2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Definitely a GFS bias spot…Careful

[Ianswfl]

Definitely a GFS bias spot…Careful

CMC, and GFS each run showing something similar. 18z ensembles more active as well, and timeline moved up a tad too. CPC also highlighting possible development mid to late month as well.

[mantis83]

Definitely a GFS bias spot…Careful

agreed! 12z euro not showing much at this point.....

[ronjon]

Definitely a GFS bias spot…Careful

agreed! 12z euro not showing much at this point.....

True. Even GFS and CMC take 10 days out to form low pressure. Something to watch in future model runs only because climatology spotlights this area and long range synoptics seem favorable for pressure to be lowering in this area.

[USTropics]

It takes a lot of ingredients to come together at the right time for the 12/18z GFS to verify, but it's what we would typically be looking for in a mid-late October Caribbean system. The real difference between the GFS and ECWMF is how far south the trough (pink) is able to extend (the GFS has this all the way into the NW Caribbean). This lowers pressure in the NW Caribbean, and we can see the turning of the CAG winds (highlighted in blue) that are occurring at this time frame. This slowly moves northward and we end up with cyclogenesis:


Compare this to the 12z ECMWF run around the same timeframe, and the trough is quicker, not nearly as positively tilted, and only digs down to about SFL. Also ridging is established all the way to the NW GOM (highlighted in green; centered more over Texas in the GFS run):


So I wouldn't say the GFS is creating a phantom system here, but it'll take precise timing of the CAG + orientation of the trough for it to verify.

[zzzh]

I'd keep an eye on the wave that will enter the Caribbean.

[MetroMike]

It takes a lot of ingredients to come together at the right time for the 12/18z GFS to verify, but it's what we would typically be looking for in a mid-late October Caribbean system. The real difference between the GFS and ECWMF is how far south the trough (pink) is able to extend (the GFS has this all the way into the NW Caribbean). This lowers pressure in the NW Caribbean, and we can see the turning of the CAG winds (highlighted in blue) that are occurring at this time frame. This slowly moves northward and we end up with cyclogenesis:
https://i.imgur.com/CwIeQca.png

Compare this to the 12z ECMWF run around the same timeframe, and the trough is quicker, not nearly as positively tilted, and only digs down to about SFL. Also ridging is established all the way to the NW GOM (highlighted in green; centered more over Texas in the GFS run):
https://i.imgur.com/3Igs3jm.png

So I wouldn't say the GFS is creating a phantom system here, but it'll take precise timing of the CAG + orientation of the trough for it to verify.

Ok I stand corrected as the Euro I normally see only goes out 240 hours. Not sure how you got that map

[CronkPSU]

It takes a lot of ingredients to come together at the right time for the 12/18z GFS to verify, but it's what we would typically be looking for in a mid-late October Caribbean system. The real difference between the GFS and ECWMF is how far south the trough (pink) is able to extend (the GFS has this all the way into the NW Caribbean). This lowers pressure in the NW Caribbean, and we can see the turning of the CAG winds (highlighted in blue) that are occurring at this time frame. This slowly moves northward and we end up with cyclogenesis:
https://i.imgur.com/CwIeQca.png


Compare this to the 12z ECMWF run around the same timeframe, and the trough is quicker, not nearly as positively tilted, and only digs down to about SFL. Also ridging is established all the way to the NW GOM (highlighted in green; centered more over Texas in the GFS run):
https://i.imgur.com/3Igs3jm.png

So I wouldn't say the GFS is creating a phantom system here, but it'll take precise timing of the CAG + orientation of the trough for it to verify.

Ok I stand corrected as the Euro I normally see only goes out 240 hours. Not sure how you got that map

You are not wrong, the Euro model only goes out 240 hours…he is comparing the gfs and euro model maps at 240 hours which is why you don’t see the system the GFS predicts later in its run

[CFLHurricane]

Definitely a GFS bias spot…Careful

agreed! 12z euro not showing much at this point.....[/quo

I’ve seen enough. Hurricane season 2023 is over for the Space Coast after the autumnal front moves through this weekend.

There was some nail biting with Lee’s early tracks, but this season has thankfully been fairly milquetoast for my area. Goodbye Hurricane season, hello open window weather

[blp]

The models continue to show a favorable shear for the end of the month. MJO will also be in the region. I think there is a good chance something will form. Again not a typical El Nino pattern.

EPS


GEFS


CFS

[Ianswfl]

The models continue to show a favorable shear for the end of the month. MJO will also be in the region. I think there is a good chance something will form. Again not a typical El Nino pattern.

EPS
https://i.ibb.co/f4vWwKw/eps-ashear-atl-61.png

GEFS
https://i.ibb.co/5KNZ6NV/gfs-ens-ashear-atl-65.png

CFS
https://i.ibb.co/ZBsXxMX/cfs-avg-ashear-Mean-atl-3.png

Both 12z gfs ensembles and Canadian ensembles have some big hurricane members down there late in the period.

[Ianswfl]

[Ianswfl]

00z gfs ensembles thinks it's mid sept with mdr storms and some long trackers including a major into south fl!

[Blown Away]

00z gfs ensembles thinks it's mid sept with mdr storms and some long trackers including a major into south fl!

GEFS very long range showing consistent action in the Caribbean/W Atlantic...

[Ianswfl]

00z gfs ensembles thinks it's mid sept with mdr storms and some long trackers including a major into south fl!

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wjP7y1Pz/3b3196bd-b6bb-4f83-97ec-2f24ca18a843.gif [/url]
GEFS very long range showing consistent action in the Caribbean/W Atlantic...

Strongest signal all year. Several members next sunday powerful hurricane for swfl area then following week more members towards fl from separate system. Wilma like tracks climo favored tracks.

Waters will be cooler this way by then but moving fast then it could still pack a punch

[MetroMike]

00z gfs ensembles thinks it's mid sept with mdr storms and some long trackers including a major into south fl!

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wjP7y1Pz/3b3196bd-b6bb-4f83-97ec-2f24ca18a843.gif [/url]
GEFS very long range showing consistent action in the Caribbean/W Atlantic...

Strongest signal all year. Several members next sunday powerful hurricane for swfl area then following week more members towards fl from separate system. Wilma like tracks climo favored tracks.

Waters will be cooler this way by then but moving fast then it could still pack a punch

The 12Z GEPS is much more populated than the 00Z run in the Caribbean with action around the 18th and another around the 24th of Oct.

[zzzh]

Watch for the strong wave enter the Caribbean in day 9-10 range.

[Ianswfl]

Watch for the strong wave enter the Caribbean in day 9-10 range.

Operation Euro shows that wave entering. Fronts coming down so something to watch in the western Caribbean

[SFLcane]

Im watching the pieces but too much uncertainty still.

[Ianswfl]

Im watching the pieces but too much uncertainty still.

https://i.postimg.cc/bw0RbcqB/IMG-7702.gif

pattern looks troffy for Oct. Anything that makes it far enough west in the Caribbean will get sucked up north. Question is it the Michelle type path or Wilma type path.