2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Ianswfl]

Very true Ike was bad enough as it was but no where close to what a worse case scenario what look like for the Houston/Galveston area. South Florida and Houston/Galveston have been very lucky with major hurricanes over these last several decades. There hasn't been a major hurricane landfall in Galvestion since 1983 with Alicia and for Southeast Florida they haven't been hit from the east with a major since Jeanne in 2004.

As destructive as Ian was last year I still think Florida somewhat dodged a bullet. Had Ian followed earlier predictions and tracked further north, it could have sent a huge storm surge into Tampa Bay which would probably be much worse in terms of damage and death toll than what actually happened, bearing in mind Tampa has not had a major storm surge event for a long time and residents have no experience of such an event.

Had Ian made landfall in Tampa it probably would have only been a 120-125mph storm due to increased land interaction and drier air. However, since a lot of the buildings up there are older and pre hurricane Andrew and Charley do you think the wind damage to structures would have been worse as well?

Here in Charlotte County, especially Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda most of the structures are either post Charley or had major repairs from Charley damage so they faired a lot better than the older buildings in Englewood I noticed. Englewood didn't get heavy damage from Charley so didn't have a total rebuild.

I think wind damage was to structures would have been a lot worse on top of it in a Tampa landfall despite weaker. For example this hotel, Condo on Sanibel had catastrophic wind damage. At first landfall the weaker eastern side of Ian was still pretty potent. Severe storms surge cam 5 survived most of the eastern eyewall and those winds still looked 140 on the eastern side that hit Sanibel. Was pretty dramatic footage. Sanibel those structures are pre andrew and the wind damage really showed on them. Unsurviveable on the 3rd story if you were running from the surge.

Scene like this in the Tampa area would be common to those older buildings, especially if it was a strong cat3.

 

[REDHurricane]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704927968223432744
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704931582962790438

Yep, I don't see any reason why the Atlantic won't keep producing significant hurricanes during the two and a half months (10 weeks) remaining until November 30. The climatological peak of the hurricane season was just 11 days ago. The SSTs throughout the Caribbean/Gulf/Atlantic -- other than a relatively small area of cooler water carved out by Lee and Franklin in the subtropics near Bermuda -- are still extremely, anomalously warm, especially in the areas where hurricanes typically like to form in October/November. Essentially the entire Caribbean and southwest Atlantic are still at or above 30ºC, and the El Niño in all likelihood is not going to put a lid on tropical activity like it usually does. This hurricane season is definitely not close to being finished yet, and I think it's somewhat shortsighted to think otherwise at this point.

[WalterWhite]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704927968223432744
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704931582962790438

No matter how warm the MDR is, we are not getting Cape Verde hurricanes in November. I could see October but definitely not November. Not even 2005 or 2020 had Cape Verde hurricanes in November.

[WalterWhite]

The Atlantic right now:

2022 (La Niña plus very warm Atlantic): I'll make you below-average!

2023 (Strong El Niño plus very warm Atlantic): And I'll make you above-average!

[Hurricane2022]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704927968223432744
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704931582962790438

No matter how warm the MDR is, we are not getting Cape Verde hurricanes in November. I could see October but definitely not November. Not even 2005 or 2020 had Cape Verde hurricanes in November.

Remember the record warm SSTs.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1705180992929955849




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1705190090950193331

[al78]

Very true Ike was bad enough as it was but no where close to what a worse case scenario what look like for the Houston/Galveston area. South Florida and Houston/Galveston have been very lucky with major hurricanes over these last several decades. There hasn't been a major hurricane landfall in Galvestion since 1983 with Alicia and for Southeast Florida they haven't been hit from the east with a major since Jeanne in 2004.

As destructive as Ian was last year I still think Florida somewhat dodged a bullet. Had Ian followed earlier predictions and tracked further north, it could have sent a huge storm surge into Tampa Bay which would probably be much worse in terms of damage and death toll than what actually happened, bearing in mind Tampa has not had a major storm surge event for a long time and residents have no experience of such an event.

Had Ian made landfall in Tampa it probably would have only been a 120-125mph storm due to increased land interaction and drier air. However, since a lot of the buildings up there are older and pre hurricane Andrew and Charley do you think the wind damage to structures would have been worse as well?
 

I'm not familiar with the building codes and resiliance of structures to major hurricane winds but my thinking is that even if a Tampa landfall would have been weaker than what was observed, if the hurricane maintained cat 4 winds at sea whilst approaching Tampa and the peak winds were aligned optimally to funnel water into the bay, the storm surge around Tampa and St Petersburg could have reached 15-20 feet. There are a lot of very expensive homes around there built right up to the waterfront protected only by a very modest seawall, so a major surge event would see those homes wrecked i.e. big insurance loss.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1705281622348792135

[WalterWhite]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704927968223432744
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704931582962790438

No matter how warm the MDR is, we are not getting Cape Verde hurricanes in November. I could see October but definitely not November. Not even 2005 or 2020 had Cape Verde hurricanes in November.

Remember the record warm SSTs.

Has there ever been a Cape Verde hurricane recorded in November?

[CyclonicFury]

No matter how warm the MDR is, we are not getting Cape Verde hurricanes in November. I could see October but definitely not November. Not even 2005 or 2020 had Cape Verde hurricanes in November.

Remember the record warm SSTs.

Has there ever been a Cape Verde hurricane recorded in November?

I can't think of any in the satellite era, but I can think of some hurricanes that formed from AEWs in November. Kate 1985, Kate 2015 and Iota 2020 are some examples.

[WalterWhite]

Remember the record warm SSTs.

Has there ever been a Cape Verde hurricane recorded in November?

I can't think of any in the satellite era, but I can think of some hurricanes that formed from AEWs in November. Kate 1985, Kate 2015 and Iota 2020 are some examples.

That could certainly happen this November, but I still highly doubt it is realistic to presume we might see a bona fide Cape Verde hurricane in November (i.e. one that forms east of 40 W).

[Sciencerocks]

I am starting to suspect that global warming is starting to make the difference
 https://twitter.com/Lijing_Cheng/status/1705232940316418202

[REDHurricane]

I am starting to suspect that global warming is starting to make the difference
https://twitter.com/Lijing_Cheng/status/1705232940316418202

How extraordinary and utterly terrifying it is to see the entire Earth's climate irreversibly transform right before our eyes... literally hundreds, if not thousands, of years' worth of change to our planet taking place within the span of mere decades, and there's nothing that we can do except watch the chaos unfold

[WalterWhite]

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704146760510181394?t=vC-Dc12-X0HvpWvZ8V7zYA&s=19

That is actually pretty normal for El Niños. El Niños generally have rising air over the Americans, and La Niñás generally have rising air over the Indian Ocean.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I am starting to suspect that global warming is starting to make the difference
https://twitter.com/Lijing_Cheng/status/1705232940316418202

How extraordinary and utterly terrifying it is to see the entire Earth's climate irreversibly transform right before our eyes... literally hundreds, if not thousands, of years' worth of change to our planet taking place within the span of mere decades, and there's nothing that we can do except watch the chaos unfold

I am starting to suspect that global warming is starting to make the difference
https://twitter.com/Lijing_Cheng/status/1705232940316418202

How extraordinary and utterly terrifying it is to see the entire Earth's climate irreversibly transform right before our eyes... literally hundreds, if not thousands, of years' worth of change to our planet taking place within the span of mere decades, and there's nothing that we can do except watch the chaos unfold

Imo global warming will continue to make <100 ace Atlantic hurricane seasons rarer and rarer. The downtrend is already happening, 1990s had 6, 2000s had 4, and the 2010s only had 3. Admittedly the 70s through the early 90s was an inactive period, but even in the 1930s-60s there weren't 6 year streaks of 130+ ace seasons (2016-2021). 2022 was only barely below 100 ace despite having record inactivity from June-August. A strong el nino is unlikely to prevent the season from achieving at least 130 ace, which is unprecedented in the modern record. As time goes forward, there is going to continue to be more energy out there for TCs to tap into which will allow them to strengthen stronger, quicker, and to be longer lived.

[Ianswfl]

I am starting to suspect that global warming is starting to make the difference
https://twitter.com/Lijing_Cheng/status/1705232940316418202

How extraordinary and utterly terrifying it is to see the entire Earth's climate irreversibly transform right before our eyes... literally hundreds, if not thousands, of years' worth of change to our planet taking place within the span of mere decades, and there's nothing that we can do except watch the chaos unfold

I am starting to suspect that global warming is starting to make the difference
https://twitter.com/Lijing_Cheng/status/1705232940316418202

How extraordinary and utterly terrifying it is to see the entire Earth's climate irreversibly transform right before our eyes... literally hundreds, if not thousands, of years' worth of change to our planet taking place within the span of mere decades, and there's nothing that we can do except watch the chaos unfold

Imo global warming will continue to make <100 ace Atlantic hurricane seasons rarer and rarer. The downtrend is already happening, 1990s had 6, 2000s had 4, and the 2010s only had 3. Admittedly the 70s through the early 90s was an inactive period, but even in the 1930s-60s there weren't 6 year streaks of 130+ ace seasons (2016-2021). 2022 was only barely below 100 ace despite having record inactivity from June-August. A strong el nino is unlikely to prevent the season from achieving at least 130 ace, which is unprecedented in the modern record. As time goes forward, there is going to continue to be more energy out there for TCs to tap into which will allow them to strengthen stronger, quicker, and to be longer lived.

You think the gulf will be more active in nov due to warmer temps?

[cheezyWXguy]

I am starting to suspect that global warming is starting to make the difference
https://twitter.com/Lijing_Cheng/status/1705232940316418202

How extraordinary and utterly terrifying it is to see the entire Earth's climate irreversibly transform right before our eyes... literally hundreds, if not thousands, of years' worth of change to our planet taking place within the span of mere decades, and there's nothing that we can do except watch the chaos unfold

I am starting to suspect that global warming is starting to make the difference
https://twitter.com/Lijing_Cheng/status/1705232940316418202

How extraordinary and utterly terrifying it is to see the entire Earth's climate irreversibly transform right before our eyes... literally hundreds, if not thousands, of years' worth of change to our planet taking place within the span of mere decades, and there's nothing that we can do except watch the chaos unfold

Imo global warming will continue to make <100 ace Atlantic hurricane seasons rarer and rarer. The downtrend is already happening, 1990s had 6, 2000s had 4, and the 2010s only had 3. Admittedly the 70s through the early 90s was an inactive period, but even in the 1930s-60s there weren't 6 year streaks of 130+ ace seasons (2016-2021). 2022 was only barely below 100 ace despite having record inactivity from June-August. A strong el nino is unlikely to prevent the season from achieving at least 130 ace, which is unprecedented in the modern record. As time goes forward, there is going to continue to be more energy out there for TCs to tap into which will allow them to strengthen stronger, quicker, and to be longer lived.

While I agree global warming could have an impact on this, analysis of this is muddied by a third variable problem: lack of detection during the pre-satellite era and a relatively short period of tc record keeping in general (~150 years). The next decade or two should prove very valuable in determining the correlation between ssts and tc activity in spite of enso, with this year obviously being one of the first to dig into

[WeatherBoy2000]

How extraordinary and utterly terrifying it is to see the entire Earth's climate irreversibly transform right before our eyes... literally hundreds, if not thousands, of years' worth of change to our planet taking place within the span of mere decades, and there's nothing that we can do except watch the chaos unfold

Imo global warming will continue to make <100 ace Atlantic hurricane seasons rarer and rarer. The downtrend is already happening, 1990s had 6, 2000s had 4, and the 2010s only had 3. Admittedly the 70s through the early 90s was an inactive period, but even in the 1930s-60s there weren't 6 year streaks of 130+ ace seasons (2016-2021). 2022 was only barely below 100 ace despite having record inactivity from June-August. A strong el nino is unlikely to prevent the season from achieving at least 130 ace, which is unprecedented in the modern record. As time goes forward, there is going to continue to be more energy out there for TCs to tap into which will allow them to strengthen stronger, quicker, and to be longer lived.

While I agree global warming could have an impact on this, analysis of this is muddied by a third variable problem: lack of detection during the pre-satellite era and a relatively short period of tc record keeping in general (~150 years). The next decade or two should prove very valuable in determining the correlation between ssts and tc activity in spite of enso, with this year obviously being one of the first to dig into

Yeah we'll ultimately have to wait and see. Imo the continued warming of the basin should allow storms to get more powerful and to last longer compared to the past, both good for accumulating ace. I think I read a study somewhere that claims AGW would result in a reduction of storms worldwide but the ones that do form will generally be stronger. We may see fewer storms but higher ace.

[tolakram]

Look back during the major hurricane drought. Same thing, just different. Everyone is convinced something has changed and everything will be different, and yet the same as it is now. These posts will look foolish a few years from now, just like 2013 redo predictions look foolish at the start of a busy season.

Predict slow season, get strong season, overreact.
Predict strong season, get slow season, overreact.

Works well on social media only.

[WalterWhite]

Tropical Depression 17L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Philippe according to the latest best track update. That brings the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season to 17 storms.

Only 3 seasons have had 17 or more storms by September 23: 2005, 2020, and 2021. The big question now is how the late season progresses. If the late season progresses in a similar fashion to 2005 or 2020, the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season would likely be hyperactive. If it progresses in a similar fashion to 2021, the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season would almost certainly not become hyperactive.

Moreover, if the season were to follow climatology from here until the end of year, the season would end with 21 storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This season has exceeded climatology so far, so we could realistically see higher statistics in all three of those categories.