2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[zzzh]

12z EPS. Much stronger signal on the system.

[zzzh]

It looks like that the wave currently behind 92L is the one.

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/h7jZSH0.png
12z EPS. Much stronger signal on the system.

911

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/h7jZSH0.png
12z EPS. Much stronger signal on the system.

Won’t make it past 70w likely but eastern Caribbean should watch.

[Ianswfl]

12z gfs ensembles were quiet but the 18z is active again next weekend brings a major into the keys and 10000 islands and a cat1 member into ft. Myers.

Seems something the third week of oct and possibly last week of oct also will have something brewing down there. Water temps are explosive down there right now due to lack of cloud cover. The key is the timing of the fronts.

Water temps around the keys will be low 80s probably next weekend or just around 80 for swfl. Still warm enough for a hurricane just not your ian type monsters.

Also seems we get a lag now. Like everything gets shifted a week to two weeks later in the atl now. So late oct is more like mid oct.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Amazed how many lows continue to swirl in the Central Atlantic.

[Ianswfl]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/W423HzkK/574d0501-a133-4dd5-9314-08c226787843.gif [/url]
06z GFS... Amazed how many lows continue to swirl in the Central Atlantic.

The models still think it's mid sept! Better hope the gfs ensembles are right. If the high is any stronger we might have a cv threat around here! Kate 85 hit from thr east in late Nov. Don't say never!

[Jr0d]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/W423HzkK/574d0501-a133-4dd5-9314-08c226787843.gif [/url]
06z GFS... Amazed how many lows continue to swirl in the Central Atlantic.

The models still think it's mid sept! Better hope the gfs ensembles are right. If the high is any stronger we might have a cv threat around here! Kate 85 hit from thr east in late Nov. Don't say never!

The Yankee hurricane of 1935 is an interesting track for a November hurricane too. Never say never!

That said im still keeping an eye on the NW Caribbean. The CMC has dropped the hurricane moving into Florida...however there is certainly a signal from the ensembles with something maybe starting to brew late next week.

[Ianswfl]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/W423HzkK/574d0501-a133-4dd5-9314-08c226787843.gif [/url]
06z GFS... Amazed how many lows continue to swirl in the Central Atlantic.

The models still think it's mid sept! Better hope the gfs ensembles are right. If the high is any stronger we might have a cv threat around here! Kate 85 hit from thr east in late Nov. Don't say never!

The Yankee hurricane of 1935 is an interesting track for a November hurricane too. Never say never!

That said im still keeping an eye on the NW Caribbean. The CMC has dropped the hurricane moving into Florida...however there is certainly a signal from the ensembles with something maybe starting to brew late next week.

Twice too. End of next weekend, and then at the end of the month another storm that could be a threat.

With these fronts the Gulf off SWFL will drop to 80 degrees, but a storm moving north will only slowly weaken. If we get a cat4 or 5 monster in the near 90 degree waters south of Cuba it could still be a cat3 at landfall if it were to make it here and moving fast like a Wilma. Sure, we won't get an Ian monster with the cooler waters but the threat of a cat3 could be into Nov this year with the Caribbean so hot. The CMC only drops it due to strong high pressure and gets burried into MX.

Oh and the short range 240 hour Euro ensembles are out. There is one nasty member for the wave off Africa moving WNW near cat5. Some other members more south. The full 360 hr euro ensembles will be interesting.

the 240 hr euro ensembles also slightly hinting at the Western Car and maybe even another crossover system late in the period.

[Ianswfl]

Cat4 into Key West and then Naples. What I was talking about the far southern Gulf and Caribbean will still be warm enough for a fast moving system even after the front.

[ElectricStorm]

Cat4 into Key West and then Naples. What I was talking about the far southern Gulf and Caribbean will still be warm enough for a fast moving system even after the front.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023101200/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_54.png

Hour 318 though, I wouldn't be concerned about anything yet that's way into fantasy land

[Ianswfl]

Cat4 into Key West and then Naples. What I was talking about the far southern Gulf and Caribbean will still be warm enough for a fast moving system even after the front.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023101200/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_54.png

Hour 318 though, I wouldn't be concerned about anything yet that's way into fantasy land

Canadian ensembles going bonkers down there too, strongest signal I've seen in awhile.

Euro also has 94l in the carribean now

[toad strangler]

Models continue to show a stout front that will clear the FL peninsula and usher in the coolest temps and lowest humidity S FL has seen in many months. The 0z Euro doesn’t show even far S FL reaching 80 post front again until late next week. Michael Lowry talks about this and its implications in his latest update… his context is for CONUS only obviously.

South Florida’s first real cold front of fall could signal a tapering off of tropical threats

We’ll be eyeing what looks to be the passage our first real fall cold front through South Florida by Sunday into Monday. Not only will this usher in some refreshingly dry and cooler weather, but it’ll kick us into dry season, a point in hurricane season we begin to see storm threats subside for South Florida. Tropical threats still happen even into November, so don’t toss out your hurricane supplies just yet. That said, making it to dry season without a South Florida hurricane is an important step to closing out hurricane season.

[DunedinDave]

Yeah this cold front could quash any big storms coming into the Gulf. Here in Pinellas we may not even hit 70 degrees a few days next week with lows in the 50s. Water temps should begin coming down rapidly. Not saying a storm can’t form in the Carib but it won’t blow up in Gulf like Idalia. Would be welcome rain though as a TS.

[fllawyer]

Cat4 into Key West and then Naples. What I was talking about the far southern Gulf and Caribbean will still be warm enough for a fast moving system even after the front.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023101200/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_54.png

Literally 13 days away. And seems the models keep pushing back development on these supposed storms. Two weeks ago, the GFS models were frequently forecasting strong storms into FL peninsula for this week. That obviously didn’t pan out, and with coming fronts I’m not seeing how this has any better chance of verifying.

[SFLcane]

Models continue to show a stout front that will clear the FL peninsula and usher in the coolest temps and lowest humidity S FL has seen in many months. The 0z Euro doesn’t show even far S FL reaching 80 post front again until late next week. Michael Lowry talks about this and its implications in his latest update… his context is for CONUS only obviously.

South Florida’s first real cold front of fall could signal a tapering off of tropical threats

We’ll be eyeing what looks to be the passage our first real fall cold front through South Florida by Sunday into Monday. Not only will this usher in some refreshingly dry and cooler weather, but it’ll kick us into dry season, a point in hurricane season we begin to see storm threats subside for South Florida. Tropical threats still happen even into November, so don’t toss out your hurricane supplies just yet. That said, making it to dry season without a South Florida hurricane is an important step to closing out hurricane season.

1- Hmmm.. Honestly don't plan on a dry season across the Florida Peninsula we are in for a boat load of rain and likely some severe wx to thanks to the el nino screaming jet in the gulf blowing across the state.
2- Two the door will surely remain open for SFL though october as these fronts can always be potential triggers for something in the caribbean which i will add will stay quite favorable into Nov it looks like.

Here is the ECM/UK superblend.. You cant even make out florida.



Now back on topic..

[Ianswfl]

Models continue to show a stout front that will clear the FL peninsula and usher in the coolest temps and lowest humidity S FL has seen in many months. The 0z Euro doesn’t show even far S FL reaching 80 post front again until late next week. Michael Lowry talks about this and its implications in his latest update… his context is for CONUS only obviously.

South Florida’s first real cold front of fall could signal a tapering off of tropical threats

We’ll be eyeing what looks to be the passage our first real fall cold front through South Florida by Sunday into Monday. Not only will this usher in some refreshingly dry and cooler weather, but it’ll kick us into dry season, a point in hurricane season we begin to see storm threats subside for South Florida. Tropical threats still happen even into November, so don’t toss out your hurricane supplies just yet. That said, making it to dry season without a South Florida hurricane is an important step to closing out hurricane season.

1- Hmmm.. Honestly don't plan on a dry season across the Florida Peninsula we are in for a boat load of rain and likely some severe wx to thanks to the el nino screaming jet in the gulf blowing across the state.
2- Two the door will surely remain open for SFL though october as these fronts can always be potential triggers for something in the caribbean which i will add will stay quite favorable into Nov it looks like.

Here is the ECM/UK superblend.. You cant even make out florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/6Qngz6cS/mmmm.jpg

Now back on topic..

Kinda on topic but that map includes dec. Notice the extra precip and the shape of it in the northern Caribbean. Is it possible that's an early dec system? Could it be with super warm temps down there and the jet stream that south fl gets a rare dec tropical storm? Ft myers got hit by a tropical atorm on dec 1st once. Heck even in feb fl got hit once from down there and feb 2012 nearly had a ts form near the keys.

[ThunderForce]

12 GEFS Run.

Looks like a slight uptick on Western Caribbean activity that starts around F150 (I see about 4-6 members getting into the Gulf on the current run), but it appears that more ensemble members for 94L start taking a northwestward heading before getting to the Leeward and Windward Islands sooner compared to before.

[toad strangler]

Models continue to show a stout front that will clear the FL peninsula and usher in the coolest temps and lowest humidity S FL has seen in many months. The 0z Euro doesn’t show even far S FL reaching 80 post front again until late next week. Michael Lowry talks about this and its implications in his latest update… his context is for CONUS only obviously.

South Florida’s first real cold front of fall could signal a tapering off of tropical threats

We’ll be eyeing what looks to be the passage our first real fall cold front through South Florida by Sunday into Monday. Not only will this usher in some refreshingly dry and cooler weather, but it’ll kick us into dry season, a point in hurricane season we begin to see storm threats subside for South Florida. Tropical threats still happen even into November, so don’t toss out your hurricane supplies just yet. That said, making it to dry season without a South Florida hurricane is an important step to closing out hurricane season.

1- Hmmm.. Honestly don't plan on a dry season across the Florida Peninsula we are in for a boat load of rain and likely some severe wx to thanks to the el nino screaming jet in the gulf blowing across the state.
2- Two the door will surely remain open for SFL though october as these fronts can always be potential triggers for something in the caribbean which i will add will stay quite favorable into Nov it looks like.

Here is the ECM/UK superblend.. You cant even make out florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/6Qngz6cS/mmmm.jpg

Now back on topic..

The context Lowry was using speaks to the possible near term onset of dry season which is a yearly occurrence regardless of ENSO cycle, and the significance of going without a hurricane to that point. Obviously said dry season can be quite wet later on in the calendar year into the depths of winter in the grip of a significant El Nino. The GFS and Euro are in near lock step with this into late next week shows how significant the impact from this coming front will be all the way into late next week.

[Ianswfl]

https://i.imgur.com/kGfAjKq.png
12 GEFS Run.

Looks like a slight uptick on Western Caribbean activity that starts around F150 (I see about 4-6 members getting into the Gulf on the current run), but it appears that more ensemble members for 94L start taking a northwestward heading before getting to the Leeward and Windward Islands sooner compared to before.

GFS ensembles still wants to favor something around Southwest FL around next sunday. Still has that major hurricane member but also other members which are more weaker systems.

Euro is running right now and has 94l a cat3 and further west than other models. Looks like PR at risk.

Edit a strong cat3 hit.

Personally I think the euro is too aggressive and this ends up in the central Caribbean and weaker waiting longer to develop.