ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Macrocane]

I remember June 2004 was very wet and it was from cutoff lows over Texas. Hopefully we see El Nino because we need rain.

I hate the ENSO non Neutral phases because they do something good in one part of the world and something bad in another. For Central America an El Niño would be bad news as it means warmer and drier conditions, 2009 was very warm and we had a deficit of rain in El Salvador until November when we got the needed rain in just 2 days producing catastrophic floods.

By the way I know there are disasters on Neutral years but at least the climate is more predictable, if I'm wrong correct me please.

[Ptarmigan]

I hate the ENSO non Neutral phases because they do something good in one part of the world and something bad in another. For Central America an El Niño would be bad news as it means warmer and drier conditions, 2009 was very warm and we had a deficit of rain in El Salvador until November when we got the needed rain in just 2 days producing catastrophic floods.

By the way I know there are disasters on Neutral years but at least the climate is more predictable, if I'm wrong correct me please.

For us, it could be wet or dry. The last time we had an El Nino summer, it was hot and dry and that was in 2009.

[Macrocane]

For us, it could be wet or dry. The last time we had an El Nino summer, it was hot and dry and that was in 2009.

Oh, that's true, I remember that there was a ridge over the Gulf that never moved and the temos were very hot for a long time. I guess that's because the ENSO phase it's not the only pattern that controls the climate and weather, for example 2006 was an El Niño but it was a nice year in El Salvador with no drought or extreme floods.

[Ptarmigan]

Oh, that's true, I remember that there was a ridge over the Gulf that never moved and the temos were very hot for a long time. I guess that's because the ENSO phase it's not the only pattern that controls the climate and weather, for example 2006 was an El Niño but it was a nice year in El Salvador with no drought or extreme floods.

I dubbed that ridge over the Gulf the cockroach ridge. It was one of the hottest summers since 1980 and 1998 and I remember 1998 as well. Hot! Summer of 2006 was not really that bad. It was quite wet for us. We had heavy rain and flooding in May and June of that year. Early 2006 was dry and warm due to a weak La Nina.

[Rgv20]

That summer of 1998 was brutally hot for South Texas as many record highs were broken.

The following map shows the 500mb ridge nicely from the span of June to Aug.

[wxman57]

Quite a change over the past few weeks. Nearing El Nino by October now. Not the current rate of warming that's forecast to slow down immediately. Will it? Or will the season be shut down in October by an oncoming El Nino?

February 13th:


Current:

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/21/11 Weekly Update

ENSO is now in Weak La Nina status as Nino 3.4 continues to get less cold as this week's update is up to -0.8C,from the -1.0C that was last week. IMO,I think the experts like Klotzbach/Gray,TSR,JB,NOAA may have to go down in their numbers,if this acelerated warming trend continues.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: That summer of 1998 was brutally hot for South Texas as many record highs were broken.

The following map shows the 500mb ridge nicely from the span of June to Aug.
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... g-1998.png

It was sweltering in 1998. Hit a bunch 100s that time!

[Steve H.]

I don't think so Luis. what I am most concerned about is often these "tweener" states of ENSO. A lot of forecasters went for an exceptionally busy year in 2010, and it was, but not so for land falling systems in the western Atlantic. These seasons that are in transition mode have me concerned, and maybe it's a gut feeling, but I suspect it will be quite an active year, with the potential for more land falling systems. Nothing to really back it up, but this basically neutral ENSO isn't the only factor to a more or less busy season. I just have a feeling this year may give us some more concerns than the past couple of years. Call me a bit conservative, but I think 2011 will have some systems that we won't forget for awhile. Hope I'm wrong, but the temps are getting awfully warm for March here in Florida, and I think the Bermuda High will set up strong this year.

[cycloneye]

Here are all the ENSO models in detail from the March update.By the peak of the season (August,September and October) ,5 of them are with La Nina, 7 are in Neutral and 5 are with El Nino.

[xironman]

The last transition to a Nino everyone was amused by the NASA model, but in the end it turned out to be fairly close.

[South Texas Storms]

The last transition to a Nino everyone was amused by the NASA model, but in the end it turned out to be fairly close.

I remember that xironman! It seemed like an outlier but in fact it forecasted it very well. Let's see if it's accurate again.

[NDG]

Looking at some archived pictures back in April '10, last year, the ECMWF did the best in forecasting the strong La Nina.
The NASA model forecasted it to be stronger than it actually turned to be, so it could be an outlier again this year by forecasting a moderate to strong El Nino for the heart of the hurricane season.

[wxman57]

Euro is currently colder than the other models, averaging below normal for temps through October:

[cycloneye]

JB=Weakening La Nina but no El Nino comming

Interesting comments by JB about why El Nino will not appear during this 2011 hurricane season.

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=434

[xironman]

If I remember correctly he was keyed in on weak for the last Nino, it was moderate-strong. It looks like we are getting close to the -.5 range for the Nina.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/28/11 Weekly Update

Nino 3.4 remains the same as last week's update at -0.8C.

Niño 4= -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.8ºC
Niño 3= -0.6ºC
Niño1+2= -0.4ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Jam151]

interesting analysis here...the guys at Unapproved Site just put out a preliminary prediction of an El Nino by fall.

http://Unapproved Site.com/longrange/

[Weatherfreak000]

Not surprised the El Nino forecasts are starting to trickle in. I agree I think El Nino is more likely than I an anticipated at this point, we need another month of anomaly watching to be absolutely sure.

[Ivanhater]

CFS thinks we go Neutral then slide back into La Nina

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