2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1283408479256891393

FWIW W.ATL seems oddly dry. TUTT's? Dry Air? Shear?

I think it's primarily due to the current Saharan dust outbreak as well as the suppressive phase of the MJO being in place for the moment (although I could be wrong about the second one).

That tweet is actually the latest EC+UK blended outlook for ASO. The dry W ATL is forecast to be in place during ASO.

[Siker]

FWIW W.ATL seems oddly dry. TUTT's? Dry Air? Shear?

I think it's primarily due to the current Saharan dust outbreak as well as the suppressive phase of the MJO being in place for the moment (although I could be wrong about the second one).

That tweet is actually the latest EC+UK blended outlook for ASO. The dry W ATL is forecast to be in place during ASO.

Guessing it's a combo of a northward-displaced TUTT plus prevailing high placement funneling moisture through the Caribbean.

[Shell Mound]

I think it's primarily due to the current Saharan dust outbreak as well as the suppressive phase of the MJO being in place for the moment (although I could be wrong about the second one).

That tweet is actually the latest EC+UK blended outlook for ASO. The dry W ATL is forecast to be in place during ASO.

Guessing it's a combo of a northward-displaced TUTT plus prevailing high placement funneling moisture through the Caribbean.

Wouldn’t one expect to see less of a TUTT signature over the W ATL during a “typical” active/hyperactive year? The EC+UK blend suggests a lot of shear there.

[psyclone]

May = no way
June = too soon
July = too dry
August = ...um... not good enough to come up with a rhyme...but it's time...oh snap there it is!
we're getting close gang..

[Siker]

That tweet is actually the latest EC+UK blended outlook for ASO. The dry W ATL is forecast to be in place during ASO.

Guessing it's a combo of a northward-displaced TUTT plus prevailing high placement funneling moisture through the Caribbean.

Wouldn’t one expect to see less of a TUTT signature over the W ATL during a “typical” active/hyperactive year? The EC+UK blend suggests a lot of shear there.

Presumably no, if there is sufficient activity to the south/west to fuel significant outflow poleward across the W/C ATL (and note the enhanced precip right at the SE coast). But I’m not totally sure.

[AutoPenalti]

If anything, a TUTT would help ventilate a TC if positioned correctly...

[Shell Mound]

Guessing it's a combo of a northward-displaced TUTT plus prevailing high placement funneling moisture through the Caribbean.

Wouldn’t one expect to see less of a TUTT signature over the W ATL during a “typical” active/hyperactive year? The EC+UK blend suggests a lot of shear there.

Presumably no, if there is sufficient activity to the south/west to fuel significant outflow poleward across the W/C ATL (and note the enhanced precip right at the SE coast). But I’m not totally sure.

It looks like shear to me, because there is a branch of well-above-average precipitation that seemingly hits a brick wall just east of the Leeward Islands. That is definitely not related to outflow from convection. There seems to be a very strong TUTT anchored near/over the Leeward Islands. Everything between those islands and the Bahamas looks quite dry. The precipitation in the eastern Gulf and along the East Coast looks to be related to homegrown development. Does anyone know why the reliable EC+UK blend suggests such a strong W-ATL TUTT for ASO?

[toad strangler]

If anything, a TUTT would help ventilate a TC if positioned correctly...

This, a TUTT helped Irma blow up. I believe the system needs to be the SW of said TUTT, like Irma was.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1283488415577714693



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1283460074854211584



 https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1283380127137779713

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1283488415577714693
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1283460074854211584
https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1283380127137779713

I almost want to believe there's something happening in the background state that we don't know about.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1283488415577714693
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1283460074854211584
https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1283380127137779713

I almost want to believe there's something happening in the background state that we don't know about.

It is typical for -ENSO years to feature below average ACE in the Northern Pacific, often to lead to a very active Atlantic later. However 2020 is an extreme case with no hurricane strength TCs globally this month so far.

2010 is a prime example: very active Atlantic, near record quiet EPAC/WPAC.

[Monsoonjr99]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1283488415577714693
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1283460074854211584
https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1283380127137779713

I almost want to believe there's something happening in the background state that we don't know about.

Yes, it's called July.

It seems the Atlantic is heavily favored this year and the Pacific heavily suppressed. But for the moment, it's too early.

[StruThiO]

Unlike some detractors still clinging onto the notion that one needs significant MDR activity this time of year to get a hyperactive season in spite of numerous years such as 2004, 2010 and 2017 proving them wrong again and again, I recognize that we could not see gonzalo until September and still wind up with a hyperactive season.

The Pacific has been quiet because of the anomalous and robust sinking air that has become established from west of the Dateline to Peru. This sinking air is present because we are transitioning to la nina. As we all know, this favors an active back half of the atlantic hurricane season so I'm not sure why some insist on hand wringing over a lack of deep tropical activity in.... mid July? As if literally the last 4 seasons didnt prove back to back to back to back that what happens from june to august 20th DOES NOT MATTER

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1283488415577714693
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1283460074854211584
https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1283380127137779713

I almost want to believe there's something happening in the background state that we don't know about.

It is typical for -ENSO years to feature below average ACE in the Northern Pacific, often to lead to a very active Atlantic later. However 2020 is an extreme case with no hurricane strength TCs globally this month so far.

2010 is a prime example: very active Atlantic, near record quiet EPAC/WPAC.

Exactly, usually a quiet Pacific usually means an active Atlantic in the making. We are just in July so there's still the benefit of doubt that the Atlantic will start turning active as we get into August. If this would had been 4-6 weeks from now then I would had been talking about a possible repeat of 2013.

[FireRat]

May = no way
June = too soon
July = too dry
August = ...um... not good enough to come up with a rhyme...but it's time...oh snap there it is!
we're getting close gang..

Like some old timer sailors used to say over a hundred years ago:
August = Look out you must!

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1283488415577714693
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1283460074854211584
https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1283380127137779713

I almost want to believe there's something happening in the background state that we don't know about.

[StruThiO]

http://i.ibb.co/1vdv3rQ/peakofseason-sm.gif

[toad strangler]

I almost want to believe there's something happening in the background state that we don't know about.

It is typical for -ENSO years to feature below average ACE in the Northern Pacific, often to lead to a very active Atlantic later. However 2020 is an extreme case with no hurricane strength TCs globally this month so far.

2010 is a prime example: very active Atlantic, near record quiet EPAC/WPAC.

Exactly, usually a quiet Pacific usually means an active Atlantic in the making. We are just in July so there's still the benefit of doubt that the Atlantic will start turning active as we get into August. If this would had been 4-6 weeks from now then I would had been talking about a possible repeat of 2013.

THIS. Wake me up on 8/15.

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1283488415577714693
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1283460074854211584
https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1283380127137779713

I almost want to believe there's something happening in the background state that we don't know about.

http://i.ibb.co/1vdv3rQ/peakofseason-sm.gif

Wasn’t explicitly talking about the Atlantic.

Doesn’t help explain why every other basin is as a quiet as a mouse.

[Kingarabian]

I almost want to believe there's something happening in the background state that we don't know about.

http://i.ibb.co/1vdv3rQ/peakofseason-sm.gif

Wasn’t explicitly talking about the Atlantic.

Doesn’t help explain why every other basin is as a quiet as a mouse.

In cool-neutrals or developing La Nina it's perfectly fine and normal for the other basins (meaning the WPAC/EPAC) to be quiet.