2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Visioen]

May = no way
June = too soon
July = too dry
August = ...um... not good enough to come up with a rhyme...but it's time...oh snap there it is!
we're getting close gang..

August = bye bye dust

[StruThiO]

Doesn’t help explain why every other basin is as a quiet as a mouse.

[Visioen]

The quietness of the Pacific is very concerning for the upcoming Atlantic season.

[AutoPenalti]

Doesn’t help explain why every other basin is as a quiet as a mouse.

https://i.imgur.com/c5XdWWH.png

Thank you, this helps.

[StruThiO]

Thank you, this helps.

No problem. Looks like the Atlantic could be the king this year.

[Nuno]

Unlike some detractors still clinging onto the notion that one needs significant MDR activity this time of year to get a hyperactive season in spite of numerous years such as 2004, 2010 and 2017 proving them wrong again and again, I recognize that we could not see gonzalo until September and still wind up with a hyperactive season.

The Pacific has been quiet because of the anomalous and robust sinking air that has become established from west of the Dateline to Peru. This sinking air is present because we are transitioning to la nina. As we all know, this favors an active back half of the atlantic hurricane season so I'm not sure why some insist on hand wringing over a lack of deep tropical activity in.... mid July? As if literally the last 4 seasons didnt prove back to back to back to back that what happens from june to august 20th DOES NOT MATTER

To add to this, it isn't like the season has been quiet! They may not be sexy, but these mid-latitude storms show me how potent the overall basin's environment is, and normal July factors like SAL aren't a reason to suddenly doubt the rest of the season.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283737670963920897

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bnorcrosswplg/status/1283739823338127366

[SFLcane]

If the current pattern holds (maybe) and the dry air lets up (again maybe) you're probably looking at a 1996/2004 repeat with multiple US landfalls of some type.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283124998358605827

:eek:

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283737670963920897?s=21

The July ECMWF ensembles for ASO strongly suggest hurricane threats from the Carolinas to New England, along with homegrown ‘canes in the Gulf. FL is mostly “off the hook,” even in October, excluding a small portion of the NW Panhandle. Interestingly, the ensembles suggest a quiet Caribbean. Additionally, note that there seems to be a strong TUTT over and just north of the Leeward Islands, in the vicinity of the southernmost Sargasso Sea, given that there is a “gap” in the frequency of days with wind gusts of >70 mph (61 knots). The overall setup looks rather similar to that of 1954, which featured three hurricane impacts, including two majors (the notorious Carol and Hazel), from the Carolinas to New England, along with some homegrown development in the Gulf. Interestingly, 1954 both featured weak La Niña conditions and either a) did not have much of a CV season or b) the CV systems that did form curved OTS and presumably went undetected, given the pre-satellite era.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283124998358605827

:eek:

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283737670963920897?s=21

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdC9pDCWsAQXn75?format=jpg&name=large
The July ECMWF ensembles for ASO strongly suggest hurricane threats from the Carolinas to New England, along with homegrown ‘canes in the Gulf. FL is mostly “off the hook,” even in October, excluding a small portion of the NW Panhandle. Interestingly, the ensembles suggest a quiet Caribbean. Additionally, note that there seems to be a strong TUTT over and just north of the Leeward Islands, in the vicinity of the southernmost Sargasso Sea, given that there is a “gap” in the frequency of days with wind gusts of >70 mph (61 knots). The overall setup looks rather similar to that of 1954, which featured three hurricane impacts, including two majors (the notorious Carol and Hazel), from the Carolinas to New England, along with some homegrown development in the Gulf. Interestingly, 1954 both featured weak La Niña conditions and either a) did not have much of a CV season or b) the CV systems that did form curved OTS and presumably went undetected, given the pre-satellite era.

Why do you keep saying that Florida is off the hook? Florida, especially South Florida along with the Carolinas, and the North-Central Gulf Coast are hotspots for U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

If we don’t get a hurricane by November 30th then yes we’re off the hook.

[AutoPenalti]

If anything Florida has the highest chance of some sort of landfall, compared to ‘18 and ‘19.

[cycloneye]

The lid in Atlantic will open soon.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1283763318327574531

[CyclonicFury]

Nowhere is "off the hook" at this stage.

[Evan_Wilson]

Florida and truly the entire East Coast is no where near off the hook. It's 2020, nothing at this point would surprise me this year. Indicators are obviously pointing to an above average and possibly hyperactive season. Steering currents are extremely hard to forecast, but based off initial ridge placement it does appear that tropical development may have an increased chance of landfalling as opposed to typical years.

[SFLcane]

Florida is off the hook? Come on really your a good poster and provide good insight here. I just want to mention once more if the pattern currently in place persists your looking at a 1996/2004 repeat with multiple US landfalls. A wait and see for now. Seeing those strong waves on the Euro with those kind of ULACs overhead trucking west is pretty ominous.

[toad strangler]

Shellmound is off the hook

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283124998358605827

:eek:

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283737670963920897?s=21

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdC9pDCWsAQXn75?format=jpg&name=large
The July ECMWF ensembles for ASO strongly suggest hurricane threats from the Carolinas to New England, along with homegrown ‘canes in the Gulf. FL is mostly “off the hook,” even in October, excluding a small portion of the NW Panhandle. Interestingly, the ensembles suggest a quiet Caribbean. Additionally, note that there seems to be a strong TUTT over and just north of the Leeward Islands, in the vicinity of the southernmost Sargasso Sea, given that there is a “gap” in the frequency of days with wind gusts of >70 mph (61 knots). The overall setup looks rather similar to that of 1954, which featured three hurricane impacts, including two majors (the notorious Carol and Hazel), from the Carolinas to New England, along with some homegrown development in the Gulf. Interestingly, 1954 both featured weak La Niña conditions and either a) did not have much of a CV season or b) the CV systems that did form curved OTS and presumably went undetected, given the pre-satellite era.

You mention that Florida is "off-the-hook" even in October, however the image right above this contradicts your theory.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283124998358605827

:eek:

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283737670963920897?s=21

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdC9pDCWsAQXn75?format=jpg&name=large
The July ECMWF ensembles for ASO strongly suggest hurricane threats from the Carolinas to New England, along with homegrown ‘canes in the Gulf. FL is mostly “off the hook,” even in October, excluding a small portion of the NW Panhandle. Interestingly, the ensembles suggest a quiet Caribbean. Additionally, note that there seems to be a strong TUTT over and just north of the Leeward Islands, in the vicinity of the southernmost Sargasso Sea, given that there is a “gap” in the frequency of days with wind gusts of >70 mph (61 knots). The overall setup looks rather similar to that of 1954, which featured three hurricane impacts, including two majors (the notorious Carol and Hazel), from the Carolinas to New England, along with some homegrown development in the Gulf. Interestingly, 1954 both featured weak La Niña conditions and either a) did not have much of a CV season or b) the CV systems that did form curved OTS and presumably went undetected, given the pre-satellite era.

Why do you keep saying that Florida is off the hook? Florida, especially South Florida along with the Carolinas, and the North-Central Gulf Coast are hotspots for U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

If we don’t get a hurricane by November 30th then yes we’re off the hook.

The image I posted clearly indicates that the ECMWF ensemble members evince a strong consensus as to the tracks and formations of hurricanes in 2020. Note that hurricane-force winds are concentrated from the Carolinas northward and in the Gulf of Mexico, primarily from South TX to AL. Florida is right in the middle and seems relatively unscathed. Also, the chart I posted covers ASO and shows practically nothing in a) the Caribbean and b) between the Leeward Islands and (most of) the Bahamas. This means the ECMWF ensembles are implying unfavourable conditions for hurricanes in the Caribbean and/or the western MDR, with systems tending to attain hurricane status in the subtropics, that is, the GoM or along the Eastern Seaboard, as in 1954, a year that devastated the Carolinas and New England, but left FL unscathed. And the ECMWF ensembles suggest that this year we may not have a late season in the Caribbean, for some reason. I would like to know why the ECMWF ensembles and some other models suggest such a strong TUTT near the Leeward Islands, as well as why the ECMWF ensembles in particular show such an inactive Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283124998358605827

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdC9pDCWsAQXn75?format=jpg&name=large
The July ECMWF ensembles for ASO strongly suggest hurricane threats from the Carolinas to New England, along with homegrown ‘canes in the Gulf. FL is mostly “off the hook,” even in October, excluding a small portion of the NW Panhandle. Interestingly, the ensembles suggest a quiet Caribbean. Additionally, note that there seems to be a strong TUTT over and just north of the Leeward Islands, in the vicinity of the southernmost Sargasso Sea, given that there is a “gap” in the frequency of days with wind gusts of >70 mph (61 knots). The overall setup looks rather similar to that of 1954, which featured three hurricane impacts, including two majors (the notorious Carol and Hazel), from the Carolinas to New England, along with some homegrown development in the Gulf. Interestingly, 1954 both featured weak La Niña conditions and either a) did not have much of a CV season or b) the CV systems that did form curved OTS and presumably went undetected, given the pre-satellite era.

Why do you keep saying that Florida is off the hook? Florida, especially South Florida along with the Carolinas, and the North-Central Gulf Coast are hotspots for U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

If we don’t get a hurricane by November 30th then yes we’re off the hook.

The image I posted clearly indicates that the ECMWF ensemble members evince a strong consensus as to the tracks and formations of hurricanes in 2020. Note that hurricane-force winds are concentrated from the Carolinas northward and in the Gulf of Mexico, primarily from South TX to AL. Florida is right in the middle and seems relatively unscathed. Also, the chart I posted covers ASO and shows practically nothing in a) the Caribbean and b) between the Leeward Islands and (most of) the Bahamas. This means the ECMWF ensembles are implying unfavourable conditions for hurricanes in the Caribbean and/or the western MDR, with systems tending to attain hurricane status in the subtropics, that is, the GoM or along the Eastern Seaboard, as in 1954, a year that devastated the Carolinas and New England, but left FL unscathed. And the ECMWF ensembles suggest that this year we may not have a late season in the Caribbean, for some reason. I would like to know why the ECMWF ensembles and some other models suggest such a strong TUTT near the Leeward Islands, as well as why the ECMWF ensembles in particular show such an inactive Caribbean.

All kidding aside, you are analyzing these VERBATIM and there is nothing wrong with that. I kid. Good luck with your ever changing theories