2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

0z Eurohttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200830/246c18448f4bc367a6a82db919414f26.jpg


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Tropical tidbits is down for me.

[SFLcane]

[Frank2]

This map bothered me when it came out and still bothers me. He might was well paint the whole Atlantic red. Then he’ll never technically be wrong.

Lol - it's that old "In weather a person can only be 50% wrong" issue I was explaining in another post a few weeks ago!

[MetroMike]

0z Eurohttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200830/246c18448f4bc367a6a82db919414f26.jpg


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Tropical tidbits is down for me.

Yes it is pretty much unusable, too bad there are no good alternatives.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z Eurohttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200830/246c18448f4bc367a6a82db919414f26.jpg


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Tropical tidbits is down for me.

Yes it is pretty much unusable, too bad there are no good alternatives.

Pivotal weather is good. In some cases they have more data, and I like their model soundings better. Can’t animate model runs though unless you pay for it.

[AnnularCane]

It's working fine for me right now. Has the problem been resolved?

[cycloneye]

:eek:

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/30/cd76370b63a9c9b53728153fde1c0362-full.png

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/30/1683936b2717f1003e8eaa3de753ac01-full.png

Well, let's see the next runs to see consistency.

[plasticup]

:eek:

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/30/cd76370b63a9c9b53728153fde1c0362-full.png

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/30/1683936b2717f1003e8eaa3de753ac01-full.png

240 hours. Hard to get overly excited about that until we have some inter-run consistency.

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/30/cd76370b63a9c9b53728153fde1c0362-full.png

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/30/1683936b2717f1003e8eaa3de753ac01-full.png

240 hours. Hard to get overly excited about that.

Obviously.. nearing peak but something to watch.

[toad strangler]

:eek:

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/30/cd76370b63a9c9b53728153fde1c0362-full.png

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/30/1683936b2717f1003e8eaa3de753ac01-full.png

240 hours. Hard to get overly excited about that until we have some inter-run consistency.

Model inter-run consistency? Medium to longer range? Nah, I'll give that a shot again in 2021.

[gatorcane]

What happened to the mega trough over the eastern CONUS? Animation from 120 to 240 hours below:

[SFLcane]

What happened to the mega trough over the eastern CONUS? Animation from 120 to 240 hours below:

https://i.postimg.cc/pV1JWy0j/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-240.gif

Wow!!

[SconnieCane]

What happened to the mega trough over the eastern CONUS? Animation from 120 to 240 hours below:

https://i.postimg.cc/pV1JWy0j/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-240.gif

Some people way too eager to sound the all clear for the CONUS based on a few long-range model runs (particularly of the GFS-which has a notorious long-range bias toward eastern US longwave troughing in the late summer/early fall).

[Hammy]

What happened to the mega trough over the eastern CONUS? Animation from 120 to 240 hours below:

https://i.postimg.cc/pV1JWy0j/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-240.gif

Models do this all the time during winter and we end up 20-30 degrees warmer in reality than the long range so I never trust a trough that far out.

[sma10]

So things are getting complicated in the central atlantic. It looks like lemon #4 is down to 0/20 with development now unlikely. However, i am thinking in a day or two, a new lemon will be introduced for the area around 15n 45w. Seems GFS and Euro do want to slowly develop this area over time and then send towards the Leewards

[AnnularCane]

So things are getting complicated in the central atlantic. It looks like lemon #4 is down to 0/20 with development now unlikely. However, i am thinking in a day or two, a new lemon will be introduced for the area around 15n 45w. Seems GFS and Euro do want to slowly develop this area over time and then send towards the Leewards

Isn't that new lemon the wave over Africa?

[sma10]

So things are getting complicated in the central atlantic. It looks like lemon #4 is down to 0/20 with development now unlikely. However, i am thinking in a day or two, a new lemon will be introduced for the area around 15n 45w. Seems GFS and Euro do want to slowly develop this area over time and then send towards the Leewards

Isn't that new lemon the wave over Africa?

That is yet another lemon

[Hammy]

So things are getting complicated in the central atlantic. It looks like lemon #4 is down to 0/20 with development now unlikely. However, i am thinking in a day or two, a new lemon will be introduced for the area around 15n 45w. Seems GFS and Euro do want to slowly develop this area over time and then send towards the Leewards

Isn't that new lemon the wave over Africa?

That is yet another lemon

Seems pretty clear that somewhere in this gyre a storm or two will develop, but the the models and forecasters simply haven't figured out exactly where yet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FWIW, 12z GFS Para shows multiple hurricanes trekking through the Atlantic and develops 99L.

[TheStormExpert]

What happened to the mega trough over the eastern CONUS? Animation from 120 to 240 hours below:

https://i.postimg.cc/pV1JWy0j/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-240.gif

Wow!!

I told you the models would change!