2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1283134334682234882

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1283186501677875200

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1283146028288479232



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1283148242226688005



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283149230530600965



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283190766567907336

[dexterlabio]

I am aware that all indicators are pointing towards an above average Atlantic hurricane season this year, in terms of both quality and quantity of tropical cyclones. If this happens indeed, 2020 will be the fifth consecutive year of above-average ATL hurricane seasons. Will this be some sort of a record-breaker?

[Shell Mound]

This setup is very unsettling here on Long Island. The strange placement of the Bermuda High to the NE keeps allowing for intervals of straight S to N or SSW to NNE flow along the east coast. If this persists into peak season, I would bet my hat that at least one hurricane will at least threaten the Carolinas northward to New England.

Personally, I think that the general tracks in 2020 may be somewhat similar to those of 2011: one cluster in the W Caribbean/BoC and another up the East Coast. I definitely think that a Floyd- or Irene-type track—or even a repeat of the infamous 1821 Norfolk–Long Island hurricane—is quite feasible, along with an active CV season and plenty of late-season activity in the W Caribbean/BoC as well. However, while tracks may be rather similar, overall activity will be busier and more intense than in 2011. Maybe we’ll see a Cat-4 landfall in eastern NC that maintains its strength as it rapidly parallels the East Coast from the Outer Banks to NYC while remaining just inland from the coast. I think Fay may have been an early “warning” for the Mid-Atlantic region.

Personally, I think that this year may be unusual in that several regions may see impacts which normally do not occur in the same season. For example, we could see a) a powerful W-Caribbean system that crosses the Yucatán and strikes South TX; b) an intense CV long-tracker that strikes the NE Caribbean, Southeast FL (Miami area), and MS/AL; and c) a MH impact to the Mid-Atlantic that rapidly heads NNE from eastern NC to over or just west of NYC, à la 1821. (Note that in 2011 Florida avoided impacts; even though MH Rina developed in the W Caribbean in late October, it curved eastward well to the south of FL and dissipated over western Cuba. However, we could see some similar tracks to those of 2011 and add to those a FL-centric cluster associated with the CV long-tracker I mentioned.)

Looking at the tracks observed thus far in 2020, one can see hints of several such clusters possibly occurring this year. Furthermore, I was looking at Mr. James “Jim” William’s Hurricane City and noted that five cities in the mainland U.S. have already seen TS impacts as of 15 July 2020—something that is likely very rare in history. Note that cities in the “top five,” if appearing more than once, more often than not tend to get impacted the second time. (Panama City, FL, was a “top-five” [no. two] in 2016 but got hit in ‘18, despite being unlisted in the latter year. Hermine ‘16 was just a bit too far to the east.) Miami was a “top-five” (no. four) in ‘14 but is now no. seven in ‘20. Anyway, iCyclone is based in Pass Christian, MS, this year, so maybe we’ll get a Miami-to-MS runner.

[jaxfladude]

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season may be quiet??? Or too early still? Need Good News!

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe the models will show something in the Tropical Atlantic soon.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1283381505050521600

[toad strangler]

This setup is very unsettling here on Long Island. The strange placement of the Bermuda High to the NE keeps allowing for intervals of straight S to N or SSW to NNE flow along the east coast. If this persists into peak season, I would bet my hat that at least one hurricane will at least threaten the Carolinas northward to New England.

Personally, I think that the general tracks in 2020 may be somewhat similar to those of 2011: one cluster in the W Caribbean/BoC and another up the East Coast. I definitely think that a Floyd- or Irene-type track—or even a repeat of the infamous 1821 Norfolk–Long Island hurricane—is quite feasible, along with an active CV season and plenty of late-season activity in the W Caribbean/BoC as well. However, while tracks may be rather similar, overall activity will be busier and more intense than in 2011. Maybe we’ll see a Cat-4 landfall in eastern NC that maintains its strength as it rapidly parallels the East Coast from the Outer Banks to NYC while remaining just inland from the coast. I think Fay may have been an early “warning” for the Mid-Atlantic region.

Personally, I think that this year may be unusual in that several regions may see impacts which normally do not occur in the same season. For example, we could see a) a powerful W-Caribbean system that crosses the Yucatán and strikes South TX; b) an intense CV long-tracker that strikes the NE Caribbean, Southeast FL (Miami area), and MS/AL; and c) a MH impact to the Mid-Atlantic that rapidly heads NNE from eastern NC to over or just west of NYC, à la 1821. (Note that in 2011 Florida avoided impacts; even though MH Rina developed in the W Caribbean in late October, it curved eastward well to the south of FL and dissipated over western Cuba. However, we could see some similar tracks to those of 2011 and add to those a FL-centric cluster associated with the CV long-tracker I mentioned.)

Looking at the tracks observed thus far in 2020, one can see hints of several such clusters possibly occurring this year. Furthermore, I was looking at Mr. James “Jim” William’s Hurricane City and noted that five cities in the mainland U.S. have already seen TS impacts as of 15 July 2020—something that is likely very rare in history. Note that cities in the “top five,” if appearing more than once, more often than not tend to get impacted the second time. (Panama City, FL, was a “top-five” [no. two] in 2016 but got hit in ‘18, despite being unlisted in the latter year. Hermine ‘16 was just a bit too far to the east.) Miami was a “top-five” (no. four) in ‘14 but is now no. seven in ‘20. Anyway, iCyclone is based in Pass Christian, MS, this year, so maybe we’ll get a Miami-to-MS runner.

My windshield wipers have nothing on you

[NDG]

Ensemble model is showing the dust to start settling down across the MDR this weekend, it could get interesting, by July standards, next week as strong waves start coming off of Africa.

[aspen]

Ensemble model is showing the dust to start settling down across the MDR this weekend, it could get interesting, by July standards, next week as strong waves start coming off of Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/YOOsmW9.gif

I’m mainly concerned about a wave getting into the Caribbean or Gulf. Dry air is less of an issue there than in the rest of the MDR, SSTs and OHC are both very high, and wind shear is (for now) surprisingly low for July. We could potentially get the first hurricane of the season in that region within the next 2-3 weeks.

[SFLcane]

Ensemble model is showing the dust to start settling down across the MDR this weekend, it could get interesting, by July standards, next week as strong waves start coming off of Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/YOOsmW9.gif

A Strong suppressed Kelvin wave is coming which should keep the MDR hostile till then end of the month.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1283408479256891393

[EquusStorm]

I think we've gotten too used to active Julys over the last 25 years; big storms in July usually a feature of hyperactive seasons, sure, but 4 out of 9 the hyperactive seasons in the active phase (1999, 2004, 2010, 2017) had anemic/weak to non-existent early MDR activity. To be fair 2017 had three TCs deep in the MDR but they were pretty pitiful and super brief. 2004 (226 ACE) began on July 31 and the second named storm of 1999 (176 ACE) - and the first from a tropical wave - didn't develop until August 18. 2010 (165 ACE) didn't REALLY get going in the MDR til Danielle on August 21, anomalous Alex notwithstanding

[SFLcane]

I think we've gotten too used to active Julys over the last 25 years; big storms in July usually a feature of hyperactive seasons, sure, but 4 out of 9 the hyperactive seasons in the active phase (1999, 2004, 2010, 2017) had anemic/weak to non-existent early MDR activity. To be fair 2017 had three TCs deep in the MDR but they were pretty pitiful and super brief. 2004 (226 ACE) began on July 31 and the second named storm of 1999 (176 ACE) - and the first from a tropical wave - didn't develop until August 18. 2010 (165 ACE) didn't REALLY get going in the MDR til Danielle on August 21, anomalous Alex notwithstanding

Great post!

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1283408479256891393

FWIW W.ATL seems oddly dry. TUTT's? Dry Air? Shear?

[hurricanes1234]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1283408479256891393

FWIW W.ATL seems oddly dry. TUTT's? Dry Air? Shear?

I think it's primarily due to the current Saharan dust outbreak as well as the suppressive phase of the MJO being in place for the moment (although I could be wrong about the second one).

The deep-layer shear in the Caribbean and the MDR is in fact unusually low for mid-July, and once the dust clears a little, the air should moisten up too.

[storminabox]

Ensemble model is showing the dust to start settling down across the MDR this weekend, it could get interesting, by July standards, next week as strong waves start coming off of Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/YOOsmW9.gif

A Strong suppressed Kelvin wave is coming which should keep the MDR hostile till then end of the month.

[url]https://iili.io/dKALdJ.png [/url]

Which one is it? Lots of conflicting information on here.

[OURAGAN]

Manuel floater on CV Wave

[TheStormExpert]

Ensemble model is showing the dust to start settling down across the MDR this weekend, it could get interesting, by July standards, next week as strong waves start coming off of Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/YOOsmW9.gif

A Strong suppressed Kelvin wave is coming which should keep the MDR hostile till then end of the month.

[url]https://iili.io/dKALdJ.png [/url]

But Michael Ventrice was just tweeting this morning about the MJO entering a favorable phase, I’m confused?

[AutoPenalti]

Ensemble model is showing the dust to start settling down across the MDR this weekend, it could get interesting, by July standards, next week as strong waves start coming off of Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/YOOsmW9.gif

A Strong suppressed Kelvin wave is coming which should keep the MDR hostile till then end of the month.

[url]https://iili.io/dKALdJ.png [/url]

Are you sure? That seems to state the opposite unless I'm reading it wrong.