2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hammy]

Lot's of waves on the euro weren't for the dry air we'd have an outbreak.

It's not the dry air, that dramatically thins out. The monsoon trough is too strong so we're getting these large, diffuse gyres coming off rather than compact waves.

[skyline385]

Activity on the EPS mostly in the fantasy range and seeing how many times it’s busted this season i would take it with a grain of salt, especially with the amount of over-deepened high latitude waves coming out on it.




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[skyline385]

Lot's of waves on the euro weren't for the dry air we'd have an outbreak.

It's not the dry air, that dramatically thins out. The monsoon trough is too strong so we're getting these large, diffuse gyres coming off rather than compact waves.

We had the same problem in 2020 and even that year with it’s more favourable base state struggled to get quality MDR systems.


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[Hammy]

Activity on the EPS mostly in the fantasy range and seeing how many times it’s busted this season i would take it with a grain of salt, especially with the amount of over-deepened high latitude waves coming out on it.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220818/fe0927fb39973681a93c86476b2ca098.jpg


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I've been largely ignoring the level of activity on the EPS because it's been varying so much, but one thing they're definitely worth is where the concentration is at--run by run the concentration of lines is getting continually further south, both keeping them out of the traditionally unfavorable east-central Atlantic, as well as opening up for more waves to make it further west.

[skyline385]

18Z GFS has some development but its way out in fantasy land and probably not even worth posting

[toad strangler]

18Z GFS has some development but its way out in fantasy land and probably not even worth posting

Well, there hasn’t been a problem this month posting a fantasy range run when it’s a dry baron wasteland.

[cycloneye]

This thread is for the members to post runs up to 16 days.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS back to a hurricane in the W Basin. GFS off/on with development, something to watch closely.

[LarryWx]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/G3yrrwcd/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh204-384.gif [/url]

18z GFS back to a hurricane in the W Basin. GFS off/on with development, something to watch closely.

Just to clarify in case anyone is wondering, this is not from the AEW now just offshore Africa (that's the one that lead several past gfs runs to generate a H in the W Atlantic), but rather from one that probably won't hit the ocean for a number of days. The GFS suite has really backed off on developing the one just off Africa.

[Teban54]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/G3yrrwcd/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh204-384.gif [/url]

18z GFS back to a hurricane in the W Basin. GFS off/on with development, something to watch closely.

This seems to be from the "second wave" behind the one GFS had been enthusiastic about for days.

While some may write it off as another long-range fantasy storm, I tend to think this is GFS sniffing out potentially favorable conditions down the road, it's just not sure about the timing and intensity.

And for those who throw out all long-range model runs, the lack of development in the long range shouldn't indicate no activity then, right?

[skyline385]

18Z GFS has some development but its way out in fantasy land and probably not even worth posting

Well, there hasn’t been a problem this month posting a fantasy range run when it’s a dry baron wasteland.

I thought some members didn't trust model runs especially 384 hours out, guess I was wrong.

[skyline385]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/G3yrrwcd/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh204-384.gif [/url]

18z GFS back to a hurricane in the W Basin. GFS off/on with development, something to watch closely.

This seems to be from the "second wave" behind the one GFS had been enthusiastic about for days.

While some may write it off as another long-range fantasy storm, I tend to think this is GFS sniffing out potentially favorable conditions down the road, it's just not sure about the timing and intensity.

And for those who throw out all long-range model runs, the lack of development in the long range shouldn't indicate no activity then, right?

Correct, one shouldn't look at the lack of activity from single operational runs and seriously think this season is going to be a bust. In case you haven't seen it already, check out the weekly forecast from today. The flip is coming

[Hammy]

I don't normally post the CFS runs in this thread but something caught my eye as I checked September--been pretty consistent in showing the switch flip a little earlier than I'm personally expecting.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GEFS is quiet for the most part. The GFS long-range hurricanes it has been showing off and on are not believable until we are within a week on the GFS if not less than 5 days. We have seen already this year the model spins up phantom storms even in the medium range. That said we are nearing the climatological peak of Sept 10th which is only a few weeks away so sooner than later the models should start showing something real.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS still pretty dead with nothing developing thru hour 336. However there seems to be a notable uptick in activity on the 0z GEFS for the first wave so far.

18z GEFS for the first wave valid 6z 8/26


0z GEFS valid 6z 8/26

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is showing a system moving off Africa in a few days not doing much development unlike the 18z but is it possible the models are under doing these systems for late August or is the dry air just too much

The GEFS ensembles are showing both the first wave SSW of the C V islands and the wave coming off Africa in a few days developing so maybe we get something going in the Atlantic by next week

[Steve]

CMC has a TS hit around Galveston Bay (Galveston/Chambers Counties) around Day 10. It’s still dry, and the last third of August isn’t always all that. But you could see a possible Gulf threat in 7-10 days if the MJO goes favorable as predicted and the VP’s @ 200 go the way the JMA has predicted. 8/29 is Katrina and Ida. CMC, as many have noted, went from crazy to not developing much. I’m only pointing it out because it is the first global to get on board with a Gulf hit at the end of the month. Whether it’s out to lunch remains to be seen.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 81900&fh=6

You already know that on the offhand chance it found a needle in the proverbial haystack, it’s way under done.

[skyline385]

The 18Z GEFS is quiet for the most part. The GFS long-range hurricanes it has been showing off and on are not believable until we are within a week on the GFS if not less than 5 days. We have seen already this year the model spins up phantom storms even in the medium range. That said we are nearing the climatological peak of Sept 10th which is only a few weeks away so sooner than later the models should start showing something real.

Yep, 0Z GFS again has nothing on it. Unless we see multiple ensemble support it’s safe to assume in my opinion that whatever the GFS shows at max range is going to end up as a fantasy cane. The season flip is incoming though, just need multiple models to join in on a disturbance.



Meanwhile EPS seems to have also given up on West Atlantic activity, only showing some activity for OTS systems.

[Hammy]

Euro doing its thing where it develops TCs over Africa itself, usually a precursor the switch flip.

[aspen]

The Euro, CMC, and ICON all try to develop a wave that emerges off of Africa around August 24th. This is one of the two waves the GFS developed into MDR storms back when it was actually showing any Atlantic development.