2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[hurricanes1234]

He said the low instability is caused a very dry ITCZ this month Didn't seem so to me

Agreed, I think it's partly because of the MJO being in an extremely suppressed phase over the Western hemisphere for the last 2-3 weeks but that's starting to subside and the enhanced phase is expected to be here soon.

Even on a scale as small as my backyard, you could tell the atmosphere is slowly starting to wake up again. Trade winds aren't consistently strong like they were up until last week and just this morning, they were almost nonexistent for the first time in a while. Not surprisingly around midday, we had a strong heat-driven thunderstorm with lots of lightning.

I feel like it's been a while since winds were that light here in the daytime, maybe since the last MJO pulse at the start of July. To be fair, we do have the ITCZ and a tropical wave near us at the moment but the tropical waves in the last 2 weeks have been mostly feeble and short-lived, speeding along in the trade winds and only producing brief rainfall. You can tell that things are gradually becoming more favourable again, at least in terms of rainfall, which is probably thanks to the suppressed MJO subsiding.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also keep in mind that you could easily have a high ACE storm that isn't like some sort of powerful storm in the MDR; Matthew, the 1932 Cuba Hurricane, Dean, and 2005 Emily are examples of this. They remained somewhat weak over the MDR, but once they entered the Caribbean, they became quite strong and remained that way for quite a bit.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Let’s see how that prediction verifies come November 30, which I think will age like milk. If the tropical Atlantic is so stable, why did we have several MDR invests in June and a (fast-moving) July MDR/Caribbean hurricane? If the Atlantic were really that stable Elsa wouldn’t have formed and the invests wouldn’t have even existed most likely. I can guarantee there will be at least some long trackers in the MDR and Caribbean this year. Everyone suddenly is downcasting as usual just because of a suppressed CCKW moving through which should be gone soon, and then we’ll really see things lighten up in a few weeks.

Elsa was never really well-organized. It struggled the whole way. You should not classify me as "downcasting", when I'm predicting 19 named storms and a significantly enhanced risk of a major impact on the Gulf and East Coast this year. I'm just saying that systems will likely struggle until they get out of the Tropical Atlantic.

The Tropical Atlantic seems to have "stabilized" after the 2017 season. Storms have generally struggled there in 2018, 2019, and last year. I think it's due to dry, sinking air. Doesn't matter if you boil the water beneath a stable atmosphere, it can't generate hurricanes as easily.

I think his point regarding Elsa was that it was still exceptionally anomalous because, well, it was an MDR/Caribbean hurricane in early July. In any other typical year it likely would not have existed period, which is telling. Any sort of early MDR activity like that is almost always a sign of a favorable base state in the Atlantic basin overall.

[CyclonicFury]

Just because the MDR is dead and stable now doesn't mean it will be that way all season. Elsa did struggle, yes, but the fact it became a hurricane in the deep tropics in early July was impressive and extremely rare. It survived the entire trek from the MDR to the US as at least a TS, which doesn't happen very often. Even in some relatively cool MDR years we sometimes will still see a strong storm in the MDR. I'm not expecting this season to be as active as 2020, or as intense as 2004 or 2017, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that we get at least one powerful MDR longtracker.

The MDR can take a long time to get going, and it's pretty important to note that 2017, despite being as intense as it was, did not have a hurricane in the MDR until Irma on August 31. The real Cabo Verde season will likely begin in earnest in about 3-4 weeks, but the strongest MDR storms are usually in September.

[Category5Kaiju]

Elsa was never really well-organized. It struggled the whole way. You should not classify me as "downcasting", when I'm predicting 19 named storms and a significantly enhanced risk of a major impact on the Gulf and East Coast this year. I'm just saying that systems will likely struggle until they get out of the Tropical Atlantic.

The Tropical Atlantic seems to have "stabilized" after the 2017 season. Storms have generally struggled there in 2018, 2019, and last year. I think it's due to dry, sinking air. Doesn't matter if you boil the water beneath a stable atmosphere, it can't generate hurricanes as easily.

I think his point regarding Elsa was that it was still exceptionally anomalous because, well, it was an MDR/Caribbean hurricane in early July. In any other typical year it likely would not have existed period, which is telling. Any sort of early MDR activity like that is almost always a sign of a favorable base state in the Atlantic basin overall.

To back up your point, we have had several good examples of very active and memorable years, 1964, 1969, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, and 2017 to name a few (maybe 2010 can be here too despite it not being very impactful as it was still very active with MDR focused activity) that featured zero MDR hurricanes in July.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1419731820804034564

[cycloneye]

My goodness is July.

[captainbarbossa19]

Wow. This list is so accurate. I wrote this list in 2019 everyone.

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

Edit: Look where we are now. Right around August 1st. Come on people.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just for funsies, here is my envisionment of a "season-cancel" proof hypothetical future season.

1. A weak La Nina is predicted in April as very likely to occur by the year's end. Atlantic hurricane enthusiasts are excited.
2. 2 pre-season MDR tropical storms form in May.
3. In mid June, a Category 3 hurricane hits the Gulf Coast at max strength. By late month, the D storm forms as a tropical storm in the open Atlantic.
4. In early July, two tropical storms in the Caribbean and a Category 2 hurricane in the MDR ocur. By late July, a Category 5 hurricane that becomes a 165 mph storm and beats Emily 2005 in strength decimates various places in the West Atlantic.
5. The season continues nonstop in August. 6 storms occur in total, with another Category 5 in the Gulf mid-month and a Category 4 landfall on the Eastern Seaboard by late month.
6. SON keep the season alive and active, generating numerous landfalls and impacts. One December tropical storm occurs in the open ocean. In total, 31 named storms, while 16 hurricanes and 8 majors form. The Storm2k indicators thread for that year reaches a whopping 1,000 pages long.

[AlphaToOmega]

Just for funsies, here is my envisionment of a "season-cancel" proof hypothetical future season.

1. A weak La Nina is predicted in April as very likely to occur by the year's end. Atlantic hurricane enthusiasts are excited.
2. 2 pre-season MDR tropical storms form in May.
3. In mid June, a Category 3 hurricane hits the Gulf Coast at max strength. By late month, the D storm forms as a tropical storm in the open Atlantic.
4. In early July, two tropical storms in the Caribbean and a Category 2 hurricane in the MDR ocur. By late July, a Category 5 hurricane that becomes a 165 mph storm and beats Emily 2005 in strength decimates various places in the West Atlantic.
5. The season continues nonstop in August. 6 storms occur in total, with another Category 5 in the Gulf mid-month and a Category 4 landfall on the Eastern Seaboard by late month.
6. SON keep the season alive and active, generating numerous landfalls and impacts. One December tropical storm occurs in the open ocean. In total, 31 named storms, while 16 hurricanes and 8 majors form. The Storm2k indicators thread for that year reaches a whopping 1,000 pages long.

Oh, don't forget an MJO that is always favorable for the Atlantic (Phases VIII, I, or II)

[USTropics]

Just because the MDR is dead and stable now doesn't mean it will be that way all season. Elsa did struggle, yes, but the fact it became a hurricane in the deep tropics in early July was impressive and extremely rare. It survived the entire trek from the MDR to the US as at least a TS, which doesn't happen very often. Even in some relatively cool MDR years we sometimes will still see a strong storm in the MDR. I'm not expecting this season to be as active as 2020, or as intense as 2004 or 2017, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that we get at least one powerful MDR longtracker.

The MDR can take a long time to get going, and it's pretty important to note that 2017, despite being as intense as it was, did not have a hurricane in the MDR until Irma on August 31. The real Cabo Verde season will likely begin in earnest in about 3-4 weeks, but the strongest MDR storms are usually in September.

Elsa was an extremely rare event. How rare? There are only 5 storms since 1850 to have attained hurricane status in the MDR (20-10N) and east of the Caribbean in June-July:

Elsa 2021
Beryl 2018
Bertha 1996
Unnamed 1933
Unnamed 1867

If we extend the MDR into the Caribbean, the list includes just 18 named storms since 1850:

Elsa 2021 (not featured)
Beryl 2018
Dennis 2005
Emily 2005
Claudette 2003
Bertha 1996
Cesar 1996
Alma 1966
Anna 1961
Abby 1960
Unnamed 1933
Unnamed 1926
Unnamed 1904
Unnamed 1899
Unnamed 1893
Unnamed 1887
Unnamed 1886
Unnamed 1876

[Shell Mound]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Let’s see how that prediction verifies come November 30, which I think will age like milk. If the tropical Atlantic is so stable, why did we have several MDR invests in June and a (fast-moving) July MDR/Caribbean hurricane? If the Atlantic were really that stable Elsa wouldn’t have formed and the invests wouldn’t have even existed most likely. I can guarantee there will be at least some long trackers in the MDR and Caribbean this year. Everyone suddenly is downcasting as usual just because of a suppressed CCKW moving through which should be gone soon, and then we’ll really see things lighten up in a few weeks.

I'm predicting 19 named storms and a significantly enhanced risk of a major impact on the Gulf and East Coast this year.

A total of nineteen NS seems rather high, but I am assuming you are utilising the NHC's lenient criteria. As far as major impacts are concerned, wouldn't a dry MDR tend to favour storms that are smaller in size? If so, then maybe any major storm that hits land in 2021 will be similar to Andrew or Charley, and would only be a localised severe-wind threat, as opposed to a large storm that would deliver surge, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes over a wider area. On another note, do you think that the warm subtropics have contributed to a stable MDR post 2017?

[MarioProtVI]

Just because the MDR is dead and stable now doesn't mean it will be that way all season. Elsa did struggle, yes, but the fact it became a hurricane in the deep tropics in early July was impressive and extremely rare. It survived the entire trek from the MDR to the US as at least a TS, which doesn't happen very often. Even in some relatively cool MDR years we sometimes will still see a strong storm in the MDR. I'm not expecting this season to be as active as 2020, or as intense as 2004 or 2017, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that we get at least one powerful MDR longtracker.

The MDR can take a long time to get going, and it's pretty important to note that 2017, despite being as intense as it was, did not have a hurricane in the MDR until Irma on August 31. The real Cabo Verde season will likely begin in earnest in about 3-4 weeks, but the strongest MDR storms are usually in September.

Elsa was an extremely rare event. How rare? There are only 5 storms since 1850 to have attained hurricane status in the MDR (20-10N) and east of the Caribbean in June-July:

Elsa 2021
Beryl 2018
Bertha 1996
Unnamed 1933
Unnamed 1867

If we extend the MDR into the Caribbean, the list includes just 18 named storms since 1850:

Elsa 2021 (not featured)
Beryl 2018
Dennis 2005
Emily 2005
Claudette 2003
Bertha 1996
Cesar 1996
Alma 1966
Anna 1961
Abby 1960
Unnamed 1933
Unnamed 1926
Unnamed 1904
Unnamed 1899
Unnamed 1893
Unnamed 1887
Unnamed 1886
Unnamed 1876

https://i.imgur.com/TlSkKrp.png

The first list, with the exception of 1867 (near where records start) and 2018 (only moderately active), were ACE-heavy years. Second has 1893 1887 in it too. All high ACE years too especially 1893 as there were definitely several storms stronger then analyzed like the “forever Cat 3” one which I’m sure was C4 at some point. Shows that Elsa most likely could be a harbinger of what’s to come

[BYG Jacob]

Based on things right now, it doesn't look like we're gonna get a Maria, Irma, or Isabel. However, just like last year showed, delayed development and a western favored Atlantic is probably the worst-case scenario.

[aspen]

Based on things right now, it doesn't look like we're gonna get a Maria, Irma, or Isabel. However, just like last year showed, delayed development and a western favored Atlantic is probably the worst-case scenario.

I think Maria formed in a similar position to Elsa, so I definitely won’t exclude the possibility of strong systems forming in the western MDR close to the Caribbean. That’s where Felix originated too. But I will agree that something like Irma — forming in the very easternmost MDR, quickly becoming a hurricane, and spending many days as a major — is probably unlikely now.

[Category5Kaiju]

Based on things right now, it doesn't look like we're gonna get a Maria, Irma, or Isabel. However, just like last year showed, delayed development and a western favored Atlantic is probably the worst-case scenario.

I think Maria formed in a similar position to Elsa, so I definitely won’t exclude the possibility of strong systems forming in the western MDR close to the Caribbean. That’s where Felix originated too. But I will agree that something like Irma — forming in the very easternmost MDR, quickly becoming a hurricane, and spending many days as a major — is probably unlikely now.

Irma was just an anomaly of its time, spending nearly 2 days straight as a Category 5 and generating 65 ACE by itself. I am definitely not sure whether this year would feature such an impressive, long track hurricane, but we'll see.

[Blown Away]

My goodness is July.

July - Early August is the calm before the storm... You can almost feel the energy out there is ready to pop!

Cycloneye, congrats on the Admin and getting your name in that cool red...

[AlphaToOmega]

My goodness is July.

July - Early August is the calm before the storm... You can almost feel the energy out there is ready to pop!

Cycloneye, congrats on the Admin and getting your name in that cool red...

In a way, a quiet late July will likely mean an even worse August. Cold water is not being upwelled. Combined with the fact that oceans naturally warm come August and September, conditions will likely be very ripe for tropical development. It is even possible we match or exceed the August of 2004. 2004 had no tropical activity until July 31.

[cycloneye]

My goodness is July.

July - Early August is the calm before the storm... You can almost feel the energy out there is ready to pop!

Cycloneye, congrats on the Admin and getting your name in that cool red...

Off Topic=Thank you.

[ElectricStorm]

2018 was supposed to be a dead MDR year and it produced a Cat 4 that made it all the way across so I think it's too early to say that we won't be seeing any long trackers this year, considering this year should have more favorable conditions overall than 2018 did...