2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1721 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:08 pm

Today, this thread has gotten very good discussions about some indicators and guess what, here are much more.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1547623614064631809

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1547625061275684869

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1547625440591851521

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547626812938731521

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1547627285129203719

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1547627700440797186

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1547629834762760193

skyline385 · #1722 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:17 pm

Was going to post the same thread, very interesting discussion in it. Lots of uncertainties with the MJO still and whether the strong -IOD will affect the WAM. As Levi mentioned there is potential for the sinking cell extending too far from the east to affect the WAM.

#1723 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:31 pm

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1547627097421594628

#1724 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:38 pm

Not sure what about this season suggests that 1995, 2004, 2005, 2017, or 2020 should be included as analogs? :lol:

Category5Kaiju · #1725 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:52 pm

SFLcane wrote:Not sure what about this season suggests that 1995, 2004, 2005, 2017, or 2020 should be included as analogs?

What do they all have in common?

Had 200+ ACE (well, aside from 2020 I suppose).

That's pretty much it. Oh, and at least one major CONUS landfall. But yeah, not exactly sure where he got those years in particular otherwise

#1726 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:56 pm

Yea, lets just crank 10 hurricanes through the caribbean how about no. Sorry not buying all that dryness over the sw atlantic. :roll:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1547666389426913280

#1727 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:08 pm

SFLcane wrote:Yea, lets just crank 10 hurricanes through the caribbean how about no. Sorry not buying all that dryness over the sw atlantic.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1547666389426913280?s=20&t=J49BNoRBPTyyDkpbRlLIoA

Either a potential bust is coming but no way there isn't that many hurricanes going into the caribbean. Something just does not add up with these climate models.

captainbarbossa19 · #1728 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:16 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Yea, lets just crank 10 hurricanes through the caribbean how about no. Sorry not buying all that dryness over the sw atlantic.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1547666389426913280?s=20&t=J49BNoRBPTyyDkpbRlLIoA

Either a potential bust is coming but no way there isn't that many hurricanes going into the caribbean. Something just does not add up with these climate models.

I think the only thing really useful about this map is that the MDR is depicted as being wet. Climate models can pickup on height anomalies, but a storm can easily move north of the Caribbean if the ridge is weaker. Smaller scale features will be more important when something actually forms.

#1729 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:21 pm

Tutt is gone on the new eps weeklies across the sw atl i dont get. It's showing TC development favored in the Pacific through mid August. :double:

skyline385 · #1730 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:24 pm

A reminder regarding looking for TUTTs on extended forecasts

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1545403605150310402

#1731 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:31 pm

The Tutt indeed looks pretty weak. I think everything is just getting pushed into the Pacific.

skyline385 · #1732 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:31 pm

EPS weeklies still seeing suppressed Atlantic till mid-August

skyline385 · #1733 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:33 pm

SFLcane wrote:The Tutt indeed looks pretty weak. I think everything is just getting pushed into the Pacific.

Yea the EPS is predicting increased activity above climate mean for EPAC in August and combined with the ridging anticipated it does look like everything is getting pushed out.

#1734 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:35 pm

skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:The Tutt indeed looks pretty weak. I think everything is just getting pushed into the Pacific.

Yea the EPS is predicting increased activity above climate mean for EPAC in August and combined with the ridging anticipated it does look like everything is getting pushed out.

If and that is a big if, that happens, give the ACE crown of 2022 to EPAC.

skyline385 · #1735 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:The Tutt indeed looks pretty weak. I think everything is just getting pushed into the Pacific.

Yea the EPS is predicting increased activity above climate mean for EPAC in August and combined with the ridging anticipated it does look like everything is getting pushed out.

If and that is a big if, that happens, give the ACE crown of 2022 to EPAC.

Yea that is a big IF but I want it to happen just for the sheer ridiculousness of it, EPAC getting the ACE crown in a strong Nina year.

skyline385 · #1736 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:48 pm

Yea that’s some ridiculous ridging on the weekly, everything is pushed below the Antilles till end of August. This is definitely suspect imo. EPAC still at it because of it.

#1737 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:03 pm

skyline385 wrote:I guess this needs to be said because it’s not obvious enough, nobody is denying that the Atlantic will go nuts in peak season. My posts above are only me sharing the EPS weeklies and my thoughts on it. These season cancel posts are incredibly frustrating and really add nothing to the discussion here, i thought Mark wanted a serious discussion of the indicators here. If that is not the intent then i will stop posting these.

Yes. All the fellow admins are with this thread not falling to back and forth between members or having season canceled posts and instead, good discussions about the indicators.

#1738 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:37 pm

Weeklies did back off Pacific MJO at peak so that's interesting.

Category5Kaiju · #1739 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:40 pm

I think a good question to ask would be why the EPS thinks all of the moisture/waves would be shoved into the EPAC and not the Atlantic? Is ridging simply that strong or is it something else? Iirc last year, we had a similar issue near the end of the season, but that was mainly thanks to the potent Atlantic Nino that focused the ITCZ southward. Doesn't look like we have an Atlantic Nino this time, let alone a warmer than normal Gulf of Guinea.

weeniepatrol · #1740 Postby **weeniepatrol** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:42 pm

VP200a are the most favorable in the last decade excluding 2021, but this explained by the suppressed MJO overhead the basin since July. Per the EPS, it will be replaced by the active phase around month's end. GFS erroneously handling intraseasonal forcing has already been discussed previously. Very favorable look

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