2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[REDHurricane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tgB908Kx/NHC-8am.jpg [/url]

If the upper level conditions were not unfavorable we can clearly see how the hyper active season would have played out...

Would have? It's only September 5 and there are still 86 days left in the official hurricane season... a lot can happen in 86 days, especially when conditions appear to be set up favorably for possible late-September/early October MDR systems as well as Caribbean shenanigans through October and November. The MJO forcing currently allowing the WPAC to produce the strongest TC of the year so far worldwide and then likely an even stronger one right behind it can and will shift back over at some point. Whatever weird sh!t is going on this season that's keeping the lid on the Atlantic is liable to change at any moment, and there's more than enough time for that to happen where it ends up meeting the hyperactive season threshold anyway -- doesn't seem super likely right now, but it's still likely enough to not talk about this season in past tense already lol

Once cold fronts start sweeping through Florida, it basically unofficially ends. That’s not 86 days away…more like maybe 30-45. Yeah there could be a couple weak ones that pop up and add to the name total, but I always look for that first cold front to sweep through Florida as kind of the end to the season. It’s very rare anything significant forms and affects the US after that. This isn’t 2005 or 2020.

This probably isn't going to end up like 2005 or 2020 did in October/November, but it's probable enough that we shouldn't be completely discounting the possibility of a crazy backloaded season this year. The Caribbean is still at record or near-record SSTs and OHC, La Niña is really starting to assert itself now, the WAM will shift back towards its usual TC-producing latitude, and like I said the MJO forcing will eventually make its way back to the Atlantic for at least some period of time over the next almost 3 months. I'm not saying I think it's definitely going to happen, just that I don't think it for sure won't happen and it's way too early to be speaking with such certainties imo

[LadyBug72]

I have a question and if this isn't the right place to ask, please delete. The icon is showing a storm moving into LA. Is it picking up on the Caribbean lemon only or is it pushing the GOM lemon south and merge them? Just trying to learn. Thank you.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tgB908Kx/NHC-8am.jpg [/url]

If the upper level conditions were not unfavorable we can clearly see how the hyper active season would have played out...

Would have? It's only September 5 and there are still 86 days left in the official hurricane season... a lot can happen in 86 days, especially when conditions appear to be set up favorably for possible late-September/early October MDR systems as well as Caribbean shenanigans through October and November. The MJO forcing currently allowing the WPAC to produce the strongest TC of the year so far worldwide and then likely an even stronger one right behind it can and will shift back over at some point. Whatever weird sh!t is going on this season that's keeping the lid on the Atlantic is liable to change at any moment, and there's more than enough time for that to happen where it ends up meeting the hyperactive season threshold anyway -- doesn't seem super likely right now, but it's still likely enough to not talk about this season in past tense already lol

Once cold fronts start sweeping through Florida, it basically unofficially ends. That’s not 86 days away…more like maybe 30-45. Yeah there could be a couple weak ones that pop up and add to the name total, but I always look for that first cold front to sweep through Florida as kind of the end to the season. It’s very rare anything significant forms and affects the US after that. This isn’t 2005 or 2020.

Correct, that usually happens around ~October 20th. Most of the ACE is generated in early/mid-September, so if we go all next week without even a named storm, that's a death nail for the season unless October has an unprecedented level of hyperactivity.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Would have? It's only September 5 and there are still 86 days left in the official hurricane season... a lot can happen in 86 days, especially when conditions appear to be set up favorably for possible late-September/early October MDR systems as well as Caribbean shenanigans through October and November. The MJO forcing currently allowing the WPAC to produce the strongest TC of the year so far worldwide and then likely an even stronger one right behind it can and will shift back over at some point. Whatever weird sh!t is going on this season that's keeping the lid on the Atlantic is liable to change at any moment, and there's more than enough time for that to happen where it ends up meeting the hyperactive season threshold anyway -- doesn't seem super likely right now, but it's still likely enough to not talk about this season in past tense already lol

Once cold fronts start sweeping through Florida, it basically unofficially ends. That’s not 86 days away…more like maybe 30-45. Yeah there could be a couple weak ones that pop up and add to the name total, but I always look for that first cold front to sweep through Florida as kind of the end to the season. It’s very rare anything significant forms and affects the US after that. This isn’t 2005 or 2020.

Correct, that usually happens around ~October 20th. Most of the ACE is generated in early/mid-September, so if we go all next week without even a named storm, that's a death nail for the season unless October has an unprecedented level of hyperactivity.

Late September through mid October is the peak of the season in Bermuda. The paths really shift away from CONUS in that timeframe. After all the hype it really is looking like CONUS could be spared this season.

[caneman]

Once cold fronts start sweeping through Florida, it basically unofficially ends. That’s not 86 days away…more like maybe 30-45. Yeah there could be a couple weak ones that pop up and add to the name total, but I always look for that first cold front to sweep through Florida as kind of the end to the season. It’s very rare anything significant forms and affects the US after that. This isn’t 2005 or 2020.

Correct, that usually happens around ~October 20th. Most of the ACE is generated in early/mid-September, so if we go all next week without even a named storm, that's a death nail for the season unless October has an unprecedented level of hyperactivity.

Late September through mid October is the peak of the season in Bermuda. The paths really shift away from CONUS in that timeframe. After all the hype it really is looking like CONUS could be spared this season.

Incorrect. Not true for the west coast of Florida.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Correct, that usually happens around ~October 20th. Most of the ACE is generated in early/mid-September, so if we go all next week without even a named storm, that's a death nail for the season unless October has an unprecedented level of hyperactivity.

Late September through mid October is the peak of the season in Bermuda. The paths really shift away from CONUS in that timeframe. After all the hype it really is looking like CONUS could be spared this season.

Incorrect. Not true for the west coast of Florida.

Florida gets twice as many in September as it does in October: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F ... hurricanes

[zal0phus]

The timeline seems to roughly line up with 1998 thus far- we had an early long-tracking major, some minor hurricanes, and a good chance of Gulf slop soon. I wonder if that's the ceiling for this season. With invests suddenly getting tagged, a turnaround could be in sight.

[Stormlover70]

Late September through mid October is the peak of the season in Bermuda. The paths really shift away from CONUS in that timeframe. After all the hype it really is looking like CONUS could be spared this season.

Incorrect. Not true for the west coast of Florida.

Florida gets twice as many in September as it does in October: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F ... hurricanes

The CONUS hasn't been spared....48 dead in CONUS.

[cajungal]

If we get 2 feet of rain for my area from this thing in the gulf, I wouldn’t say the states is spared. We may not get wind damage. But if we flood like we did for Allison, there will be damage and I wouldn’t call that spared even if we don’t get hit by an actual named system

[tolakram]

Let's stay on topic please. We have other threads for seasonal talk.

[jlauderdal]

Once cold fronts start sweeping through Florida, it basically unofficially ends. That’s not 86 days away…more like maybe 30-45. Yeah there could be a couple weak ones that pop up and add to the name total, but I always look for that first cold front to sweep through Florida as kind of the end to the season. It’s very rare anything significant forms and affects the US after that. This isn’t 2005 or 2020.

Correct, that usually happens around ~October 20th. Most of the ACE is generated in early/mid-September, so if we go all next week without even a named storm, that's a death nail for the season unless October has an unprecedented level of hyperactivity.

Late September through mid October is the peak of the season in Bermuda. The paths really shift away from CONUS in that timeframe. After all the hype it really is looking like CONUS could be spared this season.

October is the busiest month on the calendar for Floridians.

[caneman]

Late September through mid October is the peak of the season in Bermuda. The paths really shift away from CONUS in that timeframe. After all the hype it really is looking like CONUS could be spared this season.

Incorrect. Not true for the west coast of Florida.

Florida gets twice as many in September as it does in October: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F ... hurricanes

That has zero to do with the fact that the West coast of Florida is in fact a hot spot for tropical system activity in October.

[SouthFLTropics]

Oh man you gotta love the long range GFS for some good lunch time entertainment. It takes our Western Caribbean wave that we have been watching for what seems like forever and crosses it over and develops it into a hurricane in the EPac. It then makes landfall up near the Baja peninsula and comes all the way back across Mexico and redevelops in the Bay of Campeche at 300+ hours.

[Teban54]

Oh man you gotta love the long range GFS for some good lunch time entertainment. It takes our Western Caribbean wave that we have been watching for what seems like forever and crosses it over and develops it into a hurricane in the EPac. It then makes landfall up near the Baja peninsula and comes all the way back across Mexico and redevelops in the Bay of Campeche at 300+ hours.

Considering the wave left Africa on August 25, and 12z GFS has it as an active, intensifying hurricane on September 21, that has to be one of the longest-living disturbances out there.

Not the longest-lasting as a tropical cyclone, of course. That record is 28 days in the Atlantic (1899 San Ciriaco), and 36 days worldwide (Freddy 2023).

[OuterBanker]

Oh man you gotta love the long range GFS for some good lunch time entertainment. It takes our Western Caribbean wave that we have been watching for what seems like forever and crosses it over and develops it into a hurricane in the EPac. It then makes landfall up near the Baja peninsula and comes all the way back across Mexico and redevelops in the Bay of Campeche at 300+ hours.

Personally, I'm more interested in the cat three heading nw around 68w 29n the end of the 12z run.

We all know how accurate the gfs 360 is

[TomballEd]

Oh man you gotta love the long range GFS for some good lunch time entertainment. It takes our Western Caribbean wave that we have been watching for what seems like forever and crosses it over and develops it into a hurricane in the EPac. It then makes landfall up near the Baja peninsula and comes all the way back across Mexico and redevelops in the Bay of Campeche at 300+ hours.

Personally, I'm more interested in the cat three heading nw around 68w 29n the end of the 12z run.

We all know how accurate the gfs 360 is

In the late 1940s a disturbance was pulled into the BoC then came N to hit near Freeport as a strong Cat 2. One of the very few Texas TC strikes after the Equinox. Late season and Florida, the return of the mid level Westerlies after the Equinox usually shields Texas from Gulf TCs, but can curve them into the Florida Gulf Coast. Michael and Ian come to mind. But a system crossing into the Gulf isn't impossible. 2001 TS Alison was a tropical wave that moved into the Pacific, but was then pulled N by a trough. Or systems pulled into the BoC are rare, but not unheard off.

[aspen]

ICON has a spam-fest of TCs, including that Caribbean wave (which develops in the BoC).

All globals now show a tropical wave emerging in 4-5 days and having a shot at developing in the MDR. We’ll see if that verifies.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ICON has a spam-fest of TCs, including that Caribbean wave (which develops in the BoC).

All globals now show a tropical wave emerging in 4-5 days and having a shot at developing in the MDR. We’ll see if that verifies.

Yeah, that latter storm emerging in 4-5 days appears to be an actual signal now. We'll see if they can maintain any sort of consistency though.

[DunedinDave]

Correct, that usually happens around ~October 20th. Most of the ACE is generated in early/mid-September, so if we go all next week without even a named storm, that's a death nail for the season unless October has an unprecedented level of hyperactivity.

Late September through mid October is the peak of the season in Bermuda. The paths really shift away from CONUS in that timeframe. After all the hype it really is looking like CONUS could be spared this season.

October is the busiest month on the calendar for Floridians.

Sometimes. Depends on the fronts. I’ve seen cold fronts come through here early and basically end the season by Oct 15. Other times the Caribbean is a hot zone of activity, sending storms into the eastern gulf 2 or 3 times in one month.

Honestly we’ve had so much rain here in Clearwater area I am praying for no storms. We can’t take anymore water.

[caneman]

Late September through mid October is the peak of the season in Bermuda. The paths really shift away from CONUS in that timeframe. After all the hype it really is looking like CONUS could be spared this season.

October is the busiest month on the calendar for Floridians.

Sometimes. Depends on the fronts. I’ve seen cold fronts come through here early and basically end the season by Oct 15. Other times the Caribbean is a hot zone of activity, sending storms into the eastern gulf 2 or 3 times in one month.

Honestly we’ve had so much rain here in Clearwater area I am praying for no storms. We can’t take anymore water.

Agree I'm in the Indian Rocks area. It's been crazy!