2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

New updated CS3 steering +Nao is a biggie... One word ooooof

[cycloneye]

C3S July forecast.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547210445886455814




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547210449573265409

[skyline385]

C3S July forecast.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547210445886455814




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547210449573265409

As expected since both EURO and UKMET trended towards drier MDR and wetter Gulf. Average ACE of those analog years is 162, pretty close to the forecasts for this season.

[aspen]

C3S July forecast.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547210445886455814

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547210449573265409

Not sure what to make of these trends when it comes to MDR activity. A trend towards 2020-like precipitation anomalies might suggest another west-based season, but other similar years in terms of ENSO and IOD phase/strength (1996, 1998, and 2010) also had moderately to very active MDRs. To further complicate things, 2022’s MDR SSTAs are nowhere near the levels of 2020 (west-based) or 2010 (MDR-dominant). From my perspective, it seems like activity could go either way this year.

[cycloneye]

Webb goes way back to find an analog for 2022.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1547226999810232326

[Category5Kaiju]

It's really interesting to see how this is looking like one of the first seasons at least in recent times where the subtropics were that cold and (implicitly I suppose?) unfavorable for high amounts of activity there. I remember how in many recent years there were rumblings and complaints of the MDR being too dry or stable; whether that is true or not, I wonder if this year could see a change in that kind of behavior, at least with the subtropics now not really a competitive factor in terms of where activity happens primarily.

With not many subtropical shorties happening this year at least so far, something tells me that deep tropical activity may be more favored this year. Plus, we're already seeing juicy waves in the MDR even during a suppressive phase, so hmm.

[Stormybajan]

Long-range GEFS lacking in activity to the EPS weeklies

https://media.giphy.com/media/J8dKBhP7QXeLmBCepQ/giphy.gif

Its definitely very strange seeing the longrange 00z GEFS basically picking up on NOTHING through August 16th, however give it to the end of July the signal definitely will be in the uptick because it literally has to (August starts peak season in the Atlantic) . However one theory I have for such inactivity on the July 12 00z run maybe the MJO bias GEFS has? I mean if we were to compare the 850 hPa Zonal Wind anomaly ..its literally night and day between the GEFS and the EPS for the MDR. They should become more aligned July 31st and the models should be sniffing out some activity by then , bet on it.

[skyline385]

Long-range GEFS lacking in activity to the EPS weeklies

https://media.giphy.com/media/J8dKBhP7QXeLmBCepQ/giphy.gif

Its definitely very strange seeing the longrange 00z GEFS basically picking up on NOTHING through August 16th, however give it to the end of July the signal definitely will in the uptick because it literally has to (August starts peak season in the Atlantic) . However one theory I have for such inactivity on the July 12 00z run maybe the MJO bias GEFS has? I mean if we were to compare the 850 hPa Zonal Wind anomaly ..its literally night and day between the GEFS and the EPS for the MDR. They should become more aligned July 31st and the models should be sniffing out some activity by then , bet on it.

Yes the GFS isn’t very good with MJO phasing, i am assuming that in a couple of weeks as the MJO starts moving out and the GFS is initialized using it, we will still start seeing activity in the ensembles. This week has been weird for both the EPS and GEFS, particularly the EPS VPot plots.

[cycloneye]

Interesting good discussions that continue and that is the purpose to have every year the indicators thread.

Mother nature will dictate in ASO, what kind of peak of season 2022 in terms of tracks and how much activity will occur and what analog year the 2002 season will rival, but the most important thing is to be prepared because no matter how many form, it only takes one to do all the harm to a place.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1546890934608076800

[Kingarabian]

Models showing some pretty good AEWs throughout the last 2 weeks of July. Nowdays, can't take global models seriously 96 hours out. So best to take the forecasts wirh a day by day basis.

[Blown Away]

Modeling/Indicators/Steering, every year it all follows the same cycle below:

May-June: Modeling develops to many early season lows.
Mid July: Storm2k members expect the modeling to begin sniffing the start of the active part of the season and we get crickets.
Mid July - Mid August: Storm2k cancel season posts are raging; Member emotional breakdowns; Modeling is a failure.
Mid August - Mid October: Storm2k members spend all their time now in the Storm2k Active Storms/Invest board tracking systems and are fired up.
Mid October - Nov 30th: Members are exhausted tracking storms.
Dec-May: Cycle begins again.

Every year same thing and of course I'm kidding.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Long-range GEFS lacking in activity to the EPS weeklies

https://media.giphy.com/media/J8dKBhP7QXeLmBCepQ/giphy.gif

Its definitely very strange seeing the longrange 00z GEFS basically picking up on NOTHING through August 16th, however give it to the end of July the signal definitely will in the uptick because it literally has to (August starts peak season in the Atlantic) . However one theory I have for such inactivity on the July 12 00z run maybe the MJO bias GEFS has? I mean if we were to compare the 850 hPa Zonal Wind anomaly ..its literally night and day between the GEFS and the EPS for the MDR. They should become more aligned July 31st and the models should be sniffing out some activity by then , bet on it.
https://i.postimg.cc/fyJP59N7/GEFS-Zonal-winds-06z-13-Jul22.png
https://i.postimg.cc/wvB4Tm7K/EPS-Zonal-winds-00z-13-Jul22.png

Yes the GFS isn’t very good with MJO phasing, i am assuming that in a couple of weeks as the MJO starts moving out and the GFS is initialized using it, we will still start seeing activity in the ensembles. This week has been weird for both the EPS and GEFS, particularly the EPS VPot plots.

The American model suite for dynamical MJO forecasts are wildly out of line with almost all the others. The ECMWF has the MJO going straight over to 8 through 1 and 2 which are favorable phases. The GFS is all over the place. That could be why it isn't seeing much. It has had a phase 4.5.6 bias for a while now. I'm surprised someone has not worked on that. Anywho...if you have a cooler than normal subtropics in regard to the MDR, you are going to get upward motion in the MDR to some degree as pressures lower as the pressure rise in the subtropics. Even in the current negative phases you are seeing robust tropical waves making their way across.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Modeling/Indicators/Steering, every year it all follows the same cycle below:

May-June: Modeling develops to many early season lows.
Mid July: Storm2k members expect the modeling to begin sniffing the start of the active part of the season and we get crickets.
Mid July - Mid August: Storm2k cancel season posts are raging; Member emotional breakdowns; Modeling is a failure.
Mid August - Mid October: Storm2k members spend all their time now in the Storm2k Active Storms/Invest board tracking systems and are fired up.
Mid October - Nov 30th: Members are exhausted tracking storms.
Dec-May: Cycle begins again.

Every year same thing and of course I'm kidding.

Addition to your August to mid October...every hurricane has a pinhole eye or is going to be Annular

[skyline385]

1999 might actually be a decent one from all the ones being discussed so far, similar ENSO state, had a average start, suppresed July to mid-August and then took off to end with 177 ACE.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1546985456167895040

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/supercane7/status/1547353655380156416

[cycloneye]

I have not seen for a while in this thread discussion about the West African Monsoon that is one of the key factors that causes a season to be active or not depending on what is the status of it. How is it right now?

[weeniepatrol]

I have not seen for a while in this thread discussion about the West African Monsoon that is one of the key factors that causes a season to be active or not depending on what is the status of it. How is it right now?

Very strong, regardless of chosen parameter

[cycloneye]

I have not seen for a while in this thread discussion about the West African Monsoon that is one of the key factors that causes a season to be active or not depending on what is the status of it. How is it right now?

Very strong, regardless of chosen parameter

https://i.imgur.com/Ee44UBU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/LTZX1Pr.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Ime0WJ5.gif

That means the parade of strong waves will begin soon. Thank you.

[skyline385]

I have not seen for a while in this thread discussion about the West African Monsoon that is one of the key factors that causes a season to be active or not depending on what is the status of it. How is it right now?

Very strong, regardless of chosen parameter

https://i.imgur.com/Ee44UBU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/LTZX1Pr.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Ime0WJ5.gif

That means the parade of strong waves will begin soon. Thank you.

Per CPC, the rains have been mixed with some areas being wet and some dry. Also been reading recently that the -IOD has somewhat suppressed the WAM at the moment.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hazard.pdf