2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ianswfl]

There it is. The short range 240hr euro ensembles now have an eastern Gulf storm for next weekend as well.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks

GFS, CMC, and Euro ensembles all show something now.

[ThunderForce]

I'm curious why the GEFS ensembles are showcasing a right hook into the FL peninsula between the 20th and 21st when they (and the operational GFS) literally show high pressure over FL during this period. Climo or not, how would it be able to move eastward in this case?

[Ianswfl]

I'm curious why the GEFS ensembles are showcasing a right hook into the FL peninsula between the 20th and 21st when they (and the operational GFS) literally show high pressure over FL during this period. Climo or not, how would it be able to move eastward in this case?

18z gfs showing more juice down there now, tries to spin something but shear.

[zzzh]

Surface high pressure means cold air. That system is steered by mid level trough.

[USTropics]

I'm curious why the GEFS ensembles are showcasing a right hook into the FL peninsula between the 20th and 21st when they (and the operational GFS) literally show high pressure over FL during this period. Climo or not, how would it be able to move eastward in this case?

It's about timing. Operational models show a shortwave trough pushing eastward, with the 12z ECMWF a full day ahead in its progression:


Compared to the 18z GFS:


The GEFS members are seeing a faster shortwave trough that breaks down the ridging on the 20th.

[ThunderForce]

I'm curious why the GEFS ensembles are showcasing a right hook into the FL peninsula between the 20th and 21st when they (and the operational GFS) literally show high pressure over FL during this period. Climo or not, how would it be able to move eastward in this case?

It's about timing. Operational models show a shortwave trough pushing eastward, with the 12z ECMWF a full day ahead in its progression:
https://i.imgur.com/r0MKA2h.png

Compared to the 18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/v2GxbJU.png

The GEFS members are seeing a faster shortwave trough that breaks down the ridging on the 20th.

Ah, I guess that makes sense. I can't help but be very concerned whenever I see anything enter the Gulf now after Michael tore through my area and caused major destruction everywhere, as well as storms like Ian that caused major damage in South FL, so when I see signals that show something could develop in the area it spooks me.

[ThunderForce]

12z GEFS has an increase in members for a Western Caribbean storm compared to the 06z run, with lows popping in as early as the 17th. At least two of them become hurricanes not too long afterward, and both make landfall somewhere. Both of them make landfall in the Yucatan as hurricanes while one of them additionally gets in the Gulf and makes a hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle in... basically the same location as Michael.



Obviously a while away still, but it's rather concerning regardless. Feels like a complete 180 from the last run, where most members were weaker in comparison and quickly darted northeastward as weak low pressures.

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS has an increase in members for a Western Caribbean storm compared to the 06z run, with lows popping in as early as the 17th. At least two of them become hurricanes not too long afterward, and both make landfall somewhere. Both of them make landfall in the Yucatan as hurricanes while one of them additionally gets in the Gulf and makes a hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle in... basically the same location as Michael.

https://i.imgur.com/KBi00Dw.png

Obviously a while away still, but it's rather concerning regardless. Feels like a complete 180 from the last run, where most members were weaker in comparison and quickly darted northeastward as weak low pressures.

Classic GFS/GEFS Caribbean bias potentially. If we see the Euro ensemble perk up I'd pay more attention And some deterministic runs.

[Ianswfl]

12z GEFS has an increase in members for a Western Caribbean storm compared to the 06z run, with lows popping in as early as the 17th. At least two of them become hurricanes not too long afterward, and both make landfall somewhere. Both of them make landfall in the Yucatan as hurricanes while one of them additionally gets in the Gulf and makes a hurricane landfall in the FL Panhandle in... basically the same location as Michael.

https://i.imgur.com/KBi00Dw.png

Obviously a while away still, but it's rather concerning regardless. Feels like a complete 180 from the last run, where most members were weaker in comparison and quickly darted northeastward as weak low pressures.

Classic GFS/GEFS Caribbean bias potentially. If we see the Euro ensemble perk up I'd pay more attention And some deterministic runs.

They did yesterday. A few euro ensembles has a ts in the eastern gulf now.

[Ianswfl]

Short range 240hr ensembles for the euro just came out. Big shift west with our MDR systems.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[Ianswfl]

18z gfs next weekend trying to form a very sheared out weak tropical storm in the NW Caribbean that moves into the eastern gulf. heavily sheared but down to 999mb and a bit stronger than the 12z. Euro ensembles hinted at it too. Wouldn't be shocked a sloppy TS for the eastern gulf and west coast of FL next weekend. Sloppy a lot of rain.

[Ianswfl]

00z gfs ensembles back to showing something brewing next week in the carribean again.

[Ianswfl]

Both the 12z and the shortrange 18z euro ensembles hinting and nw Caribbean action. 18z starts it a bit sooner.

[Ianswfl]

12z euro ensembles getting pretty active in the Western Caribbean late in the period.

So this is all three major ensembles models showing action late. Canadian goes nuts.

Euro EPS


CMC



GFS GEFS also trying to give us a long track MDR storm on Halloween lol.

[NotSparta]

What has happened to this thread? Nothing lately but unnecessary posts about isolated long range ensembles. If there aren't any actual model signals right now there's no need to post in here

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1713728943516221653




Image copy

[mantis83]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1713728943516221653




Image copy

https://i.imgur.com/sRftOZ8.png

Euro for the win! as per usual....and since it's not showing any west carribean development, see ya next year!

[SFLcane]

Stay on top of those GEFS/GPS ensembles something will pop by June 2024

[boca]

It looks like everything is now shut down from El Niño west of 70 west. Bring on the cold fronts.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

What has happened to this thread? Nothing lately but unnecessary posts about isolated long range ensembles. If there aren't any actual model signals right now there's no need to post in here

Yeahhhhh it's getting a little spammy honestly. It's good to remain vigilant of any clues for potential development but we need to pump the brakes a bit here.