But it IS gaining lattitude.

[Ivanhater]

it is NOT going at 290....take a look at satellite folks , as that is what really is going on

There is a northern component to the movement, thats obvious. How much, not sure. But it IS gaining lattitude.

i agree its not going due west, but i dont think its going wnw or even close to 290...no way

[sma10]

Pretty big shift to the right.

Also note that Irene is still designated as Depression.

At this point you really have to wonder if the threat to Florida hasn't diminished significantly.

It was never all that big to begin with, not certain how the idea that it was took hold so strongly here.

Yes, you have to wonder about that

[Thunder44]

Pretty big shift to the right.

Also note that Irene is still designated as Depression.

At this point you really have to wonder if the threat to Florida hasn't diminished significantly.

It was never all that big to begin with, not certain how the idea that it was took hold so strongly here.

because it has trended left of the guidance the whole time so people expect it to keep going left and be a threat to florida

We got too many Floridians here who want a storm or live in constant fear that a storm is somehow coming towards them.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One thing is for sure intill a few hours ago it was a very broad LLC. Hard to pine down. So we will need a few more hours.

[Derek Ortt]

quikscat still shows an open wave. Maybe this is why it is not being upgraded

[WindRunner]

Could someone at least tell me where the Dvorak numbers come from?

[Derecho]

290 isn't all that amazingly N of due W..only 20 degrees; but it matters a lot in the long term.

Looks perfectly reasonable to me based on satellite.

[cycloneye]

Could someone at least tell me where the Dvorak numbers come from?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[CronkPSU]

Pretty big shift to the right.

Also note that Irene is still designated as Depression.

At this point you really have to wonder if the threat to Florida hasn't diminished significantly.

It was never all that big to begin with, not certain how the idea that it was took hold so strongly here.

because it has trended left of the guidance the whole time so people expect it to keep going left and be a threat to florida

We got too many Floridians here who want a storm or live in constant fear that a storm is somehow coming towards them.

well if you lived on a big friggin penisula with storms able to come at you from almost any angle, you maybe a bit gunshy too

[Derecho]

There are three agencies that officially put out Dvorak estimates.

SSD does; they have T 2.5 at 0Z:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

AFWA (Air Force) does, they also have T 2.5 at 0Z:

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/TPNT/KGWC.TXT

The computerized AODT technique is bad for weak storms, but it has T 3.6 according to AFWA as well.

The last agency is TAFB which is part of the TPC; their Dvoraks aren't public, but they will be mentioned in NHC discussions from time to time.

[Ivanhater]

dont look at the clouds, look at the turning where the center is and tell me its going 290

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gkrangers]

quikscat still shows an open wave. Maybe this is why it is not being upgraded

I haven't been able to find a recent pass over the center. I'm assuming you have more sources for it than FNMOC ?

[deltadog03]

i tell you what...if you live in FL...and you think your threat is pretty much gone cuz of this model run...well...thats all i can say

[Derek Ortt]

just go to the site on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml at the bottom of the page and click on hi res

they have the latest pass there and Tropical Wave Irene remains wide open

[InimanaChoogamaga]

The N component of motion is significant. People need to give up on the idea that it's moving due W.

Give it up people. People probably see a Westward trend because it has moved 8.1W but only managed to get .4N since 10AM on 10-8-05.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... nates.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would think that we are in range for recon. If they have to spend all there money yet. I would not 100 percent trust quickscats after they did not show a closed LLC for Charley,Emily.

[sma10]

dont look at the clouds, look at the turning where the center is and tell me its going 290

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Maybe its 280 or 285 or 290. The fact is that it's not 270 and any increase in latitude is significant at this point.

Personally, I'll go with NHC on this because it does look WNW to me.

[storms in NC]

Okay everyone take a DEEP BREAH in and let it out. Now do you feel better now?