Rita Recon Reports

[Solaris]

URNT40 KWBC 231740
NOAA3 2318A RITA
173030 2824 09122 9949 -0264 141097 +128 +115 140098 066 008
173100 2823 09124 9884 -0300 139101 +131 +124 138103 066 007
173130 2821 09126 9896 -0329 141102 +134 +123 141104 068 008
173200 2820 09127 9942 -0354 141104 +130 +127 141104 067 011
173230 2819 09129 9983 -0374 143102 +130 +130 143104 069 012
173300 2818 09130 9970 -0400 145099 +131 +130 145101 071 015
173330 2817 09132 9986 -0416 144097 +130 +130 143097 071 015
173400 2815 09133 9970 -0434 142093 +131 +130 142094 070 007
173430 2814 09135 10066 -0446 141093 +133 +128 142093 069 005
173500 2813 09136 10001 -0473 139094 +134 +131 138096 068 005
173530 2811 09138 9994 -0499 138095 +131 +131 138095 068 006
173600 2810 09139 9932 -0535 138095 +135 +127 137095 068 005
173630 2809 09141 9935 -0564 137094 +146 +114 137095 067 004
173700 2807 09142 9873 -0604 136100 +143 +111 136102 065 002
173730 2806 09144 10019 -0634 137102 +137 +103 136102 066 002
173800 2805 09146 10000 -0686 136103 +135 +107 137103 065 003
173830 2804 09147 9995 -0737 136101 +129 +110 136102 067 004
173900 2803 09149 9982 -0795 137102 +132 +122 140103 068 013
173930 2802 09151 10014 -0863 141107 +134 +133 141108 073 012
174000 2801 09153 10019 -0940 142115 +137 +137 141117 075 016

double wind maxima

[Solaris]

URNT40 KWBC 231750
NOAA3 2318A RITA
174030 2759 09155 10040 -1019 142116 +136 +136 142118 075 028
174100 2758 09156 10010 -1112 142118 +141 +136 143120 085 013
174130 2757 09158 10010 -1224 145125 +141 +141 147128 088 011
174200 2756 09200 10043 -1334 145120 +150 +150 146127 093 009
174230 2755 09201 10051 -1436 143101 +158 +158 141112 093 005
174300 2754 09203 9982 -1527 143087 +166 +164 144091 085 002
174330 2753 09205 9921 -1605 143072 +181 +155 143080 062 003
174400 2752 09207 9963 -1650 140058 +192 +151 142064 043 003
174430 2751 09208 9986 -1685 139042 +188 +152 138047 029 003
174500 2749 09210 9979 -1707 141031 +193 +140 141035 020 003
174530 2748 09212 9976 -1716 139019 +192 +142 139023 014 003
174600 2747 09214 9976 -1712 141010 +186 +142 142014 011 002
174630 2745 09215 9969 -1706 169002 +176 +150 146005 011 003
174700 2744 09217 9976 -1696 318006 +172 +148 322009 011 003
174730 2742 09219 9966 -1673 325017 +172 +155 321022 016 003
174800 2741 09221 9970 -1627 307033 +178 +150 305038 025 004
174830 2740 09222 9978 -1562 313052 +178 +149 314058 034 004
174900 2738 09224 9970 -1482 314068 +166 +164 313081 056 009
174930 2737 09225 9970 -1372 308094 +164 +158 307097 082 023
175000 2736 09227 9933 -1253 310093 +162 +144 310096 082 023


128 kt in SE quadrant

[Thunder44]

128kts in the NE Quad. The winds are coming out of the SE.

[Thunder44]

353
URNT12 KNHC 231805Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1746Z
B. 27 DEG 45 MIN N
92 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2489 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 146 DEG 129 KT
G. 051 DEG 19 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 12 C/ 3064 M
J. 19 C/ 3041 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1741Z
EYE OPEN NE THRU SE


Pressure down one 1mb to 930mb? 129kts at 700mb is also 90% reduction, so at the surface that's about 116kts or 133mph.

[soonertwister]

Eye diameter shrinks from 30 to 20 in 35 minutes?

[Brent]

NHC was premature with the Cat 3 downgrade...

[SnowCover]

You can see the eye shrink on radar.

[deltadog03]

good call brent..

[Solaris]

URNT40 KWBC 231800
NOAA2 WX18A RITA
173100 2700 09209 7588 -0584 257065 +183 -901 253067 045 002
173200 2703 09205 6967 -0658 249069 +187 -233 247069 043 001
173300 2708 09205 6228 -0770 247071 +193 -015 247072 045 001
173400 2712 09205 5835 -0870 245074 +202 +093 244077 049 000
173500 2716 09205 5942 -0949 244079 +205 +141 243080 054 001
173600 2720 09206 5971 -1050 245083 +201 +141 244084 060 001
173700 2724 09207 6089 -1172 247088 +199 +145 246090 063 000
173800 2728 09208 6249 -1349 246097 +214 +119 244103 070 000
173900 2732 09208 6478 -1578 245105 +223 +122 244111 078 000
174000 2736 09209 6762 -1774 247070 +230 +123 249089 052 001
174100 2740 09210 6837 -1893 236041 +238 +106 244053 033 001
174200 2745 09211 6886 -1935 178013 +219 +109 205019 016 001
174300 2749 09212 6878 -1929 133018 +215 +122 126023 019 001
174400 2753 09212 6884 -1903 117036 +221 +120 116048 031 001
174500 2757 09212 6857 -1809 108071 +212 +122 104089 058 001
174600 2801 09212 6689 -1618 103118 +194 +131 107130 093 026
174700 2805 09212 6442 -1383 096118 +188 +141 096123 089 028
174800 2808 09212 6178 -1204 093111 +195 +155 095117 083 024
174900 2812 09212 6060 -1070 095103 +192 +139 095105 075 015
175000 2816 09212 5970 -0969 097100 +189 -737 096101 072 007
175100 2820 09212 5884 -0879 098095 +192 -801 098096 071 002
175200 2824 09212 5820 -0810 099093 +193 -533 099095 070 001
175400 2831 09215 5694 -0696 100105 +189 +050 098106 999 999
175500 2833 09220 5703 -0668 095105 +187 -018 095107 999 999
175600 2831 09225 5703 -0693 088102 +187 -857 090103 065 008
175700 2828 09230 5703 -0717 081101 +188 -952 083103 068 005
175800 2824 09235 5697 -0741 073102 +188 -139 071103 069 003
175900 2821 09240 5701 -0757 067101 +189 -025 068103 068 004
180000 2818 09245 5704 -0757 059101 +188 +039 060103 067 004

winds up to 130 kt again from 107° = SSW = SE quadrant??

[Thunder44]

681
URNT40 KWBC 231800
NOAA2 WX18A RITA
173100 2700 09209 7588 -0584 257065 +183 -901 253067 045 002
173200 2703 09205 6967 -0658 249069 +187 -233 247069 043 001
173300 2708 09205 6228 -0770 247071 +193 -015 247072 045 001
173400 2712 09205 5835 -0870 245074 +202 +093 244077 049 000
173500 2716 09205 5942 -0949 244079 +205 +141 243080 054 001
173600 2720 09206 5971 -1050 245083 +201 +141 244084 060 001
173700 2724 09207 6089 -1172 247088 +199 +145 246090 063 000
173800 2728 09208 6249 -1349 246097 +214 +119 244103 070 000
173900 2732 09208 6478 -1578 245105 +223 +122 244111 078 000
174000 2736 09209 6762 -1774 247070 +230 +123 249089 052 001
174100 2740 09210 6837 -1893 236041 +238 +106 244053 033 001
174200 2745 09211 6886 -1935 178013 +219 +109 205019 016 001
174300 2749 09212 6878 -1929 133018 +215 +122 126023 019 001
174400 2753 09212 6884 -1903 117036 +221 +120 116048 031 001
174500 2757 09212 6857 -1809 108071 +212 +122 104089 058 001
174600 2801 09212 6689 -1618 103118 +194 +131 107130 093 026
174700 2805 09212 6442 -1383 096118 +188 +141 096123 089 028
174800 2808 09212 6178 -1204 093111 +195 +155 095117 083 024
174900 2812 09212 6060 -1070 095103 +192 +139 095105 075 015
175000 2816 09212 5970 -0969 097100 +189 -737 096101 072 007
175100 2820 09212 5884 -0879 098095 +192 -801 098096 071 002
175200 2824 09212 5820 -0810 099093 +193 -533 099095 070 001
175400 2831 09215 5694 -0696 100105 +189 +050 098106 999 999
175500 2833 09220 5703 -0668 095105 +187 -018 095107 999 999
175600 2831 09225 5703 -0693 088102 +187 -857 090103 065 008
175700 2828 09230 5703 -0717 081101 +188 -952 083103 068 005
175800 2824 09235 5697 -0741 073102 +188 -139 071103 069 003
175900 2821 09240 5701 -0757 067101 +189 -025 068103 068 004
180000 2818 09245 5704 -0757 059101 +188 +039 060103 067 004


130kts in the N Quad. Winds are coming out of the ESE.

[Brent]

Cat 4 uncancel.



Now they look stupid if the winds don't drop by the 5pm advisory.

[djtil]

Now they look stupid if the winds don't drop by the 5pm advisory.

why would they look stupid if a storm strengthens? advisories are based on observations at the time of the advisory....not a prediction of future events.

if they determine the storm has strengthened they will up winds at the next advisory....pretty standard MO.

[LanceW]

I would not think so. If this was an accurate reading, it is only 4 KMH above a CAT 3.

Cat 4 uncancel.



Now they look stupid if the winds don't drop by the 5pm advisory.

[Brent]

Now they look stupid if the winds don't drop by the 5pm advisory.

why would they look stupid if a storm strengthens? advisories are based on observations at the time of the advisory....not a prediction of future events.

if they determine the storm has strengthened they will up winds at the next advisory....pretty standard MO.

...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...

Oops.

[Brent]

I would not think so. If this was an accurate reading, it is only 4 KMH above a CAT 3.

Cat 4 uncancel.



Now they look stupid if the winds don't drop by the 5pm advisory.

and 7 kt above their 110 kt at 1pm... it may not sound significant, but saying it's a weakening Cat 3 rather than still a 4 makes a difference.

[Ivanhater]

its obvious on satellite shes gaining strength...explosion of cold cloud tops...not supposed to happen in a weakening storm

[LTHLBLU]

000
URNT12 KNHC 231805Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1746Z
B. 27 DEG 45 MIN N
92 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2489 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 146 DEG 129 KT
G. 051 DEG 19 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 12 C/ 3064 M
J. 19 C/ 3041 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1741Z
EYE OPEN NE THRU SE

[cjrciadt]

Now they look stupid if the winds don't drop by the 5pm advisory.

why would they look stupid if a storm strengthens? advisories are based on observations at the time of the advisory....not a prediction of future events.

if they determine the storm has strengthened they will up winds at the next advisory....pretty standard MO.

...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...

Oops.

All the cable networks are beating the drum of a weakening not slowly weakening Cat3 or even Cat2 by tonight and by landfall. If the 5pm advisory is even at borderline Cat4 they will positively silly.

[Brent]

All the cable networks are beating the drum of a weakening not slowly weakening Cat3 or even Cat2 by tonight and by landfall. If the 5pm advisory is even at borderline Cat4 they will positively silly.

That is my point... to say it's "weakening" is wrong. It may not be strengthening(1 mb isn't significant), but it's certainly not weakening. They shouldn't have lowered the winds... 930 mb+Cat 3=No.

[frannyzoo]

It's too late now, but I think a bit part of the problem is the whole Category system itself. We need a more complex, yet still butt simple for the media, classification system based on more than sustained wind speed.

I realize this is stating the obvious, but is anyone working on such a system? Can they have it media-ready by, say, 8:00 CDT tonight?